Looking Live at Wild Card Weekend, 2026

The league took me to the cleaners last week. I still stand by my Panthers pick, the rain didn’t help. I should have known better with the 49ers, no excuse, but I just didn’t trust Sam Darnold. I still don’t. The witchcraft Steelers continue practicing santeria somehow upset Baltimore. I knew I was in trouble when DeAndre Hopkins misread the situation with 39 seconds left in the game. Baltimore should’ve gone up 31-26. Forgot D-Hop was still in the league!

This weekend I need a repeat of my performances in weeks 15 and 16, going 5/6 on my picks. Like Walter Abrams I have something to sell. Stats are not enough. Bettors are ready to risk what they can’t afford, for what they can’t have! In an uncertain world, where Iran is on the cusp of regime change, Venezuela will change regimes, I’m selling the world’s rarest commodity: certainty. Let’s make some money.

Shakey’s Game: Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 45.5

This spread opened at 10 and only moved up half a point. Historically 10 or more point dogs in the playoffs are a mixed bag. 3 years ago Tua and Miami covered as 13.5 point dogs during winter in Buffalo. Just last year the Steelers were 10 point dogs in Baltimore and lost by 14. Most famously in 2011 the 7-9 Seahawks beat the defending champion Saints as 10 point dogs at home (best case for the Panthers). My immediate instinct was sprint to the booth for a Panthers +10 ticket. The argument against, of course, go against the public and Matt Stafford won’t throw 3 picks again, even though he did it the following week. Most of the money and tickets are on Carolina to cover. All fair, but this is the Shakey’s game. For 3 quarters the Rams will dominate and control the game, and in the 4th quarter Carolina weasels to a backdoor cover. Carolina +10.5, over 45.5.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears, O/U 44.5

Matt LaFleur is about to enjoy beating Ben Johnson twice a year. The Bears have beaten three teams with a winning record. Their defense is atrocious. Johnson talks a lot of shit and enjoys being the aggressor. But like most bullies he’s a bug eyed weirdo with a lot of hype but no real accomplishments. Many readers (and listeners) know I enjoyed criticizing LaFleur in the past, but he’s had the job for 7 years now, 3-5 in the playoffs, and has reached the NFC championship. This is more of a pick driven by my contempt for Johnson, and LaFleur’s experience. Look for Green Bay to shutdown the run game, force Caleb Williams to be the hero (he’ll fail), and rested Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, and offensive line throwing all over the Bears. Most of the betting public is on Chicago. I fucking love the pain the books are about to inflict on people’s wallets. This is easy, lock of the weekend, Packers -1.5, over 44.5.

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 51.5

How are the Bills with its abysmal rushing defense, worst of the remaining playoff teams, favored against the red hot Jaguars, at home, who have the best ranked rushing defense? This line is solely based on Josh Allen alone. RAT LINE ALERT! Let’s start with some easy stuff. Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game. The franchise has lost eight straight road playoff games and hasn’t won a road playoff game since the 1992. Jaguars are 7-2 ats at home. 12-5 ats overall with a 13-4 record. While the Bills are 12-5, they’re 8-9 ats. Jacksonville’s game plan will likely take out Buffalo’s rushing attack and force their receivers to make a play. I remind you Brandin Cooks might be their best receiver. I favor defenses in these types best offense vs best defense scenarios. I also believe in Trevor Lawrence. He has “the look” of a guy ready to solidify his status as one of the tier 2 QBs in the league, below Mahomes who is in a tier of his own. Jaguars straight-up, over 51.5.

Shakey’s 2.0: San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), O/U 44.5

If you wanted a two for one special at Shakey’s, you can get in Philadelphia. The Mojo combo featuring the 49ers and Eagles offers something for everyone! Injury plagued Niners. Ice pick in eyes Eagles offense. 49er fans have already accused the NFL of mailing in the fix with assigned head zebra Allen Eck. In games lead by Eck, the Eagles are 8-1, including their victory over the 49ers in the 2023 NFC Championship. Brock Purdy was knocked out of that game with an elbow injury in the first half. The 49ers are 3-6 in games reffed by Eck. The line opened at Eagles -3.5, but now at -5.5 I like the 49ers. Feels too high for a Philly offense which has the entertainment value of paint drying. I realize the line moved up due to the 49ers’ mounting injuries, especially on defense, but Trent Williams seems to be trending towards playing. If he plays, which I’m betting he will, 49ers will make this game competitive. Weather conditions may slog-up the game. 49ers +5.5, BIG under 44.5.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-3.5), O/U 45.5

