Raiders – Disaesthetic

5 Overs for 2025

Pacers finished the Knicks Saturday night to make only their second NBA Finals appearance in their existence. My dad called the Pacers winning by 20 points, spread was Pacers -4. Siakam winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the team advancing to the Finals had some incredible futures.

It’s been a great story, but the ride ends in Oklahoma City with a gentleman’s sweep. The end can’t come fast enough either. I’m ready for football. I’m not sure how many more podcasts I can stand without listening to Cousin Sal or Shea in Irving lament the Cowboys. Or Bill Simmons exclaiming the Saints are the new 99 Rams.

SGA, Haliburton, or Giannis trade destinations aren’t doing it for me. Neither’s another Pablo Torre “investigation” into Bill Belichick where Pablo denies his interest in their age difference while spiraling into the same depravity as Belichick. No more farewell pods or Youtube homages for Inside The NBA. It’ll be back on ESPN (unless they fuck it up). I just can’t do more of these…

Ok well maybe more pods about Zion’s rape and abuse allegations. The man’s a victim of hubris, pussy, and Popeyes. A combination I can almost understand. I too get high and mighty about my cats and fried chicken.

No! I’m ready for football! And I’m ready to be wrong and hurt again!!! Let’s do some fucking futures baby. I’ve got two teams who’ve been good to me, two new teams I’m falling in like with, and one team that keeps shoving a freshly sharpened Ticonderoga up my ass each year. And yet… I CAN’T QUIT YOU!!!

Los Angeles Rams, Over 9.5 Wins
Rams have been 10-7 two years in a row and this improving roaster gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles all the could handle in the divisional round. The year before the Rams almost beat a red hot Lions squad. Rams get the AFC South this season which is at least three easy wins (Colts, Titans, Jags). I like the Rams to win at least 10 games and make another run all the way to lose in the NFC Championship, which you can get on Draft Kings at +850. Love that value. You can get over 9.5 at around -150.

Carolina Panthers, Over 6.5 Wins
After their week 11 bye the Panthers started showing signs geniune development. Carolina gave the Eagles and Chiefs a hell of a fight, took their rival Buccaneers to OT, and eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs. They finished 5-12, but Bryce Young showed the team and every Ringer employee he was no bust. The draft proved the team has invested its future into Bryce. Outside of their division, the schedule isn’t rosey. Drawing the AFC East won’t be easy with the exception of the Dolphins. Even the Jets with seemingly legitimate head coaching will be a long day. But they do get the Jaguars in the opener. 7 wins for a team that covered 5 of 7 game spreads against several playoff teams after the bye piques my interest.

I’m Vita Vea’s replacement (in two years)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Over 9.5 Wins
I admit, the Bucs are a weird fucking team. They were 4-6 going into their bye week and had lost 4 games in a row. Maybe they spent their bye on Isla de Muerta to pick up cursed gold cuz those guys went 6-1, if not for the Cowboys, the rest of the way. They lost to an incredible Commanders team in close fashion who went on to the NFC title game. The prior year also had a 4 game losing streak which was matched by a 4 game winning streak and a hard fought division round loss against the Lions.

The Bucs snagged WR Emeka Egbuka in the draft for the future with veterans Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin nearing the ends of their careers. CBs Benjamin Morris and Jacob Pariah fill needs in an always injured secondary force to call upon the practice squad. Oh! And they signed 6′ 6″ 464 LB undrafted free agent defensive tackle Desmond Watson, the heaviest player in NFL history, destined to replace Vita Vea.

Head Coach Todd Bowles told ESPN’s Jenna Laine “to judge him right now is very early, and we didn’t get him for the tush push — we got him because we really thought he could play.” Bowles continued “right now, we just have to see how long he can stay on the field, andnput him on a program where we think he can make some progress.” Watson still needs to make the roster but he’s slimmed down 27 LBs while in rookie mini-camp. I’m clearly way too invested in his success.

