Looking Live at NFL Week 1, 2025

The start of the football season varies for most people. For my dad, probably Labor Day. For me, Guess The Lines for week 1 on the Bill Simmons podcast. I have been miseribly awaiting for the NFL to return. Don’t talk to me about pre-season. Nobody likes army rations. We all suffered a sports draught this past July and August with no NBA and no Olympics. Love ya MLB but you can’t fill my fix. Neither could ESPN, FS1, and all the other media outlets. Even today, Labor Day, feels like the first day we’re getting serious football coverage, CFB or NFL.

I’m dying to be inundated with football talk, can’t get enough, and I’m just not getting it. Sure, Guess The Lines dropped last night but I want more. Where is it? Hopefully as ramp up to Thursday’s season opener kicks in we’ll have more non-stop NFL programming. We need to hear more about player injuries (some key ones coming up!) and betting trends. There are 9 divisional games in week 1, the most in week 1 since 2020, so you’d think we’d hear more about divisional trends. Well the Action Network has the goods. Week 1 divisional home dogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010. Point? Over the past 15 years home divisional dogs cover greater than 76% of the time in week 1. In the past 7 years that rate is over 83%!

Let’s look big picture now. Underdogs, in week 1, of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since 2006. Dogs are under .500 ATS in just 1 of those 19 seasons. We’ve got 4 matchups in week 1 of 6.5 or higher. Best believe folks will betting on those dogs to cover. Since 2016, underdogs are 132-90-6 ATS in week 1 covering 60% of the spread. Dogs are at least .500 ATS or better every single year the last 9 years. Basically, if in doubt bet the dogs, which is music to my ears. I picked 8 dogs in week 1, speaking of which I decided to track my picks each week (for better or worse) for the public to see.

I may not be podcasting anymore or have the same time to research as I did in the past, but dammit I need this action. Every week I still want to go through this like a routine. Who cares if I suck at it. I HAD TO GET ON MAN!!! Ok, enough posturing. Here are my three favorites of week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons, O/U 46 ½

Soooooooo… I know a few paragraphs ago I wrote divisional home dogs in the past 7 years cover 83% of the time in week 1… But I’m taking my Bucs to cover on in Atlanta. While many have the Falcons offensive line ranked in the top 10 this offseason, I do not, they lost starting RT Kaleb McGary for the season. McGary was arguably their most valuable player lead blocking for RB Bijan Robinson and protecting the blindside of the left-handed franchise QB Michael Penix Jr. This is Penix’s first season at the helm from jump street. Losing a blue chipper like McGary will haunt this team for the entire 2025 campaign.

The Falcons have addressed this problem by shifting Elijah Wilkinson and trading for Michael Jerrell. These are band-aids players not replacements for McGary. Wilkinson had penalty problems in the past, which bodes well for Super Bowl level Bucs defense. And yes, the Bucs have injury problems too with LT Tristan Wirfs out a few weeks, but the Bucs have known this for several weeks now while the Falcons lost McGary 6 days ago. Overall, I have liked this Bucs team since they acquired QB Baker Mayfield. This year feels like it could be special run with this group. GM, Head Coach, and QB advantage for the Bucs over the Falcons all day everyday for me. While I’m excited to watch Penix run this thing from training camp onward he hasn’t faced this defense before. Also, until proven otherwise, Atlanta’s defense is a joke. Bucs cover and give me over as well.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 47 ½

Cleveland can never justify letting Joe Flacco walk prior to the 2024 campaign. I remind you Flacco signed with the Colts as a backup instead. Watson had a lengthy injury history to begin with. Why not pay for a proven insurance plan? While the Bengals played their starters in the pre-season I’m not buying they’ll magically start faster in the first month of the season. Especially against a rival whose defense will punish them win, lose, or draw. I repeat again, divisional home dogs in week 1 cover over 83% of the time. While the line is under 6.5 I still buy into the data of big dogs covering most of the time in week 1. This may be my favorite spread of the week and I’ll be honing in on the Browns these first 4 weeks as they face 4 Super Bowl contenders in the early Sunday window. I’m assuming they’ll be big to big-ish dogs in each game. I like them a lot right now. Admittedly it’s a gut feeling more than data driven decision. Browns cover. Under 47.5 which is just too damn high.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-6.5), O/U 45 ½

