San Francisco – Disaesthetic

Looking Live at Wild Card Weekend, 2026

The league took me to the cleaners last week. I still stand by my Panthers pick, the rain didn’t help. I should have known better with the 49ers, no excuse, but I just didn’t trust Sam Darnold. I still don’t. The witchcraft Steelers continue practicing santeria somehow upset Baltimore. I knew I was in trouble when DeAndre Hopkins misread the situation with 39 seconds left in the game. Baltimore should’ve gone up 31-26. Forgot D-Hop was still in the league!

This weekend I need a repeat of my performances in weeks 15 and 16, going 5/6 on my picks. Like Walter Abrams I have something to sell. Stats are not enough. Bettors are ready to risk what they can’t afford, for what they can’t have! In an uncertain world, where Iran is on the cusp of regime change, Venezuela will change regimes, I’m selling the world’s rarest commodity: certainty. Let’s make some money.

Shakey’s Game: Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 45.5

This spread opened at 10 and only moved up half a point. Historically 10 or more point dogs in the playoffs are a mixed bag. 3 years ago Tua and Miami covered as 13.5 point dogs during winter in Buffalo. Just last year the Steelers were 10 point dogs in Baltimore and lost by 14. Most famously in 2011 the 7-9 Seahawks beat the defending champion Saints as 10 point dogs at home (best case for the Panthers). My immediate instinct was sprint to the booth for a Panthers +10 ticket. The argument against, of course, go against the public and Matt Stafford won’t throw 3 picks again, even though he did it the following week. Most of the money and tickets are on Carolina to cover. All fair, but this is the Shakey’s game. For 3 quarters the Rams will dominate and control the game, and in the 4th quarter Carolina weasels to a backdoor cover. Carolina +10.5, over 45.5.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears, O/U 44.5

Matt LaFleur is about to enjoy beating Ben Johnson twice a year. The Bears have beaten three teams with a winning record. Their defense is atrocious. Johnson talks a lot of shit and enjoys being the aggressor. But like most bullies he’s a bug eyed weirdo with a lot of hype but no real accomplishments. Many readers (and listeners) know I enjoyed criticizing LaFleur in the past, but he’s had the job for 7 years now, 3-5 in the playoffs, and has reached the NFC championship. This is more of a pick driven by my contempt for Johnson, and LaFleur’s experience. Look for Green Bay to shutdown the run game, force Caleb Williams to be the hero (he’ll fail), and rested Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, and offensive line throwing all over the Bears. Most of the betting public is on Chicago. I fucking love the pain the books are about to inflict on people’s wallets. This is easy, lock of the weekend, Packers -1.5, over 44.5.

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 51.5

How are the Bills with its abysmal rushing defense, worst of the remaining playoff teams, favored against the red hot Jaguars, at home, who have the best ranked rushing defense? This line is solely based on Josh Allen alone. RAT LINE ALERT! Let’s start with some easy stuff. Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game. The franchise has lost eight straight road playoff games and hasn’t won a road playoff game since the 1992. Jaguars are 7-2 ats at home. 12-5 ats overall with a 13-4 record. While the Bills are 12-5, they’re 8-9 ats. Jacksonville’s game plan will likely take out Buffalo’s rushing attack and force their receivers to make a play. I remind you Brandin Cooks might be their best receiver. I favor defenses in these types best offense vs best defense scenarios. I also believe in Trevor Lawrence. He has “the look” of a guy ready to solidify his status as one of the tier 2 QBs in the league, below Mahomes who is in a tier of his own. Jaguars straight-up, over 51.5.

