Woof! Rough 7 days for your buy. Since my last very scrambled, by the seat of my pants, post I have been under the weather, traveled our east for wedding, and came back home to immediately get back to work. My career has reached new peaks of responsibility and pushed my bandwidth professionally and personally wider. I’m learning to manage it all. Feels like things always slip. I want to just hammer this post to keep it going and look forward to better days. There’s only one more wedding, a few work trips, and then finally the holidays for me to slow down and have more time to watch and think about football. Shoot, I almost paid for subscription for VSIN’s platform to better monitor the public betting market so I can watch how the squares and sharps bet. I do truly want to improve my betting knowledge and acumen. To do that though involves more money and time. Browns defense clench the explosive Baltimore offense for as long as possible.
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 41 ½
Cleveland let me down last week, but I’m still buying the Browns to cover this week (and most likely next week). With 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter the Browns only trailed 10 points after scoring a touchdown. Unfortunately the Browns continue to turn the ball over in pu pu platter of turnovers. Pencil QB Joe Flacco in for at least one interception, should be -1.5 INTs every game, and maybe a fumble too. Still, I’m buying Browns covers if you’re selling. Packers have looked dominate through two weeks against a middling Commanders defense and a Lions defense ranked around 10 or 11th in total defense (but haven’t looked it). They now face a Browns defense ranked first in total defense. First in rushing defense and third in passing defense. Take the Packers moneyline but give me Browns covering 7.5 and under 41.5 points. Monitoring public betting via Sports Betting Dime at the start of the week most of the bets and money were for the Browns covering when the line opened at 5.5 points. 59% of the tickets are still on the Browns but the money is split 50/50 24 hours before the game.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5), O/U 44 ½
This is the first sharp lead bet for me in 2025. 64% of the tickets are on the Eagles to cover but 67% of the money is on the Rams. I like the Rams straight up and under 44.5 points. The Eagles are also due for a loss. The won and covered a wacky season opener to the Cowboys which DT Jalen Carter kicked out before the first snap of the game and a long rain delay. Cowboys looked pretty good in that game, who knows what happens if there is no rain delay. I was certain last week the Chiefs would win straight up to avoid going 0-2. The Eagles took care of business in an unsexy but business like manner. I have a newfound respect for QB Jalen Hurts when he says “we won the fucking game” to DT Chris Jones. So many quarterbacks like Bears QB Caleb Williams are more interested in playing hero ball or doing something interesting instead of just playing to win the game. QB Matthew Stafford plays to win too. The Texans defense presented a great defensive challenge, but the Rams won and covered. They played a very frisky Titans team who gave them all they could handle until the Rams pulled away late in the third quarter. The Rams are ready for this challenge too.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5), O/U 45 ½
I kick myself last week for not making the 49ers one of my top 3 picks. Perhaps the news of QB Mac Jones getting the start late in the week prevented me from doing so. I told my football text group I loved Jones getting the start and he rewarded my faith going 26/39, 279 YDs, and 3 TDs on the road! I expect more of the same at home versus a Cardinals team who is 2-0 against the Saints and Panthers. I was traveling last weekend as I wrote in the intro, so I have no idea what was said on the pregame shows, but let’s not forget Jones was the player Head Coach Kyle Shanahan wanted. I expect Jones to maintain the ship while Purdy recovers from turf toe. I’ll continue monitoring the Niners for their success until further notice. The Cards however are a bottom half offense and defense who have beat up on two lottery teams. We’ll learn a lot about both teams, but this is about betting before the outcome occurs. I’m buying the 49ers under Mac Jones until further notice, and I have never bought a Kyler Murray lead squad in the NFL, to Kevin Clark’s SHOCK!!! 49ers covers and over 45.5 point.
Pacers finished the Knicks Saturday night to make only their second NBA Finals appearance in their existence. My dad called the Pacers winning by 20 points, spread was Pacers -4. Siakam winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the team advancing to the Finals had some incredible futures.
It’s been a great story, but the ride ends in Oklahoma City with a gentleman’s sweep. The end can’t come fast enough either. I’m ready for football. I’m not sure how many more podcasts I can stand without listening to Cousin Sal or Shea in Irving lament the Cowboys. Or Bill Simmons exclaiming the Saints are the new 99 Rams.
