Sports – Page 3 – Disaesthetic

Looking Live at NFL Week 3, 2025

Woof! Rough 7 days for your buy. Since my last very scrambled, by the seat of my pants, post I have been under the weather, traveled our east for wedding, and came back home to immediately get back to work. My career has reached new peaks of responsibility and pushed my bandwidth professionally and personally wider. I’m learning to manage it all. Feels like things always slip. I want to just hammer this post to keep it going and look forward to better days. There’s only one more wedding, a few work trips, and then finally the holidays for me to slow down and have more time to watch and think about football. Shoot, I almost paid for subscription for VSIN’s platform to better monitor the public betting market so I can watch how the squares and sharps bet. I do truly want to improve my betting knowledge and acumen. To do that though involves more money and time. Browns defense clench the explosive Baltimore offense for as long as possible.

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 41 ½

Cleveland let me down last week, but I’m still buying the Browns to cover this week (and most likely next week). With 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter the Browns only trailed 10 points after scoring a touchdown. Unfortunately the Browns continue to turn the ball over in pu pu platter of turnovers. Pencil QB Joe Flacco in for at least one interception, should be -1.5 INTs every game, and maybe a fumble too. Still, I’m buying Browns covers if you’re selling. Packers have looked dominate through two weeks against a middling Commanders defense and a Lions defense ranked around 10 or 11th in total defense (but haven’t looked it). They now face a Browns defense ranked first in total defense. First in rushing defense and third in passing defense. Take the Packers moneyline but give me Browns covering 7.5 and under 41.5 points. Monitoring public betting via Sports Betting Dime at the start of the week most of the bets and money were for the Browns covering when the line opened at 5.5 points. 59% of the tickets are still on the Browns but the money is split 50/50 24 hours before the game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5), O/U 44 ½

This is the first sharp lead bet for me in 2025. 64% of the tickets are on the Eagles to cover but 67% of the money is on the Rams. I like the Rams straight up and under 44.5 points. The Eagles are also due for a loss. The won and covered a wacky season opener to the Cowboys which DT Jalen Carter kicked out before the first snap of the game and a long rain delay. Cowboys looked pretty good in that game, who knows what happens if there is no rain delay. I was certain last week the Chiefs would win straight up to avoid going 0-2. The Eagles took care of business in an unsexy but business like manner. I have a newfound respect for QB Jalen Hurts when he says “we won the fucking game” to DT Chris Jones. So many quarterbacks like Bears QB Caleb Williams are more interested in playing hero ball or doing something interesting instead of just playing to win the game. QB Matthew Stafford plays to win too. The Texans defense presented a great defensive challenge, but the Rams won and covered. They played a very frisky Titans team who gave them all they could handle until the Rams pulled away late in the third quarter. The Rams are ready for this challenge too.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5), O/U 45 ½

I kick myself last week for not making the 49ers one of my top 3 picks. Perhaps the news of QB Mac Jones getting the start late in the week prevented me from doing so. I told my football text group I loved Jones getting the start and he rewarded my faith going 26/39, 279 YDs, and 3 TDs on the road! I expect more of the same at home versus a Cardinals team who is 2-0 against the Saints and Panthers. I was traveling last weekend as I wrote in the intro, so I have no idea what was said on the pregame shows, but let’s not forget Jones was the player Head Coach Kyle Shanahan wanted. I expect Jones to maintain the ship while Purdy recovers from turf toe. I’ll continue monitoring the Niners for their success until further notice. The Cards however are a bottom half offense and defense who have beat up on two lottery teams. We’ll learn a lot about both teams, but this is about betting before the outcome occurs. I’m buying the 49ers under Mac Jones until further notice, and I have never bought a Kyler Murray lead squad in the NFL, to Kevin Clark’s SHOCK!!! 49ers covers and over 45.5 point.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Adrian Curiel

Looking Live at NFL Week 2, 2025

The first week of NFL action is in the books! Last week I hit 2/3 of my favorite spreads and 2/3 on my over/under picks. Overall I was 8-8 against the spread (ats) and only hit 7/16 on the over/unders. I definitely care most about my ats record with a goal of 55% ats for the season. We certainly learned the Bills and Packers may have dominate regular season. Currently the Bills are favored in every regular season game so far. The Packer may be favored in all but 1 or 2 games for the rest of the regular season. We also learned it may be time to short the Dolphins and Giants for the rest of the year. Sure Giants LT Andrew Thomas being out certainly hurt the team, but he’s not helping the Giants offense enough to compete with the Commanders, Eagles, or Cowboys. Thomas is no stranger to injury and it’s unclear when he will return from said injury.