This team has veterans under contract, except Evans who is entering his final year, and bunch of young new players. 10-7 again in a division they’ve won two years straight makes a lot of sense. They’re by far the most stable franchise in the division too. Where things might go off the rails for this team though will be weeks 16 and 18 when the Bucs play their rival Panthers twice in three weeks. Those games will likely decide who wins the NFC South. Until I see someone consistently beat them for the division I’ll stick with the Bucs.

Houston Texans, Over 9.5 Wins
The CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans Texans regime finished it’s first two years losing in the divisional round to the well established Ravens and Super Bowl champion Chiefs… But apparently they’ll have to prove themselves to Mt. Carmel High School coach Diante Lee.

Anyways… I’m feeling pretty good about my Texans PROVING themselves to ole Diante, a man with more football credibility than anyone I’ve ever known, after going 10-7 (and hitting the over) two seasons in a row. Just to appetize even more, you can get the over at +100. They’ll taste the AFC Championship this year (+950). Two years of close losses in the Divisional they’re ready for the next logical progression. They’ve continued to draft well adding WRs Jaylen Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and resigning key contributors to the team.

The strength of schedule for the Texans is middling amongst most evaluators, although I see this schedule in the top third of difficulty. The NFC West is a clunky division with the Rams looking to make another run, an aging but retooling 49ers, and two pretty beatable teams in Seattle and Arizona. Not fun to have to play the Bucs out of conference, Ravens, and everyone in the AFC West, my pick for toughest division. Still, 10 wins getting to play the Colts, Titans, and Jags is likely 5 to 6 wins right there. They should at least split the NFC West. Maybe even split the AFC West. 10 wins should be easy money at +100 with a PROVEN track record.

Jim Harbaugh: “I’m just here so I won’t get fined.”

Las Vegas Raiders, Over 6.5 Wins
Maybe this will be the year I won’t thrust another pencil up my anus after another lost Raider season. No, this year does indeed feel different. The hiring of GM John Spytek and Head Coach Pete Carroll states an organizational goal of regaining credibility and respect in this league. New minority owner and Mark Davis whisperer Tom Brady provides stability at the top this team lost after Al Davis just simply got too old. Gruden had the team moving in the right direction before Daniel Snyder allegedly leaked his emails to the New York Times.

Since their Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneer the Raiders have only had two seasons of note. Both of which ended with Derek Carr breaking his fibula and Derek Carr mismanaging the end of game clock versus Cincinnati. I don’t give a rat’s ass what anyone thinks, if Carr just manages the clock correctly Raiders win that game. Cincy went on to lose in the Super Bowl.

This new administration completely fabrises the stench of Antonio Pierce, Josh McDaniels, Carr, and Gru who returned to the FFCA feeling nicey! Spytek spent his first draft truly building a team from both need and value. Admittedly I didn’t love the Jeanty pick at first; however, you combine him with the best quarterback they’ve had since MVP Rich Gannon, incredible skill players lead by Brock Bowers, and an improving line with LT Kolton Miller and C Jackson Powers-Johnson there’s enough talent (finally) to be a serious threat on offense every Sunday.

Funny how Geno Smith hasn’t even taken an in game snap and I’ve already anointed him the best Raiders QB since Gannon. That should tell all you non-Raider and Saint fans what it’s like living in QB mediocrity-hell.

Raiders added WR Jack Bech from TCU in the second round who will immediately contribute as a rookie both inside and out. By seasons end he’ll be the number 2 receiver. The Raiders used their high end picks to accumulate more picks which they used to bluster both sides of the line and the receiver room.

Regaining credibility is the prime objective this season. Raiders shouldn’t be favored in most games but I’m calling a split in the AFC West with all their rivals in the back half of the season (hopefully fucking over the Chiefs in the regular season finale). We also get the Bears, Titans, Browns, Giants, Jags, and Cowboys at home. For some reason we’ve been a thorn in Dallas’s side over the past few years.

