Tag: spread

Looking Live at NFL Week 16, 2025

Ding-dong the witch is dead
Which old witch? The wicked witch
Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead

Finally, the Chiefs are done. The bread line… I mean the penalty line is closed until further notice. No more socialist handouts for Jawaan Taylor. No more Travis Kelce tantrums (although I’ve enjoyed two weeks of humiliation). No more glazing for Patrick Mahomes who can’t throw down field anymore, and essentially became a running quarterback. Of course it’s fun to bag on Kermit, he’s still great and I hope for a full recovery, but for the first time there’s adversity. Perhaps some doubt about how he and the organization bounces back. They are not one offseason away from another dynasty run.

Anyways, who cares about teams out of the playoffs. HA! Who am I kidding? Two of my favorite picks of the week involve non-playoff teams, like a real degenerate! Week 16 has a few loser leaves town showdowns and draft order implications. A Colts loss clinches playoff berths for most of the AFC teams ahead of them. The Giants, Titans, and my Raiders, all 2-12, need to keep losing to retain a top 3 draft choice, possibly the first overall pick. While not a QB heavy draft, these squads need all the help they can get from college prospects. They’ll all have new head coaches as well, including the Raiders who are working to put Sleepy Pete Carroll in the bingo club.

This offseason may be one of the most interesting in years. The Chiefs must rebuild their roster from the inside out. While many excuse their offensive line play with injuries, their performance does not meet the standard of a Super Bowl caliber team. Neither does their defensive line. “Chris Jones has lost a step” is a cruddy excuse. Jones is older sure, but he’s still playing at blue chip level. The rest of the defense needs to step up. Also, the zebras won’t be helping Jawaan and his remaining $27M salary.

Joe Burrow appears interested in greener pastures, or maybe Andrew Luck part deux (hopefully not). The Bengals, briefly, shook their “Bumgels” tag for a couple of seasons, but Mike Brown is still the owner. As a fan of Al Davis’ Raiders and a resident of the greater Dallas area I can tell Cincy fans you’ll never win anything while Mr. Brown owns the franchise.

Regardless of what happens in Baltimore, it’s time to move on from John Harbaugh. I suspect we may be in for a Bloody Monday which will also include the Cardinals, Falcons, Raiders, Browns, and should include the Dolphins and Bengals. I have serious doubts Mike Brown will fire Zac Taylor. The DJ may live to spin a few more records in Miami. Anyways, here’s Wonderwall.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Tennessee Titans O/U 37.5

This one opened at 11.5 before the Mahomes injury. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The 2-12 Titans have more motivation to keep losing to at least reach a top 3 draft choice, despite playing hard each week. QB Cam Ward has started every game this season and playing his ass off. Tennessee’s defense while ranked low by most outlets faces Gardner Minshew, a depleted offensive line, weak running backs, and receivers who wouldn’t start most teams. The defense plays hard and ranks poorly due to their offense. What kind of fight does this Chiefs team have? Not much if you ask me. Say what you will about him, Mahomes kept the offense relevant entirely on his own. Talking heads and blog boys have questioned Mahomes’ leadership, perhaps there’s some smoke, but we’ll find out Sunday how much mediocrity he covered up. I think we’re going to find a black mold infestation. Give me Titans +3 and over 37.5. Man if you took this at 11, walk up to the booth now.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins O/U 47.5

This pick comes from instinct rather than sabermetrics. Sometimes having kinetic intuition serves one better than analytics. For example last week I correctly surmised to bet against Tua in Pittsburgh on a December night. Now Tua is benched, Mike McDaniel still coaching for his job, and rookie Quinn Ewers gets his first start. Ewers is up for this. He starts at home, gets all the first team reps, and faces a Bengals defense dead last in total defense according to most outlets. His scouting report coming out of Texas was mixed. He gets credit for helping Sarkisian turn around the program, going 27-9, 11-1 on the road. In Texas’ first season in the SEC, Ewer’s last college season, he played 14 games, going 11-3, passed for 3,472 yds, 31 TDs, 12 INTs, 65.8% completion rate. Ewers set records with 1st in single-season 300+ yard passing games (6) for Texas, per CFBStats and NCAA data.

So what about the negatives? He’s criticized for being injured regularly and not having a strong enough arm. Well in the past 12 months Ewers has played little meanful football as a benchwarmer for Miami, and arm strength may be one of the most overrated desired traits. There’s consensus Ewers is a developmental QB, and we know arm strength can be developed. Where does Ewer excel? Short and intermediate routes, which require accuracy and precision. He’s had most of a season learning an offense which leans into quick short-intermediate passes to playmakers. The fins are clearly making changes for the future, and the Bengals? Only thing that’s changed is Joe Burrow’s attitude.

