Tag: NFL

Looking Live at Wild Card Weekend, 2026

The league took me to the cleaners last week. I still stand by my Panthers pick, the rain didn’t help. I should have known better with the 49ers, no excuse, but I just didn’t trust Sam Darnold. I still don’t. The witchcraft Steelers continue practicing santeria somehow upset Baltimore. I knew I was in trouble when DeAndre Hopkins misread the situation with 39 seconds left in the game. Baltimore should’ve gone up 31-26. Forgot D-Hop was still in the league!

This weekend I need a repeat of my performances in weeks 15 and 16, going 5/6 on my picks. Like Walter Abrams I have something to sell. Stats are not enough. Bettors are ready to risk what they can’t afford, for what they can’t have! In an uncertain world, where Iran is on the cusp of regime change, Venezuela will change regimes, I’m selling the world’s rarest commodity: certainty. Let’s make some money.

Shakey’s Game: Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 45.5

This spread opened at 10 and only moved up half a point. Historically 10 or more point dogs in the playoffs are a mixed bag. 3 years ago Tua and Miami covered as 13.5 point dogs during winter in Buffalo. Just last year the Steelers were 10 point dogs in Baltimore and lost by 14. Most famously in 2011 the 7-9 Seahawks beat the defending champion Saints as 10 point dogs at home (best case for the Panthers). My immediate instinct was sprint to the booth for a Panthers +10 ticket. The argument against, of course, go against the public and Matt Stafford won’t throw 3 picks again, even though he did it the following week. Most of the money and tickets are on Carolina to cover. All fair, but this is the Shakey’s game. For 3 quarters the Rams will dominate and control the game, and in the 4th quarter Carolina weasels to a backdoor cover. Carolina +10.5, over 45.5.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears, O/U 44.5

Matt LaFleur is about to enjoy beating Ben Johnson twice a year. The Bears have beaten three teams with a winning record. Their defense is atrocious. Johnson talks a lot of shit and enjoys being the aggressor. But like most bullies he’s a bug eyed weirdo with a lot of hype but no real accomplishments. Many readers (and listeners) know I enjoyed criticizing LaFleur in the past, but he’s had the job for 7 years now, 3-5 in the playoffs, and has reached the NFC championship. This is more of a pick driven by my contempt for Johnson, and LaFleur’s experience. Look for Green Bay to shutdown the run game, force Caleb Williams to be the hero (he’ll fail), and rested Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, and offensive line throwing all over the Bears. Most of the betting public is on Chicago. I fucking love the pain the books are about to inflict on people’s wallets. This is easy, lock of the weekend, Packers -1.5, over 44.5.

Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 51.5

How are the Bills with its abysmal rushing defense, worst of the remaining playoff teams, favored against the red hot Jaguars, at home, who have the best ranked rushing defense? This line is solely based on Josh Allen alone. RAT LINE ALERT! Let’s start with some easy stuff. Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game. The franchise has lost eight straight road playoff games and hasn’t won a road playoff game since the 1992. Jaguars are 7-2 ats at home. 12-5 ats overall with a 13-4 record. While the Bills are 12-5, they’re 8-9 ats. Jacksonville’s game plan will likely take out Buffalo’s rushing attack and force their receivers to make a play. I remind you Brandin Cooks might be their best receiver. I favor defenses in these types best offense vs best defense scenarios. I also believe in Trevor Lawrence. He has “the look” of a guy ready to solidify his status as one of the tier 2 QBs in the league, below Mahomes who is in a tier of his own. Jaguars straight-up, over 51.5.

Shakey’s 2.0: San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), O/U 44.5

If you wanted a two for one special at Shakey’s, you can get in Philadelphia. The Mojo combo featuring the 49ers and Eagles offers something for everyone! Injury plagued Niners. Ice pick in eyes Eagles offense. 49er fans have already accused the NFL of mailing in the fix with assigned head zebra Allen Eck. In games lead by Eck, the Eagles are 8-1, including their victory over the 49ers in the 2023 NFC Championship. Brock Purdy was knocked out of that game with an elbow injury in the first half. The 49ers are 3-6 in games reffed by Eck. The line opened at Eagles -3.5, but now at -5.5 I like the 49ers. Feels too high for a Philly offense which has the entertainment value of paint drying. I realize the line moved up due to the 49ers’ mounting injuries, especially on defense, but Trent Williams seems to be trending towards playing. If he plays, which I’m betting he will, 49ers will make this game competitive. Weather conditions may slog-up the game. 49ers +5.5, BIG under 44.5.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-3.5), O/U 45.5