There’s a clear road to 7 wins for this squad looking to gain back the honor to which their used to mean something in this league. There’s gonna be an upset win against a playoff team I can’t predict. Mostly, I just don’t want my hemorrhoids popped by lead point again.

Win Total Data: Vegas Insider

About to Spider 2 Y Banana These Wings!

There’s never been a more prolific start to an NFL season than the first two weeks of Pandemic football and offenses won’t slow down anytime soon.

Quarterback statistics are insane from mid-tier starters up to Russell Wilson who is completing over 80% of his passes with a 140 passer rating. Rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, with a pre-kickoff five minute heads up, have both played much better than most anticipated. Neither had a pre-season or the typical off-seasons rookies enjoy. Gardner Minshew looked like he’s sparking out there the first two weeks with a bunch of no name guys.

Why is this happen?

Offenses and defenses had the same off-seasons. There are still good defenses out there in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The rule changes I’ve witnessed over the last twenty years have fully come into fruition. Those changes had already made the NFL an offensive league; however, with a global pandemic limiting clubs’ time to prepare the game shows clear favoritism towards offense.

This is what we all signed up for.

None of us are watching for the defenses. TV rating history tells us that. Anecdotally this is true. Rams and Pats played the last “bad” Super Bowl. Admittedly I enjoyed watching the defenses execute their schemes and make adjustments until half time. As the game wore on it felt excruciating watching Belichick and gang suffocate the breath out of the Rams.

I doubt we’ll have any such game this year. Every team so far has scored in the double digits.

The league only sells what the fans want to buy. If the public really loved watching defense the NFL would set rules allowing players to rough up receivers and obstruct them from catching passes. Obviously, that is not the case. As long as some of the defenses can stop a nosebleed or at least be competent it’s a great product. Especially if you love betting the lines.

My buddy Andrew and I started recording what has already been an annual affair in our ten year friendship. We will talk on the phone for an hour plus on Monday or Tuesday and react to each game from Sunday. Andrew will recall my infamous Peterman rant which really got us thinking about recording these conversations.

Let me set the scene for you. Raiders’ first season with Jon Gruden bombed. Almost everything he said turned into a meme or an embarrassing moment for the media grind their axes on. We were losing a lot that season and again I was embarrassed. I was driving home from work one December beaten down from work listening to a podcast when the hosts talked about the Raiders signing Nathan Peterman…

I had my window down, stuck in 5 o’clock traffic, and wailed at the radio console “THE FUCKING PETERMAN?!”

At that moment I became completely unhinged. I picked up the phone and called Andrew immediately yammering away. Poor guy could not get a word in to even say hello. My main point of infuriating emphasis was the Peterman was now the fourth stringer. Fourth stringer… Gruden we can’t stop a fucking sneeze and you want another quarterback?!

“THAT’S GREAT WE’RE DEFINITELY GONNA WIN WITH FOUR FUCKIN’ QUARTERBACK?!” Andrew laughed hysterically.

Do I sound maniacal? Absolutely. That’s sports and being a fan, a fanatic. It makes us crazy, but we love it. Otherwise why come back every Sunday in September? I still pace and yell at the tv when the Raiders play. Talk to myself like there’s two of me in the room. Reasoning with myself how we might win this one. When we’re losing I lament how far we are away from hope.

I’m embarrassed. Why the fuck am I embarrassed? It’s just a game. I have no impact on the game. I’m not coaching, GMing, nor playing.

Being a sports fan is completely irrational. I’m all in for another Sunday.

As I mentioned earlier Andrew and I started recording our conversions this season and picking the lines. Minshew was all out of mana on Thursday completely blowing my prediction. I’m glad the Jags weren’t one of my top three lines of the week. I hope to make these predictions a regular blog routine prior to Sundays.

