Tag: Tua

Looking Live at NFL Week 15, 2025

Yeah… so I didn’t keep my promise to myself to write these hook or by crook. Still, no sense in giving up writing. What excuses do I have? I dunno, I got tired. 4 weddings, 8 business trips, and 24 total flights in 2025. Didn’t track my mileage and I won’t do it. My career (thankfully) has finally taken off, the future is bright, and I’ve never travelled more in life. Point is I’ve never watched less football, and yet I have no FOMO. This season has been incredibly… Mediocre.

Ten weeks ago, 40 different QBs had already started an NFL game, the most since 2019. The record for most back-up QBs starting a game in a season was 66 in 2022. This season we are approaching 70 different starting QBs. There’s your moment med-zen.

Since I last wrote, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have losing records and will likely miss the playoffs, Bo Nix and Drake Maye brawling for the one seed, Maye and Matthew Stafford scrapping for MVP, and the Carolina Panthers in position to win the NFC South and host a playoff home game. I had Carolina over 6.5 wins but not winning the division. Tampa lost to a desultory Falcons with no direction put themselves in position to miss the playoffs entirely.

I’ll give myself a pat on the back though for my pre-season picks. At worst I’ll be 2-5, at best 4-5, and most likely 3-5. The Raiders, of course, had their annual colonoscopy out of contention months ago.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5), O/U 41.5

Ok, why am I picking this albatross, poo poo platter, Montezuma’s revenge of a game? If you made it this far, you’re reading a blog about point spreads from an amataur, you degenerate. GamblingProblem.com can’t help you. You’re in! There’s no going back. For us, the action IS the juice! This game cascades like the Epstein files. Spread opened at Jags -9.5 and jumped to two touchdowns. Every media outlet tripped over themselves to report it’s the biggest spread favoring the Jags since 2007.

So why this game? Well what game in 2007 and did the Jags cover? Took a minute but rode my time machine back to December 23, 2007, in Jacksonville when the Oakland Raiders visited Duval County. Whatever the spread was that day, the Jags covered! They smashed the Raiders 49 to 11 behind 3 Jamarcus Russell apple turnovers and 3 Jags rushing TDs. If you look back over the past 6 seasons the Jags have only been favored by 10 points or more once, and failed to cover.

The question is do you trust Trevor Lawrence to cover two touchdowns over third string undrafted rookie Brady Cook? Conversely, do you trust head coach Aaron Glenn and rookie Brady Cook to cover two touchdowns? Did Epstein really hang himself? Why are there so many pictures of and documents pertaining to President Trump in Jeffrey Epstein’s estate? Why are there so many flaws in the Warren Report? Where do the aliens really hide under our oceans? DO YOU BELIEVE?!?! I believe in the Jags -13.5, over 41.5 points. I think you can count on Trevor beating up on the hapless Jets, just like aliens being real.

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5), O/U 48.5

Don’t worry, I’m not writing another Joe Rogan monologue for this pick. You don’t need to say much for a Cowboys squad whose record (6-6-1) nearly matches their ATS (7-6). Cowboys are 2-4 ATS as favorites. The line opened at Cowboys -7.5 and haven’t been favored by more than 6 point thus far in 2025. 63% of the public money has gone to the Cowboys, according to the Action Network. Sure, CeeDee Lamb cleared concussion protocol and returned to practice as a full participant on Thursday. Not too confident Lamb will just go off like nothing happened. Minnesota’s defense and JJ McCarthy seem to be getting healthy and have not been eliminated from the playoffs, yet. Give me the Vikings to cover and over 48.5 points.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburg Steelers (-3), O/U 42.5

Another short take based on intuition and the fact I have vision is 20/20. Tua is averaging 21.25 pass attempts over their last 4 wins, completing on average 13.5 passes (63.53%). Do you trust Tua on a December night in Pittsburg? Against a team with weird luck who needs to keep stacking wins to win their division? Miami is due for a loss (their owner should be praying for one so they can fire McDaniel), and betting against Tua in the winter elements is money! I started looking to build the stats to support this claim, but was too busy running over state lines to place my bet. This one is my favorite of the week. Steelers cover, over 42.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 4, 2025

Mabel had anaphylaxis on Monday. Anaphylaxis is a severe life-threatening allergic reaction that can occur in dogs. Histamine and other chemicals are released from the body’s immune system in response to an allergen. Causes of anaphylaxis are insect bites and stings, food allergies, mediciations, and chemicals.