SGA, Haliburton, or Giannis trade destinations aren’t doing it for me. Neither’s another Pablo Torre “investigation” into Bill Belichick where Pablo denies his interest in their age difference while spiraling into the same depravity as Belichick. No more farewell pods or Youtube homages for Inside The NBA. It’ll be back on ESPN (unless they fuck it up). I just can’t do more of these…
Ok well maybe more pods about Zion’s rape and abuse allegations. The man’s a victim of hubris, pussy, and Popeyes. A combination I can almost understand. I too get high and mighty about my cats and fried chicken.
No! I’m ready for football! And I’m ready to be wrong and hurt again!!! Let’s do some fucking futures baby. I’ve got two teams who’ve been good to me, two new teams I’m falling in like with, and one team that keeps shoving a freshly sharpened Ticonderoga up my ass each year. And yet… I CAN’T QUIT YOU!!!
We are NOT going 8-8 again!!!
Los Angeles Rams, Over 9.5 Wins Rams have been 10-7 two years in a row and this improving roaster gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles all the could handle in the divisional round. The year before the Rams almost beat a red hot Lions squad. Rams get the AFC South this season which is at least three easy wins (Colts, Titans, Jags). I like the Rams to win at least 10 games and make another run all the way to lose in the NFC Championship, which you can get on Draft Kings at +850. Love that value. You can get over 9.5 at around -150.
You’re not you when you’re sacked
Carolina Panthers, Over 6.5 Wins After their week 11 bye the Panthers started showing signs geniune development. Carolina gave the Eagles and Chiefs a hell of a fight, took their rival Buccaneers to OT, and eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs. They finished 5-12, but Bryce Young showed the team and every Ringer employee he was no bust. The draft proved the team has invested its future into Bryce. Outside of their division, the schedule isn’t rosey. Drawing the AFC East won’t be easy with the exception of the Dolphins. Even the Jets with seemingly legitimate head coaching will be a long day. But they do get the Jaguars in the opener. 7 wins for a team that covered 5 of 7 game spreads against several playoff teams after the bye piques my interest.
I’m Vita Vea’s replacement (in two years)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Over 9.5 Wins I admit, the Bucs are a weird fucking team. They were 4-6 going into their bye week and had lost 4 games in a row. Maybe they spent their bye on Isla de Muerta to pick up cursed gold cuz those guys went 6-1, if not for the Cowboys, the rest of the way. They lost to an incredible Commanders team in close fashion who went on to the NFC title game. The prior year also had a 4 game losing streak which was matched by a 4 game winning streak and a hard fought division round loss against the Lions.
The Bucs snagged WR Emeka Egbuka in the draft for the future with veterans Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin nearing the ends of their careers. CBs Benjamin Morris and Jacob Pariah fill needs in an always injured secondary force to call upon the practice squad. Oh! And they signed 6′ 6″ 464 LB undrafted free agent defensive tackle Desmond Watson, the heaviest player in NFL history, destined to replace Vita Vea.
Head Coach Todd Bowles told ESPN’s Jenna Laine “to judge him right now is very early, and we didn’t get him for the tush push — we got him because we really thought he could play.” Bowles continued “right now, we just have to see how long he can stay on the field, andnput him on a program where we think he can make some progress.” Watson still needs to make the roster but he’s slimmed down 27 LBs while in rookie mini-camp. I’m clearly way too invested in his success.
This team has veterans under contract, except Evans who is entering his final year, and bunch of young new players. 10-7 again in a division they’ve won two years straight makes a lot of sense. They’re by far the most stable franchise in the division too. Where things might go off the rails for this team though will be weeks 16 and 18 when the Bucs play their rival Panthers twice in three weeks. Those games will likely decide who wins the NFC South. Until I see someone consistently beat them for the division I’ll stick with the Bucs.
CJ? More like JC!
Houston Texans, Over 9.5 Wins The CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans Texans regime finished it’s first two years losing in the divisional round to the well established Ravens and Super Bowl champion Chiefs… But apparently they’ll have to prove themselves to Mt. Carmel High School coach Diante Lee.
Anyways… I’m feeling pretty good about my Texans PROVING themselves to ole Diante, a man with more football credibility than anyone I’ve ever known, after going 10-7 (and hitting the over) two seasons in a row. Just to appetize even more, you can get the over at +100. They’ll taste the AFC Championship this year (+950). Two years of close losses in the Divisional they’re ready for the next logical progression. They’ve continued to draft well adding WRs Jaylen Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and resigning key contributors to the team.