This game I had the hardest time deciding my position. New England will win the game, but it’s their first playoff game with this young core. Weather in Foxborough is gonna suck. I copped out and texted Andrew Murray, Chargers Fan (ha!), his bottomline take. Their line has been a problem all year, but especially since Joe Alt went down. Andrew also hates the Chargers OC Greg Roman. Charger fans complaints center around Roman’s repudiation of solidifying long-term adjustments. The man always returns to his base scheme the following week after correcting an in game issue the previous week. Seems like Charger fans hope to find a new OC in the near future. They might be first in line! Offensively the Pats may be slow out the gate but they’ll likely overwhelm LA in time of position. Chargers may struggle to anything going offensively and be forced into a one-dimensional passing offense. Patriots -3.5, under 45.5.

Houston Texans (-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 38.5

The Voodoo Steelers were a nice story, but the neighborhood Hoodoo has run out of dolls, pins, and mojo bags. The Texans have the best defense in the NFL. They don’t play like a pack of wolves, they’re the white blood cells in your body. If the Steelers manage to get past or even block (for a play) Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Sheldon Rankins, and Denico Autry (good luck with that) the Texans’ linebackers will locate and erase the ball carrier. The secondary routinely blankets receivers. Sure, DK Metcalf returns after suspension and… It won’t make the difference. Kenneth Gainwell’s quickness might be the tougher assignment for the Texans. Offensively the Texans make timely explosive plays. CJ Stroud and OC Nick Caley found their footing in recent weeks despite inconsistent offensive line and running back play. This will be an ugly, boa constrictor, game in Caribbean Pittsburgh. Texans -3, under 38.5.

Looking Live at NFL Week 18, 2025

Life… is a game of inches. So is football. These wise words come from Coach Tony D’Amato in 1999’s Any Given Sunday. Tony understood the duality of life and football existed only in inches. The margin for error so small anymore than a fingernail could mean life or death. That, dear reader, is football.

You may have surmised by now I watched Any Given Sunday today, and you’re damn right. The movie prophesied the state of the NFL two plus decades into the future. Hotshot wunderkind offensive coordinators like Nick Crozier vying for the head coaching crown. Managing and disguising concussions so your starters keep playing. The emergence of the Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes prototype quarterbacks in late 2010’s. Sure we had Aaron Brooks and Michael Vick in the early 2000’s, but they were nowhere near what Mahomes, Jackson, or even Jalen Hurts have achieved. Willie Beamen would have kept the Chiefs playoff hopes alive, if he weren’t fictional.

Any Given Sunday cemented several character tropes seen daily on the national talking head shows and in the league today. Dr. Harvey Mandrake needs his own Ballers type mini-series on HBO. Ole Harvey, played by James Woods, loves the action and loves the players, in his own fucked up way. Kind of like Dee Dee Blanchard. “These men are gladiators, warriors!” And according to Harvey, football players made that choice a long time ago. While true, players then and now, understand the physical cost of football they still deserve to know what’s happening to their bodies. Harvey forgot that part.

Jack Rose and his midday cable show dished straight hot takes 4 years before Cold Pizza and a dozen years before Stephen A. Smith permanently sat across Skip Bayless on First Take. John C. McGinley, who portrays Jack, based his performance on Jim Rome, although he reminds me much more of Colin Cowherd and his cowturd take on being a sports media personality.

Most walk away from Any Given Sunday with Al Pacino’s speech as Tony D’Amato. It’s by far what should be remembered at the very least. Life is a game of inches, and so is football. The inches are everywhere around us, and when you add up all those inches that’s gonna make the fucking difference between winning and losing! That’s all I have to say to the following six teams playing this weekend to get in the tournament. Winner takes all. Loser leaves town. Living and dying! Football, dear reader. Now, are you gonna pick the dog? Or Tease the favorites?