Shakey’s 2.0: San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), O/U 44.5

If you wanted a two for one special at Shakey’s, you can get in Philadelphia. The Mojo combo featuring the 49ers and Eagles offers something for everyone! Injury plagued Niners. Ice pick in eyes Eagles offense. 49er fans have already accused the NFL of mailing in the fix with assigned head zebra Allen Eck. In games lead by Eck, the Eagles are 8-1, including their victory over the 49ers in the 2023 NFC Championship. Brock Purdy was knocked out of that game with an elbow injury in the first half. The 49ers are 3-6 in games reffed by Eck. The line opened at Eagles -3.5, but now at -5.5 I like the 49ers. Feels too high for a Philly offense which has the entertainment value of paint drying. I realize the line moved up due to the 49ers’ mounting injuries, especially on defense, but Trent Williams seems to be trending towards playing. If he plays, which I’m betting he will, 49ers will make this game competitive. Weather conditions may slog-up the game. 49ers +5.5, BIG under 44.5.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-3.5), O/U 45.5

This game I had the hardest time deciding my position. New England will win the game, but it’s their first playoff game with this young core. Weather in Foxborough is gonna suck. I copped out and texted Andrew Murray, Chargers Fan (ha!), his bottomline take. Their line has been a problem all year, but especially since Joe Alt went down. Andrew also hates the Chargers OC Greg Roman. Charger fans complaints center around Roman’s repudiation of solidifying long-term adjustments. The man always returns to his base scheme the following week after correcting an in game issue the previous week. Seems like Charger fans hope to find a new OC in the near future. They might be first in line! Offensively the Pats may be slow out the gate but they’ll likely overwhelm LA in time of position. Chargers may struggle to anything going offensively and be forced into a one-dimensional passing offense. Patriots -3.5, under 45.5.

Houston Texans (-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 38.5

The Voodoo Steelers were a nice story, but the neighborhood Hoodoo has run out of dolls, pins, and mojo bags. The Texans have the best defense in the NFL. They don’t play like a pack of wolves, they’re the white blood cells in your body. If the Steelers manage to get past or even block (for a play) Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Sheldon Rankins, and Denico Autry (good luck with that) the Texans’ linebackers will locate and erase the ball carrier. The secondary routinely blankets receivers. Sure, DK Metcalf returns after suspension and… It won’t make the difference. Kenneth Gainwell’s quickness might be the tougher assignment for the Texans. Offensively the Texans make timely explosive plays. CJ Stroud and OC Nick Caley found their footing in recent weeks despite inconsistent offensive line and running back play. This will be an ugly, boa constrictor, game in Caribbean Pittsburgh. Texans -3, under 38.5.

Looking Live at NFL Week 18, 2025

Life… is a game of inches. So is football. These wise words come from Coach Tony D’Amato in 1999’s Any Given Sunday. Tony understood the duality of life and football existed only in inches. The margin for error so small anymore than a fingernail could mean life or death. That, dear reader, is football.

You may have surmised by now I watched Any Given Sunday today, and you’re damn right. The movie prophesied the state of the NFL two plus decades into the future. Hotshot wunderkind offensive coordinators like Nick Crozier vying for the head coaching crown. Managing and disguising concussions so your starters keep playing. The emergence of the Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes prototype quarterbacks in late 2010’s. Sure we had Aaron Brooks and Michael Vick in the early 2000’s, but they were nowhere near what Mahomes, Jackson, or even Jalen Hurts have achieved. Willie Beamen would have kept the Chiefs playoff hopes alive, if he weren’t fictional.

Any Given Sunday cemented several character tropes seen daily on the national talking head shows and in the league today. Dr. Harvey Mandrake needs his own Ballers type mini-series on HBO. Ole Harvey, played by James Woods, loves the action and loves the players, in his own fucked up way. Kind of like Dee Dee Blanchard. “These men are gladiators, warriors!” And according to Harvey, football players made that choice a long time ago. While true, players then and now, understand the physical cost of football they still deserve to know what’s happening to their bodies. Harvey forgot that part.

Jack Rose and his midday cable show dished straight hot takes 4 years before Cold Pizza and a dozen years before Stephen A. Smith permanently sat across Skip Bayless on First Take. John C. McGinley, who portrays Jack, based his performance on Jim Rome, although he reminds me much more of Colin Cowherd and his cowturd take on being a sports media personality.