The day started routinely. I woke up with Mabel, equipped her harness and leash, and walked the blocked. She performed her lavatory business, as usual, and I started my work day in the office. At around 9 AM Mabel vomited her entire breakfast and staggered outside our bedroom. A lone piece of excrement in the corner of the hallway to the bedroom. My wife, Lili, an accomplished veterinarian, sprung into action. She checked Mabel’s gums and saw they were pale, almost white.

“It’s probably anaphylaxis.” Mabel began defecating. “I’m taking her to work.” I stayed behind to clean up before leaving to meet my pride and joy, and my wife. A doctor cautiously diagnosed Mabel with anaphylaxis based on her symptoms. Later the blood work all but confirmed it. Anaphylaxis is difficult to diagnose without observing the exact moment a dog interacts with causing agent, for example a wayward ant. The doctor hospitalized Mabel for 12 hours. We picked her up after midnight.

Mabel is fine, but clearly a little traumatized from the event. She didn’t understand what happened to her. Tuesday and Wednesday were spent resting and recovering. Since then she’s back to her old self, thankfully. So how do I transition this into NFL spreads? Poorly, but I will endeavor. The Raiders defecated twos in a row… See! Poorly! Let’s just get into it. The Preseason (weeks 1-4) is nearly over. After this slate we should understand these teams more clearly and better project the remaining three quarters of the season.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 41.5

I don’t care this game is being played in Dublin. Pittsburgh can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers cannot handle push rush pressure this season. Rodgers has been pressured on 30.2% (ranked 27th) of his 96 drop backs, according to Pro Football Focus, going 6/22 passing, 146 YDs, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Granted his line isn’t offering adequate protection but in his prime pressure didn’t bother Rodgers, and that’s the point. He’s not who he once was. This Pittsburgh team as it’s been for over a decade is just middling. I really don’t care who is playing quarterback for Minnesota. I trust Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. Vikings cover and over 41.5 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), O/U 46.5

After two weeks of investing in the 49ers I’m shorting them this week. The quarterback position seems incredibly volatile in San Francisco. Sure Brock Purdy has been cleared to start but back-up Mac Jones is questionable and was limited in practice this week. Both WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are also questionable. Admittedly both teams are a little messy. 49ers beat up on the Saints and failed to cover against the Cards. They were lucky to beat the Seahawks who are looking strong after 4 weeks at 3-1 (3-1 ATS). The 2-1 Jags are 2-1 ATS and are teetering on the “we’re a good bad team” to a good team fault line. Instinctually I’m taking the Jags to cover and under 46.5 points. Just too many points, and the 49ers capricious QB room makes me nervous. Also the 49ers special teams are ass.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5), O/U 44.5

I don’t give two fucks, I’m shorting the Dolphins again. Sure both teams are 0-3 but the Jets are 2-1 ATS while Miami is 1-2. The Jets could be 2-1. In no universe is Miami anything other than 0-3 and they’ll be 0-4 Monday night. I’m not surprised the Fins are favored. Look at the public treads, most of the tickets (57%) and money (53%) are on the Fins to cover (even more so on the moneyline). People just can’t quit a team that was hot for 11 weeks 2-3 years ago. I’m old enough to have seen trendy teams come and go, like the band Fun or the 15 minute celebrity of Sabrina Carpenter. We’ll forget her in a year or two. We’ll also hopefully forget Chris Grier, the longest tenured GM without a playoff win, who has achieved nothing since his hiring in 2016. Nerdboy Mike McDaniel will be back on the 49ers this season or next as some sort of consultant or coordinate. Miami will dump Tua and his salary like Mabel trying to expel the allergic reaction she had from her anus. The longest-tenured current NFL general manager without a playoff win.

Honorable Mention: Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5), O/U 43.5

I texted my dad and my good friend Andrew Murray my picks (I didn’t think I’d finish this blog). I only pick 3 spreads a week but this one really has my attention. The Falcons were just boat raced 0-30 by a terrible Panthers team. After a loss like that statistically teams bounce back and cover the spread over 70% of the time. But this is Atlanta… I don’t take them seriously organizationally on down from their “Super Bowl Winning” GM Terry Fontenot, as Michael Lombardi would say (I miss him podcasting). Washington on the other hand is a well built team and stellar organization. They won easily with Marcus Mariota. I expect more of the same this week. Condoms straight up! Over 43.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 2, 2025

The first week of NFL action is in the books! Last week I hit 2/3 of my favorite spreads and 2/3 on my over/under picks. Overall I was 8-8 against the spread (ats) and only hit 7/16 on the over/unders. I definitely care most about my ats record with a goal of 55% ats for the season. We certainly learned the Bills and Packers may have dominate regular season. Currently the Bills are favored in every regular season game so far. The Packer may be favored in all but 1 or 2 games for the rest of the regular season. We also learned it may be time to short the Dolphins and Giants for the rest of the year. Sure Giants LT Andrew Thomas being out certainly hurt the team, but he’s not helping the Giants offense enough to compete with the Commanders, Eagles, or Cowboys. Thomas is no stranger to injury and it’s unclear when he will return from said injury.