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) O/U 43.5

Bryce Young might play a home game in the playoffs. How did we get here? Two years ago he was deemed a bust. Saturday he may help the Panthers win the NFC South for the first time in a decade! The Bucs should have wrapped this division up months ago. Baker Mayfield lead the MVP pack for a few weeks. Since the Ram loss and Baker’s shoulder strain the team has gone 1-4. The defense’s secondary was broken over this 4 game losing streak. Todd Bowles’s voice no longer resonates with his players. The Tampa Meltdown is imminent. I grant you, the Panthers aren’t a steady team. One week they beat the Rams or a healthier Packer team. The next week they blow it to the Saints. The Buccaneers however have found innovative ways to lose for month. This is a team ready to crator. Bowles, who I support, but lost the team, will likely update his LinkedIn to “Open to Work” by Black Monday. This team may see major departures from long tenured plays. The Panthers are ready to meet the moment of tasting the postseason. Panthers straight-up, over 43.5 points.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) @ San Francisco 49ers O/U 49.5

How are the Seahawks favored? This is another rat line. I sniffed out some rodenticide two weeks ago when the Patriots “upset” the Ravens on the road. Wasn’t an upset to me. Seattle being favored at home is one thing, but on the road? If the Seahawks win on Saturday and they earn the 1 seed in the NFC. A loss may result going on the road to the NFC South champion. I’m having deja vu… Sam Darnold found himself in the same scenario almost one year to the day while on the Vikings facing the Detroit on the road week 18 2024. This time Darnold is favored. Look, Seattle beating the Rams was probably the best regular season game of the 2025 season. It was incredible and who wasn’t thrilled for Darnold? Sure we all were, but the guy throws interceptions almost every week. Most times multiple picks. The Rams win doesn’t look as good after another stunning loss Monday night to the eliminated Falcons. Rams are trending down, the 49ers have been trending up over a 6 game winning streak. 49ers straight-up, under 49.5 points.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 40.5

Loser leaves town? More like loser joins the ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX media carousel. Whoever loses will likely part ways with their head coach. Whomever wins will host the Shakey’s Bowl during wild card weekend, and lose at home. Either way, Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh will likely be looking for new employment. Both are great coaches, deserve another opportunity, and will have success again, but their time in the AFC North is done. Both teams must ponder overhauling their organization top down. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have come to another crossroads. There are plenty of rumors but no reports of Baltimore seriously considering moving on from Jackson. There’s enough smoke to indicate discontent among management and his fellow players. Something has to change, but not until their season ends. It won’t end Sunday night. Baltimore’s defense has enough talent to suppress Pittsburgh’s decrepit offense. Snoop Huntley and another 30 carry effort from Derrick Henry should be enough to roll over an ancient Steeler defense. Don’t be afraid to lay the points. Ravens cover, under 40.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 16, 2025

Ding-dong the witch is dead
Which old witch? The wicked witch
Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead

Finally, the Chiefs are done. The bread line… I mean the penalty line is closed until further notice. No more socialist handouts for Jawaan Taylor. No more Travis Kelce tantrums (although I’ve enjoyed two weeks of humiliation). No more glazing for Patrick Mahomes who can’t throw down field anymore, and essentially became a running quarterback. Of course it’s fun to bag on Kermit, he’s still great and I hope for a full recovery, but for the first time there’s adversity. Perhaps some doubt about how he and the organization bounces back. They are not one offseason away from another dynasty run.

Anyways, who cares about teams out of the playoffs. HA! Who am I kidding? Two of my favorite picks of the week involve non-playoff teams, like a real degenerate! Week 16 has a few loser leaves town showdowns and draft order implications. A Colts loss clinches playoff berths for most of the AFC teams ahead of them. The Giants, Titans, and my Raiders, all 2-12, need to keep losing to retain a top 3 draft choice, possibly the first overall pick. While not a QB heavy draft, these squads need all the help they can get from college prospects. They’ll all have new head coaches as well, including the Raiders who are working to put Sleepy Pete Carroll in the bingo club.

This offseason may be one of the most interesting in years. The Chiefs must rebuild their roster from the inside out. While many excuse their offensive line play with injuries, their performance does not meet the standard of a Super Bowl caliber team. Neither does their defensive line. “Chris Jones has lost a step” is a cruddy excuse. Jones is older sure, but he’s still playing at blue chip level. The rest of the defense needs to step up. Also, the zebras won’t be helping Jawaan and his remaining $27M salary.