I’ll be honest, half the reason for picking this spread is so I can refer to the Commanders as The Condoms, and for week 1 get a pregnancy test. Abdul Carter and Sexy Dexy are going to get more penetration than Michael B. Jordan at a sorority party. The Condoms won’t cover this time. Last season was magical and a complete organizational and brand rebound for the Condoms, yet they faced very few top tier QBs. Sure they beat Joe Burrow but the Bengals overall were a disappointment. This season they play multiple playoff QBs and face the AFC West. Dogs in week 1 of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since over the past 19 years. Giants win total is set at 5.5 but I expect this team to be frisky dog with the defense alone. Down the road with QB Jaxson Dart at the helm perhaps the team could be a hot team to fade or perhaps bandwagon with. Either way I expect the Giants to see big spreads and salivate my dog chops. Give me the Giants to cover and under 45.5.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Mick Haupt

Music Wire #11

I think I finally figured out what “Music Wire” is supposed to be. 3 years ago I tried writing this eleventh edition but it’ll live in my drafts until the server dies. Never could figure out what this series was supposed to be. I took these things so seriously like anyone would ever actually read this garbáge. I cared too much, and 6 years later I don’t at all.

This series will just be a few hundred words about new LPs I’ve acquired, concerts, news, and current listenings. Nothing specific or planned with each new entry. Just been feeling the need to do this, typing, whatever that means in 2025, or this mortal coil.

3 years ago Brutus crafted their best record (so far) and personally one of the best in 2022. A strong year in its own right, Unison Life stood out by refining their style from 2019’s Nest which I found during COVID. While raw and less cohesive from track to track Nest still presented the band’s unique structure. Female lead vocals who also played drums, take some old plays out of the Deftones gameplan, sprinkle some blackgaze with the vocalist’s big voice.

On Unison Life however these elements are pieced together smoothly, intentionally, and delve deeper into the shoegaze subgenre’s bag of tricks. More dreamy little coloring and soundscapes. If Deafheaven pushed “blackgaze” forward into popular consciousness, then Brutus is pushing what I call desertgaze. What is that exactly? Imagine a recording studio in the Coachella valley, say Joshua Tree, and Deafheaven, Deftones, and Kyuss are all hanging out sharing ideas, gear, and peyote. This album scratches those grains of sand.

Oddly I haven’t played that album in at least a year. Still held up. I’ll have to account for why it took so long to revisit these songs. Checking in on the band they recently finished a tour with no new shows on their schedule. Hopefully they’re head to a recording studio to track their next project. I’m sure looking out for it.

Yet another record I hadn’t popped on for years, at least 2 if not 3. Snagged one of only 2000 copies during the height of COVID in August of 2020. Played that record over and over again. Listening back to Comadre’s self-titled, and only studio album, reminded me a lot of Touché Amoré’s Stage Four and Lament. Kind of impressive considering those albums came years after Comadre disbanding. Screamo in the present general reminds me of this record. Their loud and chaotic energy definitely comes from Rites of Spring, but with better guitar playing and brighter guitar tone.

Surprise suprise, Comadre guitarist Jack Shirley has spent the last 15 years producing records which have push many subgenres forward. Sunbather by Deafheaven. Sway by Whirr. Of All Things I Will Soon Grow Tired by Joyce Manor. Post- by Jeff Rosenstock. Many of Jack’s records I own and adore, particularly Sway and Deafheaven’s first demo and Roads to Judah. We will in the age of paying attention to producers and showrunners. Jack is someone I check in to see what he’s working on. Check out Suburban Electric by Telethon mixed and mastered by Jack this year.

A few months back at Doc’s Records I came across Big Country’s sophomore album Steeltown in the new arrival bin of used records. Never heard this one but I love their debut album The Crossing which I found thanks to those VH1 nostalgia programs back in the 2000s. Generally presented as a forgettable 80’s one hit wonder with “In a Big Country” but certainly not to the celtic folk. My good friend Jake gave me The Crossing on vinyl one summer when we were helping clean out his garage. Jake had a bunch of solid records in storage, but The Crossing was by far the best of the bunch he gave me.

