Ding-dong the witch is dead
Which old witch? The wicked witch
Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead
Finally, the Chiefs are done. The bread line… I mean the penalty line is closed until further notice. No more socialist handouts for Jawaan Taylor. No more Travis Kelce tantrums (although I’ve enjoyed two weeks of humiliation). No more glazing for Patrick Mahomes who can’t throw down field anymore, and essentially became a running quarterback. Of course it’s fun to bag on Kermit, he’s still great and I hope for a full recovery, but for the first time there’s adversity. Perhaps some doubt about how he and the organization bounces back. They are not one offseason away from another dynasty run.
Anyways, who cares about teams out of the playoffs. HA! Who am I kidding? Two of my favorite picks of the week involve non-playoff teams, like a real degenerate! Week 16 has a few loser leaves town showdowns and draft order implications. A Colts loss clinches playoff berths for most of the AFC teams ahead of them. The Giants, Titans, and my Raiders, all 2-12, need to keep losing to retain a top 3 draft choice, possibly the first overall pick. While not a QB heavy draft, these squads need all the help they can get from college prospects. They’ll all have new head coaches as well, including the Raiders who are working to put Sleepy Pete Carroll in the bingo club.
This offseason may be one of the most interesting in years. The Chiefs must rebuild their roster from the inside out. While many excuse their offensive line play with injuries, their performance does not meet the standard of a Super Bowl caliber team. Neither does their defensive line. “Chris Jones has lost a step” is a cruddy excuse. Jones is older sure, but he’s still playing at blue chip level. The rest of the defense needs to step up. Also, the zebras won’t be helping Jawaan and his remaining $27M salary.
Joe Burrow appears interested in greener pastures, or maybe Andrew Luck part deux (hopefully not). The Bengals, briefly, shook their “Bumgels” tag for a couple of seasons, but Mike Brown is still the owner. As a fan of Al Davis’ Raiders and a resident of the greater Dallas area I can tell Cincy fans you’ll never win anything while Mr. Brown owns the franchise.
Regardless of what happens in Baltimore, it’s time to move on from John Harbaugh. I suspect we may be in for a Bloody Monday which will also include the Cardinals, Falcons, Raiders, Browns, and should include the Dolphins and Bengals. I have serious doubts Mike Brown will fire Zac Taylor. The DJ may live to spin a few more records in Miami. Anyways, here’s Wonderwall.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Tennessee Titans O/U 37.5
This one opened at 11.5 before the Mahomes injury. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The 2-12 Titans have more motivation to keep losing to at least reach a top 3 draft choice, despite playing hard each week. QB Cam Ward has started every game this season and playing his ass off. Tennessee’s defense while ranked low by most outlets faces Gardner Minshew, a depleted offensive line, weak running backs, and receivers who wouldn’t start most teams. The defense plays hard and ranks poorly due to their offense. What kind of fight does this Chiefs team have? Not much if you ask me. Say what you will about him, Mahomes kept the offense relevant entirely on his own. Talking heads and blog boys have questioned Mahomes’ leadership, perhaps there’s some smoke, but we’ll find out Sunday how much mediocrity he covered up. I think we’re going to find a black mold infestation. Give me Titans +3 and over 37.5. Man if you took this at 11, walk up to the booth now.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins O/U 47.5
This pick comes from instinct rather than sabermetrics. Sometimes having kinetic intuition serves one better than analytics. For example last week I correctly surmised to bet against Tua in Pittsburgh on a December night. Now Tua is benched, Mike McDaniel still coaching for his job, and rookie Quinn Ewers gets his first start. Ewers is up for this. He starts at home, gets all the first team reps, and faces a Bengals defense dead last in total defense according to most outlets. His scouting report coming out of Texas was mixed. He gets credit for helping Sarkisian turn around the program, going 27-9, 11-1 on the road. In Texas’ first season in the SEC, Ewer’s last college season, he played 14 games, going 11-3, passed for 3,472 yds, 31 TDs, 12 INTs, 65.8% completion rate. Ewers set records with 1st in single-season 300+ yard passing games (6) for Texas, per CFBStats and NCAA data.
So what about the negatives? He’s criticized for being injured regularly and not having a strong enough arm. Well in the past 12 months Ewers has played little meanful football as a benchwarmer for Miami, and arm strength may be one of the most overrated desired traits. There’s consensus Ewers is a developmental QB, and we know arm strength can be developed. Where does Ewer excel? Short and intermediate routes, which require accuracy and precision. He’s had most of a season learning an offense which leans into quick short-intermediate passes to playmakers. The fins are clearly making changes for the future, and the Bengals? Only thing that’s changed is Joe Burrow’s attitude.
“He’s a headcase” as my dad would say. Burrow is justified to be in his feelings. He’s closer to becoming Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer than he is Luka Doncic. He may be checked out; meanwhile, the Bumgals concern themselves with denying per diem, garage sales, limiting Gatorade to the players, saving on podiums, and google the rest of the stories. Mike Brown is a cheap bastard, and the league will be better off when he no longer owns the team. Until then, they’re the Bumgals. Give me Miami +3.5 and over 47.5. Wrote way too much for this poo poo platter game!
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) O/U 48.5
How the hell are the Ravens favored? This is a damn rat line. Something’s wrong with Lamar Jackson. I don’t care that he won last week. The guy was 8-12 passing and still managed to throw a pick to the scoreless Bumgals who are done and checked out. Now he faces a tough Pats team, coming off a loss, who needs to keep winning. Yeah I don’t think so. This one will be short and sweet. Patriots straight up and over 48.5. Now, I will acknowledge the public is all over New England on this one (85%). I don’t give a shit. Pats are 6-0 on the road. I do not believe in this Ravens team. This feels like the game that gets John Harbaugh fired. The Ravens feel overdue for big organization changes.
Disaesthetic 