I had several notes and ideas of what we learned from week 1 and a few awards. Browns QB Joe Flacco certainly won the Joe Harris Award for “this guy can do some things” still in this league. Browns should have never let him walk in 2024. But I’m tired and it’s nearly midnight. Here are my top 3 favorite for week 2.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5), O/U 42 ½

“Short everything that man has touched” is what Mark Baum in The Big Short would say if the movie was about Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. “Nerd Boy” as ESPN’s Rex Ryan affectionately calls him leads the pack at -200 for first NFL head coach fired, per Covers. The Colts lead 30-0 before Miami scored half way through the 4th quarter in junk time. Sure, give new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo credit for building a competent scheme and strategy after years of Gus Bradley. If Nerd Boy is such an offensive guru why could he not adjust or even foresee such an onslaught from the Colts in all phases? QB Daniel Jones craved up Miami’s defense with relative ease. The Colts dominated the lines of scrimmage throughout the game. Perhaps I’m putting too much weight on McDaniel and not criticizing roster construction more; however, this team is a reflection of McDaniel’s offensive philosophy and ideas of how he wants to attack opponents.

Rex Ryan simply said the obvious, whether people want to hear it or not. The Miami Dolphins are soft, a story reported in joint practices several times, and McDaniel seems visibly ill-equipped and incompetent as far as leading football players. The guy can be an incredible coordinator but he’s not a legitimate head coach right now. New Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel clearly outclasses McDaniel overseeing a team in all three phases of the game. The Patriots defensive line is strong enough to pressure Tua. Vrabel just needs to watch the Colts tape for simple plan of attack. Patriots straight-up (SU) under 42.5 points. This game would likely not be on anyone’s multiview screen, but buy as many Miami Credit Default Swaps as possible.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), O/U 44 ½

As I predicted last week the Browns are gonna be big dogs often in the first 4 games of the season, and I’m buying! From 2019 Baltimore has only covered 12 or more points in 3 games against the Browns, one of which was in week 18 last year when the Browns were dying to end the season. Flacco looked solid back with the Browns and we’ll likely get the best out of Flacco in the first 4 weeks of the season. Oddly enough Flacco has never played the Raven as a Brown, and only played his former team as a Jet in 2022. He’s yet to have revenge against the Ravens. I’ll take the Ravens to win the game as they can’t attempt fate again like last year starting 0-2. Only thing that worries me is only 17% of the public betting money is on the Browns to cover. While 83% of the bets are on the Browns to cover but most of the money is on the Ravens. Smells like sharp money, but they’re wrong. The Ravens have rarely trucened the Brown over the past 5 season, and are barely over .500 ats versus the Browns. Give me the Browns getting 11.5 and under 44.5 points.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 46 ½

The last time the Chiefs went 0-2 was in 2014. The team went 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The Chiefs middled for a few seasons until they drafted QB Patrick Mahomes in 2017. This is only the third time in his career Mahomes has been a home dog with a 1-1 record. The “home” game he won was in Germany. The other was in Kansas City against Buffalo, and the Bills covered. If you’re picking Philly to cover or even taking the Philly moneyline (-108), you’re essentially betting the Chiefs will likely miss the playoffs. Only 35 teams have made the playoffs since 1990 after starting 0-2. Granted, the Ravens, Broncos, and Rams all made the playoffs last year after starting 0-2; however, 288 teams since 1990 have started 0-2 and only 35 (12.15%) of those teams made the playoffs.

I’m not buying the Chiefs going 0-2. Chiefs SU and over 46.5 points. Grab that +105 moneyline too. While I’m down on the Chiefs (I picked the Chargers straight up) I have too much respect for this team, especially Mahomes who may be the greatest underdog in all of sports. He’s 10-3 SU as an underdog regular and post-season. The Eagles already won a sketchy game against the Cowboys. Chiefs need this one more. Being home in Kansas City should help too. Per Sports Betting Dime 65% of the bets and 83% of the money is going to Philly. Hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes going 0-2 for the first time while still in his prime with at least an average to above average roster. Hell of a Monday morning on the talk shows if they go 0-2.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by César Hernández