My pick of the week is Patriots over the Raiders -6.5. Patriots are coming off a close loss to the Seahawks that they could’ve won. Great Sunday night game. Raider’s had two close wins and they’re due to come back to earth.

Belichick is not going 1-2. Look for the Patriots to control the clock with an exotic running game and a great mix of passing plays when the Raiders can’t stop the run which they’ve been unable to do in the last two weeks. Cam just needs to hit them deep a few times to loosen the weak Raider defense up.

The Pats’ offensive plan is exactly what the Raiders would like to do themselves, but will not execute today. They will stop Josh Jacobs and force Derek Carr to throw too much against a great Patriot secondary. Bad match up for us. Take the Pats to win by a touchdown or more.

Second pick of the week, Titans at Vikings getting -2.5. Are you kidding me? The Viks are a complete shit show and quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins. Need I say more? I’ll take Tennessee to win by more than a field goal. This one will get ugly earlier if Derrick Henry trucks the defense. I feel bad for coach Zimmer. It’s not on him.

Last pick of the weekend, Lions at Cardinals with Arizona getting -5.5. Again, just say thank you and take the Cards. This is too easy. The Lions are coached by Matt Patricia… There’s not a nickname bad enough for this idiot. Never understood why Jim Caldwell got fired. I’m sure it has nothing to do with him being black…

Anyways, looking forward to week three of football Sunday. Enjoy America. We need the momentary distraction. Monday we’re back to business.

Antonio is a Raider

My Oakland, soon to be Las Vegas, Raiders traded 3rd and 5th round 2019 draft picks to the Pittsburgh Steelers for wider receiver Antonio Brown.

Initial reaction, great… We’re adding a prima donna receiver and giving him more money on top of a three year contract. What could go wrong? A lot.

While no receiver of Brown’s caliber or contract length has ever been traded, I have reservations about the move putting the Raiders back into the playoff hunt.

This team needs improvement at every position, including quarterback. It’s uncertain how committed the team really is to Derek Carr. The vibes feel off however if Carr takes full advantage of Brown’s top tier talent he’ll solidify the position.

There’s a lot to breakdown here. Who won the trade? Ultimately both teams. The Steelers get off Brown’s money and personality, opening an opportunity to unquestionably feature Juju Smith-Schuster and build upon their team with more cash.

The Raiders get perhaps the best receiver in the NFL forfeiting two picks this year. I hate to see the 3rd rounder go; however, you have to give something of value.

Is a 3rd and 5th equal to Brown? No, so the Raiders paid of less value in compensation.

Adding Brown will serve as a litmus test for Carr’s future with the team. Carr’s performance was awful last season but deserves another opportunity after a year of transitioning with Jon Gruden and a sorry offensive line.

Look… This team still needs work everywhere, but this line should be better. Gruden claimed injuries dogged the line, somewhat true, yet the team reached on guys like Kolton Miller. OL coach Tom Cable did not produce results as he had in the past.

They’ve had a full season and an new off-season. There should be some improvement, enough to give Carr to throw it. If he still can’t do that it’s time to move on.

I expect Brown’s first year as a Raider to be solid to great; unfortunately, that’s where I foresee his antics replaying themselves.

If the team isn’t competing as he’s used to or Carr doesn’t throw his way lookout for drama. Carr must perform well or the organization has to hope Brown buys into Gruden’s vision…

Whatever the hell it is, and there lies my biggest concern as a fan. Gruden clearly orchestrates every aspect of football operations yet I can’t see or feel the team’s identity, culture, or what its plan(s) are.

If Antonio Brown is your foundational piece to establishing those aspects history is against us.

Perhaps times are changing. Chiefs’ receiver Tyreek Hill might get a $100 million dollar contract. Cannot deny his value to the team’s system and young QB.

Receivers historically just don’t equate to win shares, for example Odell Beckham Jr.

While it’s flashy to have Brown on my team now, certainly the biggest star we’ve had in over a decade, I worry this will mean nothing when it comes to winning games.