Most walk away from Any Given Sunday with Al Pacino’s speech as Tony D’Amato. It’s by far what should be remembered at the very least. Life is a game of inches, and so is football. The inches are everywhere around us, and when you add up all those inches that’s gonna make the fucking difference between winning and losing! That’s all I have to say to the following six teams playing this weekend to get in the tournament. Winner takes all. Loser leaves town. Living and dying! Football, dear reader. Now, are you gonna pick the dog? Or Tease the favorites?

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) O/U 43.5

Bryce Young might play a home game in the playoffs. How did we get here? Two years ago he was deemed a bust. Saturday he may help the Panthers win the NFC South for the first time in a decade! The Bucs should have wrapped this division up months ago. Baker Mayfield lead the MVP pack for a few weeks. Since the Ram loss and Baker’s shoulder strain the team has gone 1-4. The defense’s secondary was broken over this 4 game losing streak. Todd Bowles’s voice no longer resonates with his players. The Tampa Meltdown is imminent. I grant you, the Panthers aren’t a steady team. One week they beat the Rams or a healthier Packer team. The next week they blow it to the Saints. The Buccaneers however have found innovative ways to lose for month. This is a team ready to crator. Bowles, who I support, but lost the team, will likely update his LinkedIn to “Open to Work” by Black Monday. This team may see major departures from long tenured plays. The Panthers are ready to meet the moment of tasting the postseason. Panthers straight-up, over 43.5 points.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) @ San Francisco 49ers O/U 49.5

How are the Seahawks favored? This is another rat line. I sniffed out some rodenticide two weeks ago when the Patriots “upset” the Ravens on the road. Wasn’t an upset to me. Seattle being favored at home is one thing, but on the road? If the Seahawks win on Saturday and they earn the 1 seed in the NFC. A loss may result going on the road to the NFC South champion. I’m having deja vu… Sam Darnold found himself in the same scenario almost one year to the day while on the Vikings facing the Detroit on the road week 18 2024. This time Darnold is favored. Look, Seattle beating the Rams was probably the best regular season game of the 2025 season. It was incredible and who wasn’t thrilled for Darnold? Sure we all were, but the guy throws interceptions almost every week. Most times multiple picks. The Rams win doesn’t look as good after another stunning loss Monday night to the eliminated Falcons. Rams are trending down, the 49ers have been trending up over a 6 game winning streak. 49ers straight-up, under 49.5 points.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 40.5

Loser leaves town? More like loser joins the ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX media carousel. Whoever loses will likely part ways with their head coach. Whomever wins will host the Shakey’s Bowl during wild card weekend, and lose at home. Either way, Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh will likely be looking for new employment. Both are great coaches, deserve another opportunity, and will have success again, but their time in the AFC North is done. Both teams must ponder overhauling their organization top down. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have come to another crossroads. There are plenty of rumors but no reports of Baltimore seriously considering moving on from Jackson. There’s enough smoke to indicate discontent among management and his fellow players. Something has to change, but not until their season ends. It won’t end Sunday night. Baltimore’s defense has enough talent to suppress Pittsburgh’s decrepit offense. Snoop Huntley and another 30 carry effort from Derrick Henry should be enough to roll over an ancient Steeler defense. Don’t be afraid to lay the points. Ravens cover, under 40.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 4, 2025

Mabel had anaphylaxis on Monday. Anaphylaxis is a severe life-threatening allergic reaction that can occur in dogs. Histamine and other chemicals are released from the body’s immune system in response to an allergen. Causes of anaphylaxis are insect bites and stings, food allergies, mediciations, and chemicals.

The day started routinely. I woke up with Mabel, equipped her harness and leash, and walked the blocked. She performed her lavatory business, as usual, and I started my work day in the office. At around 9 AM Mabel vomited her entire breakfast and staggered outside our bedroom. A lone piece of excrement in the corner of the hallway to the bedroom. My wife, Lili, an accomplished veterinarian, sprung into action. She checked Mabel’s gums and saw they were pale, almost white.