While their debut has some general themes and disputably celtic in style Steeltown focuses on the plight of Scottish workers experiencing industrial decline and moving into manufacturing cities to put food on the table. I read several accounts the album failed, relatively, in the US due to it’s unrelatable themes. Can’t say I’m surprised the American public in 1984 was woefully unaware Ronald Reagan was fucking them out of a better future. Ask all the farmers who weren’t bailed out after voting for Reagan to help them out after the US government put them in arrears.

Over 40 years later Steeltown surpasses The Crossing musically and thematically. Having not listened to their entire discography I can’t state fully informed opinion; however, consensus says it’s their best work. Lead vocalist and guitarist Stuart Adamson took his song writing and guitar playing up levels. Really underrated player I never hear mentioned like due to his early death. Adamson killed himself in December of 2001. The man battled alcoholism and clearly had personal demons. Thankfully the Scotts haven’t forgotten him or the band.

Steeltown captured the decline of the middle class, specifically in Scotland, at the same time Bruce Springsteen spoke to it here in America. I’m not sure how this material couldn’t be more relatable in 1984. It’s fucking relatable now! Few prospects to obtain a better life economically. I haven’t even scratched its other themes of anti-war, domestic violence, national and personal frustrations with society. One of the best random finds in a while for yours truly. This is way I always search through new arrivals, new or used.

Photo by Eva Vlonk

Write It When I’m Here

My wife took a ski lift up the rocky mountains for a girls trip this weekend, leaving me alone with a certifiable kitten, a needy pup, and two apathetic cats. I find being alone more difficult now before I met my wife. Sure, I longed for companionship, but when one has prepared for eternal solitude (never sniffing marriage/partnership/companionship) well… You learn how to pass the time rather than skydiving off a bridge. You read Jonathan Franzen’s How to Be Alone at the park with a six pack. You take long walks across neighborhoods and listen to long-form podcasts. You write pointless blogs like this one.

The days, weeks, months, and years since December 19th 2019 have been the best years of my life, and while I hoped for a life like this I honestly did not believe it would happen for me. Having spent years thinking I would end up alone, and preparing as such, I should have the tools to lean back on during brief periods of isolation (one would think). I look around the house like Vincent Vega in the morning wondering “what now?”

Maybe it’s boredom, a state I abhor, and my wife seems immune from. I wouldn’t say I’m bored often but seems to find me… frequently. I get too caught up in questions of purpose and what external and internal voices call for me to do with my day. What are my reasons for doing things? I think I should workout but I don’t fucking feel like it, nor desire to. Full disclosure, I detest “working out” and physical activity in general. I do enjoy long walks, alone, with my headphones in. Summers in Texas however might cremate me without an urn.

So how do I pass the time when my wife departs for brief periods of time? I scroll through the half dozen streaming services I have looking for anything I might take a chance on trying. Weird how the ubiquity of entertainment makes it less desirable to be entertained. The 90’s and 2000’s were better days when we had a mono-culture and simply less of everything, scarcity.

Well, why don’t you do [FILL IN THE BLANK] and [FILL IN ANOTHER BLANK], or [YET ANOTHER THING YOU’RE SUPPOSED TO DO]. Why? Cuz fuck it, that’s why? I don’t wanna do any of things. But I don’t know what I want to do. I know I want to be with my wife. Or my friends who I all live in California.

Why don’t you make new friends? Cuz I don’t wanna. I like my friends. Also asking other strange men to get up to speed on your weird as quirks sounds scary and an unreasonable expectation. What you realize, in loneliness, your only friend is yourself. The only thing I can find to pass the time are my own crazed thoughts, thinking about things only I seem to care about. Even if I had my own friends here, they would not give two shits about why Gerald Ford was and continues to be a damn important American. Only in my own mind can I deeply consider the former president’s and discuss his vitality to today’s politics.

Yes, the man was as square as they come. A classic republican through and through. I am and remain a registered Democrat, despite the party being a complete embarrassment, weak, and completely in the wilderness politically and in the minds of most Americans. I vividly recall my position on the future of politics on November 7th 2016, the day before the election. Donald Trump was going to lose to Hillary Clinton badly. We had just had 8 years of Obama where had inherited a almost fully collapsed economy in 2008 and by 2016 had turned the whole country around in a positive direction. The Republicans appeared as rutterless as the 2025 Democrats. Republicans were supposed to be in the wilderness for the next decade.