I had several notes and ideas of what we learned from week 1 and a few awards. Browns QB Joe Flacco certainly won the Joe Harris Award for “this guy can do some things” still in this league. Browns should have never let him walk in 2024. But I’m tired and it’s nearly midnight. Here are my top 3 favorite for week 2.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5), O/U 42 ½

“Short everything that man has touched” is what Mark Baum in The Big Short would say if the movie was about Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. “Nerd Boy” as ESPN’s Rex Ryan affectionately calls him leads the pack at -200 for first NFL head coach fired, per Covers. The Colts lead 30-0 before Miami scored half way through the 4th quarter in junk time. Sure, give new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo credit for building a competent scheme and strategy after years of Gus Bradley. If Nerd Boy is such an offensive guru why could he not adjust or even foresee such an onslaught from the Colts in all phases? QB Daniel Jones craved up Miami’s defense with relative ease. The Colts dominated the lines of scrimmage throughout the game. Perhaps I’m putting too much weight on McDaniel and not criticizing roster construction more; however, this team is a reflection of McDaniel’s offensive philosophy and ideas of how he wants to attack opponents.

Rex Ryan simply said the obvious, whether people want to hear it or not. The Miami Dolphins are soft, a story reported in joint practices several times, and McDaniel seems visibly ill-equipped and incompetent as far as leading football players. The guy can be an incredible coordinator but he’s not a legitimate head coach right now. New Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel clearly outclasses McDaniel overseeing a team in all three phases of the game. The Patriots defensive line is strong enough to pressure Tua. Vrabel just needs to watch the Colts tape for simple plan of attack. Patriots straight-up (SU) under 42.5 points. This game would likely not be on anyone’s multiview screen, but buy as many Miami Credit Default Swaps as possible.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), O/U 44 ½

As I predicted last week the Browns are gonna be big dogs often in the first 4 games of the season, and I’m buying! From 2019 Baltimore has only covered 12 or more points in 3 games against the Browns, one of which was in week 18 last year when the Browns were dying to end the season. Flacco looked solid back with the Browns and we’ll likely get the best out of Flacco in the first 4 weeks of the season. Oddly enough Flacco has never played the Raven as a Brown, and only played his former team as a Jet in 2022. He’s yet to have revenge against the Ravens. I’ll take the Ravens to win the game as they can’t attempt fate again like last year starting 0-2. Only thing that worries me is only 17% of the public betting money is on the Browns to cover. While 83% of the bets are on the Browns to cover but most of the money is on the Ravens. Smells like sharp money, but they’re wrong. The Ravens have rarely trucened the Brown over the past 5 season, and are barely over .500 ats versus the Browns. Give me the Browns getting 11.5 and under 44.5 points.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 46 ½

The last time the Chiefs went 0-2 was in 2014. The team went 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The Chiefs middled for a few seasons until they drafted QB Patrick Mahomes in 2017. This is only the third time in his career Mahomes has been a home dog with a 1-1 record. The “home” game he won was in Germany. The other was in Kansas City against Buffalo, and the Bills covered. If you’re picking Philly to cover or even taking the Philly moneyline (-108), you’re essentially betting the Chiefs will likely miss the playoffs. Only 35 teams have made the playoffs since 1990 after starting 0-2. Granted, the Ravens, Broncos, and Rams all made the playoffs last year after starting 0-2; however, 288 teams since 1990 have started 0-2 and only 35 (12.15%) of those teams made the playoffs.

I’m not buying the Chiefs going 0-2. Chiefs SU and over 46.5 points. Grab that +105 moneyline too. While I’m down on the Chiefs (I picked the Chargers straight up) I have too much respect for this team, especially Mahomes who may be the greatest underdog in all of sports. He’s 10-3 SU as an underdog regular and post-season. The Eagles already won a sketchy game against the Cowboys. Chiefs need this one more. Being home in Kansas City should help too. Per Sports Betting Dime 65% of the bets and 83% of the money is going to Philly. Hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes going 0-2 for the first time while still in his prime with at least an average to above average roster. Hell of a Monday morning on the talk shows if they go 0-2.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by César Hernández

Looking Live at NFL Week 1, 2025

The start of the football season varies for most people. For my dad, probably Labor Day. For me, Guess The Lines for week 1 on the Bill Simmons podcast. I have been miseribly awaiting for the NFL to return. Don’t talk to me about pre-season. Nobody likes army rations. We all suffered a sports draught this past July and August with no NBA and no Olympics. Love ya MLB but you can’t fill my fix. Neither could ESPN, FS1, and all the other media outlets. Even today, Labor Day, feels like the first day we’re getting serious football coverage, CFB or NFL.