This game I had the hardest time deciding my position. New England will win the game, but it’s their first playoff game with this young core. Weather in Foxborough is gonna suck. I copped out and texted Andrew Murray, Chargers Fan (ha!), his bottomline take. Their line has been a problem all year, but especially since Joe Alt went down. Andrew also hates the Chargers OC Greg Roman. Charger fans complaints center around Roman’s repudiation of solidifying long-term adjustments. The man always returns to his base scheme the following week after correcting an in game issue the previous week. Seems like Charger fans hope to find a new OC in the near future. They might be first in line! Offensively the Pats may be slow out the gate but they’ll likely overwhelm LA in time of position. Chargers may struggle to anything going offensively and be forced into a one-dimensional passing offense. Patriots -3.5, under 45.5.

Houston Texans (-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 38.5

The Voodoo Steelers were a nice story, but the neighborhood Hoodoo has run out of dolls, pins, and mojo bags. The Texans have the best defense in the NFL. They don’t play like a pack of wolves, they’re the white blood cells in your body. If the Steelers manage to get past or even block (for a play) Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Sheldon Rankins, and Denico Autry (good luck with that) the Texans’ linebackers will locate and erase the ball carrier. The secondary routinely blankets receivers. Sure, DK Metcalf returns after suspension and… It won’t make the difference. Kenneth Gainwell’s quickness might be the tougher assignment for the Texans. Offensively the Texans make timely explosive plays. CJ Stroud and OC Nick Caley found their footing in recent weeks despite inconsistent offensive line and running back play. This will be an ugly, boa constrictor, game in Caribbean Pittsburgh. Texans -3, under 38.5.

Looking Live at NFL Week 2, 2025

The first week of NFL action is in the books! Last week I hit 2/3 of my favorite spreads and 2/3 on my over/under picks. Overall I was 8-8 against the spread (ats) and only hit 7/16 on the over/unders. I definitely care most about my ats record with a goal of 55% ats for the season. We certainly learned the Bills and Packers may have dominate regular season. Currently the Bills are favored in every regular season game so far. The Packer may be favored in all but 1 or 2 games for the rest of the regular season. We also learned it may be time to short the Dolphins and Giants for the rest of the year. Sure Giants LT Andrew Thomas being out certainly hurt the team, but he’s not helping the Giants offense enough to compete with the Commanders, Eagles, or Cowboys. Thomas is no stranger to injury and it’s unclear when he will return from said injury.

I had several notes and ideas of what we learned from week 1 and a few awards. Browns QB Joe Flacco certainly won the Joe Harris Award for “this guy can do some things” still in this league. Browns should have never let him walk in 2024. But I’m tired and it’s nearly midnight. Here are my top 3 favorite for week 2.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5), O/U 42 ½

“Short everything that man has touched” is what Mark Baum in The Big Short would say if the movie was about Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. “Nerd Boy” as ESPN’s Rex Ryan affectionately calls him leads the pack at -200 for first NFL head coach fired, per Covers. The Colts lead 30-0 before Miami scored half way through the 4th quarter in junk time. Sure, give new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo credit for building a competent scheme and strategy after years of Gus Bradley. If Nerd Boy is such an offensive guru why could he not adjust or even foresee such an onslaught from the Colts in all phases? QB Daniel Jones craved up Miami’s defense with relative ease. The Colts dominated the lines of scrimmage throughout the game. Perhaps I’m putting too much weight on McDaniel and not criticizing roster construction more; however, this team is a reflection of McDaniel’s offensive philosophy and ideas of how he wants to attack opponents.

Rex Ryan simply said the obvious, whether people want to hear it or not. The Miami Dolphins are soft, a story reported in joint practices several times, and McDaniel seems visibly ill-equipped and incompetent as far as leading football players. The guy can be an incredible coordinator but he’s not a legitimate head coach right now. New Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel clearly outclasses McDaniel overseeing a team in all three phases of the game. The Patriots defensive line is strong enough to pressure Tua. Vrabel just needs to watch the Colts tape for simple plan of attack. Patriots straight-up (SU) under 42.5 points. This game would likely not be on anyone’s multiview screen, but buy as many Miami Credit Default Swaps as possible.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), O/U 44 ½