Joe Burrow appears interested in greener pastures, or maybe Andrew Luck part deux (hopefully not). The Bengals, briefly, shook their “Bumgels” tag for a couple of seasons, but Mike Brown is still the owner. As a fan of Al Davis’ Raiders and a resident of the greater Dallas area I can tell Cincy fans you’ll never win anything while Mr. Brown owns the franchise.

Regardless of what happens in Baltimore, it’s time to move on from John Harbaugh. I suspect we may be in for a Bloody Monday which will also include the Cardinals, Falcons, Raiders, Browns, and should include the Dolphins and Bengals. I have serious doubts Mike Brown will fire Zac Taylor. The DJ may live to spin a few more records in Miami. Anyways, here’s Wonderwall.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Tennessee Titans O/U 37.5

This one opened at 11.5 before the Mahomes injury. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The 2-12 Titans have more motivation to keep losing to at least reach a top 3 draft choice, despite playing hard each week. QB Cam Ward has started every game this season and playing his ass off. Tennessee’s defense while ranked low by most outlets faces Gardner Minshew, a depleted offensive line, weak running backs, and receivers who wouldn’t start most teams. The defense plays hard and ranks poorly due to their offense. What kind of fight does this Chiefs team have? Not much if you ask me. Say what you will about him, Mahomes kept the offense relevant entirely on his own. Talking heads and blog boys have questioned Mahomes’ leadership, perhaps there’s some smoke, but we’ll find out Sunday how much mediocrity he covered up. I think we’re going to find a black mold infestation. Give me Titans +3 and over 37.5. Man if you took this at 11, walk up to the booth now.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins O/U 47.5

This pick comes from instinct rather than sabermetrics. Sometimes having kinetic intuition serves one better than analytics. For example last week I correctly surmised to bet against Tua in Pittsburgh on a December night. Now Tua is benched, Mike McDaniel still coaching for his job, and rookie Quinn Ewers gets his first start. Ewers is up for this. He starts at home, gets all the first team reps, and faces a Bengals defense dead last in total defense according to most outlets. His scouting report coming out of Texas was mixed. He gets credit for helping Sarkisian turn around the program, going 27-9, 11-1 on the road. In Texas’ first season in the SEC, Ewer’s last college season, he played 14 games, going 11-3, passed for 3,472 yds, 31 TDs, 12 INTs, 65.8% completion rate. Ewers set records with 1st in single-season 300+ yard passing games (6) for Texas, per CFBStats and NCAA data.

So what about the negatives? He’s criticized for being injured regularly and not having a strong enough arm. Well in the past 12 months Ewers has played little meanful football as a benchwarmer for Miami, and arm strength may be one of the most overrated desired traits. There’s consensus Ewers is a developmental QB, and we know arm strength can be developed. Where does Ewer excel? Short and intermediate routes, which require accuracy and precision. He’s had most of a season learning an offense which leans into quick short-intermediate passes to playmakers. The fins are clearly making changes for the future, and the Bengals? Only thing that’s changed is Joe Burrow’s attitude.

“He’s a headcase” as my dad would say. Burrow is justified to be in his feelings. He’s closer to becoming Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer than he is Luka Doncic. He may be checked out; meanwhile, the Bumgals concern themselves with denying per diem, garage sales, limiting Gatorade to the players, saving on podiums, and google the rest of the stories. Mike Brown is a cheap bastard, and the league will be better off when he no longer owns the team. Until then, they’re the Bumgals. Give me Miami +3.5 and over 47.5. Wrote way too much for this poo poo platter game!

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) O/U 48.5

How the hell are the Ravens favored? This is a damn rat line. Something’s wrong with Lamar Jackson. I don’t care that he won last week. The guy was 8-12 passing and still managed to throw a pick to the scoreless Bumgals who are done and checked out. Now he faces a tough Pats team, coming off a loss, who needs to keep winning. Yeah I don’t think so. This one will be short and sweet. Patriots straight up and over 48.5. Now, I will acknowledge the public is all over New England on this one (85%). I don’t give a shit. Pats are 6-0 on the road. I do not believe in this Ravens team. This feels like the game that gets John Harbaugh fired. The Ravens feel overdue for big organization changes.