I’m dying to be inundated with football talk, can’t get enough, and I’m just not getting it. Sure, Guess The Lines dropped last night but I want more. Where is it? Hopefully as ramp up to Thursday’s season opener kicks in we’ll have more non-stop NFL programming. We need to hear more about player injuries (some key ones coming up!) and betting trends. There are 9 divisional games in week 1, the most in week 1 since 2020, so you’d think we’d hear more about divisional trends. Well the Action Network has the goods. Week 1 divisional home dogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010. Point? Over the past 15 years home divisional dogs cover greater than 76% of the time in week 1. In the past 7 years that rate is over 83%!

Let’s look big picture now. Underdogs, in week 1, of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since 2006. Dogs are under .500 ATS in just 1 of those 19 seasons. We’ve got 4 matchups in week 1 of 6.5 or higher. Best believe folks will betting on those dogs to cover. Since 2016, underdogs are 132-90-6 ATS in week 1 covering 60% of the spread. Dogs are at least .500 ATS or better every single year the last 9 years. Basically, if in doubt bet the dogs, which is music to my ears. I picked 8 dogs in week 1, speaking of which I decided to track my picks each week (for better or worse) for the public to see.

I may not be podcasting anymore or have the same time to research as I did in the past, but dammit I need this action. Every week I still want to go through this like a routine. Who cares if I suck at it. I HAD TO GET ON MAN!!! Ok, enough posturing. Here are my three favorites of week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons, O/U 46 ½

Soooooooo… I know a few paragraphs ago I wrote divisional home dogs in the past 7 years cover 83% of the time in week 1… But I’m taking my Bucs to cover on in Atlanta. While many have the Falcons offensive line ranked in the top 10 this offseason, I do not, they lost starting RT Kaleb McGary for the season. McGary was arguably their most valuable player lead blocking for RB Bijan Robinson and protecting the blindside of the left-handed franchise QB Michael Penix Jr. This is Penix’s first season at the helm from jump street. Losing a blue chipper like McGary will haunt this team for the entire 2025 campaign.

The Falcons have addressed this problem by shifting Elijah Wilkinson and trading for Michael Jerrell. These are band-aids players not replacements for McGary. Wilkinson had penalty problems in the past, which bodes well for Super Bowl level Bucs defense. And yes, the Bucs have injury problems too with LT Tristan Wirfs out a few weeks, but the Bucs have known this for several weeks now while the Falcons lost McGary 6 days ago. Overall, I have liked this Bucs team since they acquired QB Baker Mayfield. This year feels like it could be special run with this group. GM, Head Coach, and QB advantage for the Bucs over the Falcons all day everyday for me. While I’m excited to watch Penix run this thing from training camp onward he hasn’t faced this defense before. Also, until proven otherwise, Atlanta’s defense is a joke. Bucs cover and give me over as well.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 47 ½

Cleveland can never justify letting Joe Flacco walk prior to the 2024 campaign. I remind you Flacco signed with the Colts as a backup instead. Watson had a lengthy injury history to begin with. Why not pay for a proven insurance plan? While the Bengals played their starters in the pre-season I’m not buying they’ll magically start faster in the first month of the season. Especially against a rival whose defense will punish them win, lose, or draw. I repeat again, divisional home dogs in week 1 cover over 83% of the time. While the line is under 6.5 I still buy into the data of big dogs covering most of the time in week 1. This may be my favorite spread of the week and I’ll be honing in on the Browns these first 4 weeks as they face 4 Super Bowl contenders in the early Sunday window. I’m assuming they’ll be big to big-ish dogs in each game. I like them a lot right now. Admittedly it’s a gut feeling more than data driven decision. Browns cover. Under 47.5 which is just too damn high.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-6.5), O/U 45 ½

I’ll be honest, half the reason for picking this spread is so I can refer to the Commanders as The Condoms, and for week 1 get a pregnancy test. Abdul Carter and Sexy Dexy are going to get more penetration than Michael B. Jordan at a sorority party. The Condoms won’t cover this time. Last season was magical and a complete organizational and brand rebound for the Condoms, yet they faced very few top tier QBs. Sure they beat Joe Burrow but the Bengals overall were a disappointment. This season they play multiple playoff QBs and face the AFC West. Dogs in week 1 of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since over the past 19 years. Giants win total is set at 5.5 but I expect this team to be frisky dog with the defense alone. Down the road with QB Jaxson Dart at the helm perhaps the team could be a hot team to fade or perhaps bandwagon with. Either way I expect the Giants to see big spreads and salivate my dog chops. Give me the Giants to cover and under 45.5.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Mick Haupt