As I predicted last week the Browns are gonna be big dogs often in the first 4 games of the season, and I’m buying! From 2019 Baltimore has only covered 12 or more points in 3 games against the Browns, one of which was in week 18 last year when the Browns were dying to end the season. Flacco looked solid back with the Browns and we’ll likely get the best out of Flacco in the first 4 weeks of the season. Oddly enough Flacco has never played the Raven as a Brown, and only played his former team as a Jet in 2022. He’s yet to have revenge against the Ravens. I’ll take the Ravens to win the game as they can’t attempt fate again like last year starting 0-2. Only thing that worries me is only 17% of the public betting money is on the Browns to cover. While 83% of the bets are on the Browns to cover but most of the money is on the Ravens. Smells like sharp money, but they’re wrong. The Ravens have rarely trucened the Brown over the past 5 season, and are barely over .500 ats versus the Browns. Give me the Browns getting 11.5 and under 44.5 points.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 46 ½

The last time the Chiefs went 0-2 was in 2014. The team went 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The Chiefs middled for a few seasons until they drafted QB Patrick Mahomes in 2017. This is only the third time in his career Mahomes has been a home dog with a 1-1 record. The “home” game he won was in Germany. The other was in Kansas City against Buffalo, and the Bills covered. If you’re picking Philly to cover or even taking the Philly moneyline (-108), you’re essentially betting the Chiefs will likely miss the playoffs. Only 35 teams have made the playoffs since 1990 after starting 0-2. Granted, the Ravens, Broncos, and Rams all made the playoffs last year after starting 0-2; however, 288 teams since 1990 have started 0-2 and only 35 (12.15%) of those teams made the playoffs.

I’m not buying the Chiefs going 0-2. Chiefs SU and over 46.5 points. Grab that +105 moneyline too. While I’m down on the Chiefs (I picked the Chargers straight up) I have too much respect for this team, especially Mahomes who may be the greatest underdog in all of sports. He’s 10-3 SU as an underdog regular and post-season. The Eagles already won a sketchy game against the Cowboys. Chiefs need this one more. Being home in Kansas City should help too. Per Sports Betting Dime 65% of the bets and 83% of the money is going to Philly. Hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes going 0-2 for the first time while still in his prime with at least an average to above average roster. Hell of a Monday morning on the talk shows if they go 0-2.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by César Hernández

Mabel Listens to Me

Yesterday I spent the closing hours of another “too short” weekend catching up on The Dynasty, an Apple TV documentary series of the New England Patriots. Just me and the dog, Mabel, who had zero interest in my enthrallment with Belichick souffléing an 11-5 record without Tom Brady or my elation (yes exhilaration) to hear Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, and Wes Welker widen the scope of Aaron Hernandez’s maniac behavior behind the walls of the Patriots organization.

With a freshly made vodkarita in hand… Look I’m not doing footnotes here… I haven’t replaced the Don Julio yet. I refuse anything beneath Don Julio in terms of tequila. Anyways, I’m ready to sip my next libation as Ernie Adams, Patriots Director of Football Research, whatever the fuck that means, takes into the next episode.

“We were looking for toughness and intensity in a football player. In the fourth round, we found this guy that we liked. You know, there was were some off-the-field issues. We thought ‘There’s a degree of risk here, but it makes sense to take it.’ But looking in hindsight, of course, we did not understand the full dimensions of what the problem was.”

“OH SHIT!” I holler out in my buzzed thrill, waking poor Mabel from behind the couch. Is it fucked up to get excited about an Aaron Hernandez episode? Yeah probably, but I can’t help my fascination with problematic millionaires with celebrity, status, and power who murder multiple victims like it’s another Tuesday. The man was unhinged but still managed to play an entire regular season of football, a Super Bowl, and $40 million dollar contract after murdering multiple men in cold blood.

When Brandon Lloyd recalls Wes Welker warning him “Aaron, he’s gonna fondle his genitalia in front of you, he’s gonna talk about bathing with his mom, and you’ve just gotta ignore it” how can you not feel captivated. And yeah Hernandez is as charming as the 6 AM turd I pick from Mabel every morning. Still, that shit always stunk and to hear a new dimension to his depravity only makes everyone involved look even worse. Belichick, Adams, the Krafts, all of the Patriots organization.

Which brings me to Belichick. What the hell is this smear campaign? It’s not just this docu series. There’s an entire media narrative squeeze every ounce of discredit-paste out of the Belichick tube. Like serious, what is the fucking rhetoric “hE nEvEr wOn wItHoUt bRaDy!”

Bill Walsh never won without Joe Montana. Andy Reid never won without Patrick Mahomes. Chuck Noll never won without Terry Bradshaw.