“He’s a headcase” as my dad would say. Burrow is justified to be in his feelings. He’s closer to becoming Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer than he is Luka Doncic. He may be checked out; meanwhile, the Bumgals concern themselves with denying per diem, garage sales, limiting Gatorade to the players, saving on podiums, and google the rest of the stories. Mike Brown is a cheap bastard, and the league will be better off when he no longer owns the team. Until then, they’re the Bumgals. Give me Miami +3.5 and over 47.5. Wrote way too much for this poo poo platter game!

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) O/U 48.5

How the hell are the Ravens favored? This is a damn rat line. Something’s wrong with Lamar Jackson. I don’t care that he won last week. The guy was 8-12 passing and still managed to throw a pick to the scoreless Bumgals who are done and checked out. Now he faces a tough Pats team, coming off a loss, who needs to keep winning. Yeah I don’t think so. This one will be short and sweet. Patriots straight up and over 48.5. Now, I will acknowledge the public is all over New England on this one (85%). I don’t give a shit. Pats are 6-0 on the road. I do not believe in this Ravens team. This feels like the game that gets John Harbaugh fired. The Ravens feel overdue for big organization changes.

Looking Live at NFL Week 5, 2025

I won’t be watching football this weekend, nor have I watched any this week. I’m celebrating my anniversary. Two glorious years! I jokingly told my wife over crab mac and cheese “here’s to two more years” which she took to mean our marriage would only last two more years… I recovered quickly by claiming I was starting a tradition. Every anniversary I will proclaim “here’s to [insert anniversary year milestone] more years” to expand upon the many positive years to look forward to. She wondered what I will say on our 50th anniversary. Obviously another 50 years! What else? We’re not dying right?

So far I’m failing, hard, at my picks. Rather than blame myself I’ll borrow from Tom Brady’s assessment of the NFL’s current QB’s and the CBA. Today’s college prospects are less prepared for the NFL than ever. While the transfer portal and NIL has provide the “student athletes” freedom to own their own destiny (and rightfully so), college players seem more focused on collecting every endorsement dollar possible rather than develop their skills for the professional level. Obviously most athletes peak at the collegiate level and thus we ought to encourage them to make good on their brief financial opportunities. Still most of them don’t realize they’re not cut out for the NFL and still persist towards the league.

Gone, likely, are the days of a Tom Brady sticking it out at one university and fighting up the bottom of the depth chart to starter. QB’s especially need a certain number of college starts, wins, and pass attempts before having preparedness for the NFL. The Bill Parcell Rules are a great starting point: be a three-year starter, senior and graduate from college, start 30 games and win at least 23, 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and complete at least 60% of pass attempts. While these rules aren’t fool-proof (look at Tom Brady) it’s a great starting point. I can overlook college wins if the prospect played with weaker talent but still performed well. Starting 30 or more games over 3 years plus 2:1 TDs-to-INTs on a high volume of pass attempts means more to me.

Cam Ward had 2330 passes in college. Anthony Richardson only had 393 attempts. Ward is on a horrible team with a worse coaching staff, yet watching him on Sundays you can see he’s not the problem. Put him on the Colts at the start of the off-season and he plays as good as Danny Dimes. Richardson would be lucky to make any team’s practice squad.

Add these ill-prepared and limited number of fine college prospects to the current NFL CBA. The number of padded practices during the season and training camp are limited, as well as full-contact practice which also mandates recovery days. Two-a-day practices are extinct. The CBA also limits the length and intensity of off-season workouts and in-season practices to promote player safety. I’m not here to do away with these rules; however, these limitations have constrained player development to a point where it affects the quality of the game and overall the product. The player safety paradigm has swung too far towards safety. The game is inherently unsafe and we ought to accept the obvious truth.

We need relinquish some of these limits, otherwise we’ll continue to look at weeks 1 through 4 has the preseason. The three preseason games we have now do not server to prepare starters for the regular season. Over the past 25 years the preseason as mattered less and less as clubs sought to avoid injuries to star and key players. While preseason games told us little about the teams until week 1 it still served developing rookies or developmental players on the fringe. Doesn’t seem to serve any purpose anymore other than to provide on-air content. These inefficiencies in the NFL product will get better. The game has only gotten better in its history and overcome conflicts like domestic violence and chronic head injuries. It will be a few years before the collegiate level figures out how to control and manage the portal and NIL. The current NFL CBA. expires after the 2030 season. Things will change, but not for at least another 5 seasons.

Anyways, I’m not going to pick every game as I usually do. I’ll give my 3 picks, which will be purely based on gut feeling rather than some research and analysis with my gut. Knowing my luck week 5 will be steller with great performances from contending teams while I drive home from the Gulf Coast. I’m giving 4 picks this week. Just had to. You’ll see why.