“It’s probably anaphylaxis.” Mabel began defecating. “I’m taking her to work.” I stayed behind to clean up before leaving to meet my pride and joy, and my wife. A doctor cautiously diagnosed Mabel with anaphylaxis based on her symptoms. Later the blood work all but confirmed it. Anaphylaxis is difficult to diagnose without observing the exact moment a dog interacts with causing agent, for example a wayward ant. The doctor hospitalized Mabel for 12 hours. We picked her up after midnight.

Mabel is fine, but clearly a little traumatized from the event. She didn’t understand what happened to her. Tuesday and Wednesday were spent resting and recovering. Since then she’s back to her old self, thankfully. So how do I transition this into NFL spreads? Poorly, but I will endeavor. The Raiders defecated twos in a row… See! Poorly! Let’s just get into it. The Preseason (weeks 1-4) is nearly over. After this slate we should understand these teams more clearly and better project the remaining three quarters of the season.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 41.5

I don’t care this game is being played in Dublin. Pittsburgh can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers cannot handle push rush pressure this season. Rodgers has been pressured on 30.2% (ranked 27th) of his 96 drop backs, according to Pro Football Focus, going 6/22 passing, 146 YDs, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Granted his line isn’t offering adequate protection but in his prime pressure didn’t bother Rodgers, and that’s the point. He’s not who he once was. This Pittsburgh team as it’s been for over a decade is just middling. I really don’t care who is playing quarterback for Minnesota. I trust Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. Vikings cover and over 41.5 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), O/U 46.5

After two weeks of investing in the 49ers I’m shorting them this week. The quarterback position seems incredibly volatile in San Francisco. Sure Brock Purdy has been cleared to start but back-up Mac Jones is questionable and was limited in practice this week. Both WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are also questionable. Admittedly both teams are a little messy. 49ers beat up on the Saints and failed to cover against the Cards. They were lucky to beat the Seahawks who are looking strong after 4 weeks at 3-1 (3-1 ATS). The 2-1 Jags are 2-1 ATS and are teetering on the “we’re a good bad team” to a good team fault line. Instinctually I’m taking the Jags to cover and under 46.5 points. Just too many points, and the 49ers capricious QB room makes me nervous. Also the 49ers special teams are ass.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5), O/U 44.5

I don’t give two fucks, I’m shorting the Dolphins again. Sure both teams are 0-3 but the Jets are 2-1 ATS while Miami is 1-2. The Jets could be 2-1. In no universe is Miami anything other than 0-3 and they’ll be 0-4 Monday night. I’m not surprised the Fins are favored. Look at the public treads, most of the tickets (57%) and money (53%) are on the Fins to cover (even more so on the moneyline). People just can’t quit a team that was hot for 11 weeks 2-3 years ago. I’m old enough to have seen trendy teams come and go, like the band Fun or the 15 minute celebrity of Sabrina Carpenter. We’ll forget her in a year or two. We’ll also hopefully forget Chris Grier, the longest tenured GM without a playoff win, who has achieved nothing since his hiring in 2016. Nerdboy Mike McDaniel will be back on the 49ers this season or next as some sort of consultant or coordinate. Miami will dump Tua and his salary like Mabel trying to expel the allergic reaction she had from her anus. The longest-tenured current NFL general manager without a playoff win.

Honorable Mention: Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5), O/U 43.5

I texted my dad and my good friend Andrew Murray my picks (I didn’t think I’d finish this blog). I only pick 3 spreads a week but this one really has my attention. The Falcons were just boat raced 0-30 by a terrible Panthers team. After a loss like that statistically teams bounce back and cover the spread over 70% of the time. But this is Atlanta… I don’t take them seriously organizationally on down from their “Super Bowl Winning” GM Terry Fontenot, as Michael Lombardi would say (I miss him podcasting). Washington on the other hand is a well built team and stellar organization. They won easily with Marcus Mariota. I expect more of the same this week. Condoms straight up! Over 43.5 points.