You almost never win without a Hall of Fame quarterback. In the 21st century, only Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco, and Nick Foles will not make it to the Hall of Fame. Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford are borderline guys, but Tom Brady (7x Super Bowls), Ben Roethlisberger (2x), Peyton Manning (2x), Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes (3x) are Hall of Famers.

Yeah, Brady is the greatest. It’s not a debate for me. Mahomes is more talented, clearly, but he’s not even half up Everest yet. This isn’t about those guys. This is about Bob and Jonathan Kraft’s egos. Guys, you want equal credit for the Brady Belichick dynasty? What, because you hired Bill? Because you sign the checks? You didn’t cultivate the greatest NFL dynasty. Those two men did.

No matter how actively those two try to rewrite history and the reform the narrative, those of us who watched for the past two decades plus and give a shit about what happen know greatest sports run in the 21st century started with Belichick, and yes, if not for Brady, there wouldn’t be six Lombardi trophies at 1 Patriot Place.

Who will the Krafts blame when they don’t win another Super Bowl for a decade plus? Will they still blame Bill? Whose fault will it be? I sat there alone in my living room thinking about who they would flick the nickel to. Not a dollar, a nickel, since the Krafts received failing grades from an NFLPA report card in treatment of families, weight room, team travel, and…

D+ in ownership? Bobby you are the owner?!

I’m really looking forward to Belichick coming back for the 2025 season and having a few FUCK YOU seasons with another team. It’ll be fun to listen to all the scribes and hacks do a 180 when he finds success again.

When the thoughts come to their natural conclusion I’m still alone. Speculating about how crazy Hernandez really was or Belichick’s besmirchment on my own. Mabel already back asleep and amnesic about my furor. I’m reminded of Chuck Klosterman’s theory of what history and culture lives on after us.

Those of us who care the most archive and document the information to ensure its record. Those who care the least however determine what will live on past our time on earth.

I worry I’ve become one of those people who care the most (care too much) about things that matter very little to most people, including my wife, friends, and family. Even my dad, who introduced me to football and American sport, could give a shit about Belichick and if he’ll get another job.

To be clear, I care about this individual because I’ve shaped much of professional approach to my career based on how Belichick shaped his culture in New England and his approach to managing a team. I’m far more goofy and willing to share myself with others, but I admire his fearlessness executing decisions in best interest of the organization.

His approach included dispassionate choices of personnel, exploiting the weakness (and stupidity) of opponents, and direct confrontation with players when he delivered coaching.

Matt Cassel shared a bit of coaching from Bill in The Dynasty. “One time, I don’t see a corner blitz, and I get absolutely annihilated, like boom! Belichick comes in and he says, ‘Cassel, can we figure out the corner blitz? Because I don’t want to have to write your mother a letter that says, ‘Dear Mrs. Cassel, we’re sorry to inform you that your son is dead because he’s a dumbass and didn’t see the corner blitz.'”

Remember that NFLPA report card I mentioned earlier? Only 55% of players felt Belichick was efficient with their time and felt he was rarely willing to listen to the locker room. Being demanding in the NFL, or just in life general is just too uncomfortable for “modern” people.

You can try bubble wrapping the world all you want, but life is demanding. It’s not supposed to be easy. Stress, anxiety, confrontation, and discomfort all exist naturally in our world. Avoiding them and hiding in your pantry won’t make them ago away.

Difficult feelings aren’t negative or positive. They’re a natural response to a situation. It’s unfortunate society decays into deeper brittleness. Belichick’s ousting is small in scale but not unimportant in the grand scheme of culture frailty in America. Sadly, I’m the only one I know personally who cares as much or even believes this phenomenon cries out for attention.

Maybe that’s the hardest part about caring. Always has been for me, whether it was small unheralded bands like Roomrunner or overlooked Dragonball Z characters, Gohan from Trunks’ timeline. You push in your own way year after year with your own oratory, but the people in your life don’t really care anymore than the first time they heard your speech. In fact, they just want you to shut up about it finally. At least the dog will stick around and listen

Maybe I’m just bummed I’ve run out of friends willing to listen lay out these ideas over a few beers. I’m 32 and can’t honestly say I can give them the same time I did when I was 22, 25, or 28. I showed my wife Stand By Me for the first time a few weeks ago, and the ending keeps resurfacing in my head. Feels like all these friendships will turn into Chris Chambers. I won’t see them every year or for years, but I know I’ll miss them .

You never have friends later in life like the ones we have in adolescences or in my case before I really became an independent adult.