Giants +3.5

Eagles -3.5

Panthers +1.5*

Buccaneers +4.5

*Fuck it I’m shorting the Dolphins again!!!

Looking Live at NFL Week 4, 2025

Mabel had anaphylaxis on Monday. Anaphylaxis is a severe life-threatening allergic reaction that can occur in dogs. Histamine and other chemicals are released from the body’s immune system in response to an allergen. Causes of anaphylaxis are insect bites and stings, food allergies, mediciations, and chemicals.

The day started routinely. I woke up with Mabel, equipped her harness and leash, and walked the blocked. She performed her lavatory business, as usual, and I started my work day in the office. At around 9 AM Mabel vomited her entire breakfast and staggered outside our bedroom. A lone piece of excrement in the corner of the hallway to the bedroom. My wife, Lili, an accomplished veterinarian, sprung into action. She checked Mabel’s gums and saw they were pale, almost white.

“It’s probably anaphylaxis.” Mabel began defecating. “I’m taking her to work.” I stayed behind to clean up before leaving to meet my pride and joy, and my wife. A doctor cautiously diagnosed Mabel with anaphylaxis based on her symptoms. Later the blood work all but confirmed it. Anaphylaxis is difficult to diagnose without observing the exact moment a dog interacts with causing agent, for example a wayward ant. The doctor hospitalized Mabel for 12 hours. We picked her up after midnight.

Mabel is fine, but clearly a little traumatized from the event. She didn’t understand what happened to her. Tuesday and Wednesday were spent resting and recovering. Since then she’s back to her old self, thankfully. So how do I transition this into NFL spreads? Poorly, but I will endeavor. The Raiders defecated twos in a row… See! Poorly! Let’s just get into it. The Preseason (weeks 1-4) is nearly over. After this slate we should understand these teams more clearly and better project the remaining three quarters of the season.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 41.5

I don’t care this game is being played in Dublin. Pittsburgh can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers cannot handle push rush pressure this season. Rodgers has been pressured on 30.2% (ranked 27th) of his 96 drop backs, according to Pro Football Focus, going 6/22 passing, 146 YDs, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Granted his line isn’t offering adequate protection but in his prime pressure didn’t bother Rodgers, and that’s the point. He’s not who he once was. This Pittsburgh team as it’s been for over a decade is just middling. I really don’t care who is playing quarterback for Minnesota. I trust Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. Vikings cover and over 41.5 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), O/U 46.5

After two weeks of investing in the 49ers I’m shorting them this week. The quarterback position seems incredibly volatile in San Francisco. Sure Brock Purdy has been cleared to start but back-up Mac Jones is questionable and was limited in practice this week. Both WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are also questionable. Admittedly both teams are a little messy. 49ers beat up on the Saints and failed to cover against the Cards. They were lucky to beat the Seahawks who are looking strong after 4 weeks at 3-1 (3-1 ATS). The 2-1 Jags are 2-1 ATS and are teetering on the “we’re a good bad team” to a good team fault line. Instinctually I’m taking the Jags to cover and under 46.5 points. Just too many points, and the 49ers capricious QB room makes me nervous. Also the 49ers special teams are ass.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5), O/U 44.5

I don’t give two fucks, I’m shorting the Dolphins again. Sure both teams are 0-3 but the Jets are 2-1 ATS while Miami is 1-2. The Jets could be 2-1. In no universe is Miami anything other than 0-3 and they’ll be 0-4 Monday night. I’m not surprised the Fins are favored. Look at the public treads, most of the tickets (57%) and money (53%) are on the Fins to cover (even more so on the moneyline). People just can’t quit a team that was hot for 11 weeks 2-3 years ago. I’m old enough to have seen trendy teams come and go, like the band Fun or the 15 minute celebrity of Sabrina Carpenter. We’ll forget her in a year or two. We’ll also hopefully forget Chris Grier, the longest tenured GM without a playoff win, who has achieved nothing since his hiring in 2016. Nerdboy Mike McDaniel will be back on the 49ers this season or next as some sort of consultant or coordinate. Miami will dump Tua and his salary like Mabel trying to expel the allergic reaction she had from her anus. The longest-tenured current NFL general manager without a playoff win.

Honorable Mention: Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5), O/U 43.5

I texted my dad and my good friend Andrew Murray my picks (I didn’t think I’d finish this blog). I only pick 3 spreads a week but this one really has my attention. The Falcons were just boat raced 0-30 by a terrible Panthers team. After a loss like that statistically teams bounce back and cover the spread over 70% of the time. But this is Atlanta… I don’t take them seriously organizationally on down from their “Super Bowl Winning” GM Terry Fontenot, as Michael Lombardi would say (I miss him podcasting). Washington on the other hand is a well built team and stellar organization. They won easily with Marcus Mariota. I expect more of the same this week. Condoms straight up! Over 43.5 points.