But as we all know, that’s not what happened. The Trump years have taught us Americans don’t require civility nor chivalry in their public officials. Americas prefer strong and wrong over woke and anti-common sense most of the time. I feel comfortable saying this as liberal-registered-democrat living Texas, Americans don’t care about wisdom anymore. Both parties, both ideologies, don’t care about foresight. Neither party, neither ideology, wishes to find compromise in writing the laws of the land, forget about fucking unity. Forget about public service and doing the people’s work.

We miss Gerald Ford. We need voices like his. Gerald Ford was very obviously who he was. There were no secrets about who the man was. He was a Republican, and I am not. 10 years ago I thought the man a joke-pie wrapped in the squarest of boxes, but today, in the context of two separate Donald Trump presidencies, this country desperately needs a healer, someone honest and willing to take responsibility, but most importantly an individual who sees public service as a divine duty. Gerald Ford worked for his fellow Americans and was damn proud to serve.

Write It When I’m Gone dives deep into the life and mind of Gerald Ford and his thoughts about Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, the Bushes, the Clintons, Dick Cheney, and Congress. In his private conversations Ford reveals how deeply troubled he was with loss of civility beginning with Newt Gingrich in the House. In regard to Reagan, Ford told author Thomas DeFrank “he was not what I would call a technically competent president” and criticized Ronny’s lack of knowledge of the budget and foreign policy. This scrutiny came not from just Ford’s opinion but from other foreign leaders who shared their concerns about Reagan’s lack of detailed information and generally his detached and disengaged style of government. Ford called balls and strikes about ole Reagan, and everyone else.

While thinking highly of Bill Clinton, Ford honed in on Clinton’s weakness in foreign policy and “skirt at any of the social occasions.” Clinton’s failures to quickly intervene in the Yugoslavian Civil War, particularly in Bosnia, stood out to Ford. The consequences and legacy of the wars remain present in my mind. I have met many of those displaced from that war throughout my life, both in Denmark and in the United States. Clinton missed an opportunity to help quell tensions but also help move the region out of its soviet and communist past into a new future. I’m no expert on this matter but looking at the conflicts created by Putin’s Russia today perhaps if the United States had better intervened in the earlier their influence may have better shaped the region.

Now, back to the “skirt” and Clinton’s dogging. “I’m convinced that Clinton has a sexual addiction. He needs to get help – for his sake.” Not a statement I would expect a former president to ever state for the record, dead or alive. While Ford detested Clinton’s personal behavior, he abhorred the fact Bill would not admit he had lied and perjured himself. This was a deep dishonor and an erosion of the office which serves the public. Clinton personally asked Ford for help after his impeachedment. Just like his decision to pardon Nixon, Ford correctly requested Clinton admit his lie and admit perjury. True to his self-serving self Clinton replied “I won’t do that, I can’t do that.”

It’s quite easy to argue Ford lost to Carter simply due to the fact he pardoned Nixon. Now, I understand Americans being upset at the time with the decision. I was upset with Biden at his own hypocrisy pardoning the middling idiot Anthony Fauci and seemingly the entire Biden clan. However, if Nixon had been allowed to go on as a citizen without a pardon we now know Leon Jaworski, special prosecutor of the Watergate scandal, would have investigated Nixon, indicate, tried him, and ultimately convicted Nixon to jail. Years and years would have been spent on the new trial of Richard Nixon. Both Ford and the country would have been mostly focused on this issue while the country was suffering economically and the C0ld War still marched on. Ford rightfully pardoned Nixon not because he was friend, colleague, and fellow republican, but so that the country could move on, heal, and he could do the work of his fellow Americans.

This lesson and the many lessons from Ford ought to teach us how to move forward as a country and look back at our recent past mistakes. Do I personally like Trump? No. I have never nor would I ever vote for him. But putting him through multiple persecutions was a mistake. Not understanding the state of the country in 2015 through today is a failure of the media, journalists, historians, Democrats, and for most of all myself. I failed to see and feel current wave of the country. Looking back on history and living in Texas has helped me really understand the pulse of this country. Write It When I’m Gone though really took my understanding to a new level.