The strength of schedule for the Texans is middling amongst most evaluators, although I see this schedule in the top third of difficulty. The NFC West is a clunky division with the Rams looking to make another run, an aging but retooling 49ers, and two pretty beatable teams in Seattle and Arizona. Not fun to have to play the Bucs out of conference, Ravens, and everyone in the AFC West, my pick for toughest division. Still, 10 wins getting to play the Colts, Titans, and Jags is likely 5 to 6 wins right there. They should at least split the NFC West. Maybe even split the AFC West. 10 wins should be easy money at +100 with a PROVEN track record.
Jim Harbaugh: “I’m just here so I won’t get fined.”
Las Vegas Raiders, Over 6.5 Wins Maybe this will be the year I won’t thrust another pencil up my anus after another lost Raider season. No, this year does indeed feel different. The hiring of GM John Spytek and Head Coach Pete Carroll states an organizational goal of regaining credibility and respect in this league. New minority owner and Mark Davis whisperer Tom Brady provides stability at the top this team lost after Al Davis just simply got too old. Gruden had the team moving in the right direction before Daniel Snyder allegedly leaked his emails to the New York Times.
Since their Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneer the Raiders have only had two seasons of note. Both of which ended with Derek Carr breaking his fibula and Derek Carr mismanaging the end of game clock versus Cincinnati. I don’t give a rat’s ass what anyone thinks, if Carr just manages the clock correctly Raiders win that game. Cincy went on to lose in the Super Bowl.
This new administration completely fabrises the stench of Antonio Pierce, Josh McDaniels, Carr, and Gru who returned to the FFCA feeling nicey! Spytek spent his first draft truly building a team from both need and value. Admittedly I didn’t love the Jeanty pick at first; however, you combine him with the best quarterback they’ve had since MVP Rich Gannon, incredible skill players lead by Brock Bowers, and an improving line with LT Kolton Miller and C Jackson Powers-Johnson there’s enough talent (finally) to be a serious threat on offense every Sunday.
Funny how Geno Smith hasn’t even taken an in game snap and I’ve already anointed him the best Raiders QB since Gannon. That should tell all you non-Raider and Saint fans what it’s like living in QB mediocrity-hell.
Raiders added WR Jack Bech from TCU in the second round who will immediately contribute as a rookie both inside and out. By seasons end he’ll be the number 2 receiver. The Raiders used their high end picks to accumulate more picks which they used to bluster both sides of the line and the receiver room.
Regaining credibility is the prime objective this season. Raiders shouldn’t be favored in most games but I’m calling a split in the AFC West with all their rivals in the back half of the season (hopefully fucking over the Chiefs in the regular season finale). We also get the Bears, Titans, Browns, Giants, Jags, and Cowboys at home. For some reason we’ve been a thorn in Dallas’s side over the past few years.
There’s a clear road to 7 wins for this squad looking to gain back the honor to which their used to mean something in this league. There’s gonna be an upset win against a playoff team I can’t predict. Mostly, I just don’t want my hemorrhoids popped by lead point again.
If I’m lucky, maybe, just maybe, my blogging career will see the same resurrection from the League to G-League AND back to the League like the Clip’s Nacho Ball! I assumed Kris Dunn had retired or been voluntold of his retirement until a few weeks ago. The man had only one timberwolf claw (he was drafted by the T-Wolves almost a decade ago [this joke failed]) left until Danny Ainge shipped Dunn off to finish assembling the pieces of the Cooper Flag tank puzzle. But here he is! Two games in a row Nacho Ball has slowed down Jamal Murray like the itis from minor league velveeta cheese. Perhaps my writing will lock down some music reviews and hit the occasional popular culture reference. Or maybe just beat Christian Braun’s ass.
I feel bad for only sitting on my ass tonight watching Jokic and Kawhi throw rocks at each other for two hours. My wife is too busy saving lives to text me back. So I’ll keep typing away.
When you’re obese, sometimes you just crave cookies, but not from Crumble. Paying $12 for a cookie is fucking stupid. Have I done it? Sure. Did I do it alone, absolutely not! I’m not trying to eat some art like Francis Dolarhyde. I’m here for the goddamn sugar, butter, and spending $70 on vinyl from Taiwan.
The shipping from Taiwan to Texas was almost as much as the record itself, but well worth the batter for the needle drop. Shout out to Marina who found this collaboration between Hyukoh and Sunset Rollercoaster. She’s now one of my Super Best Friends of music nerds. Instagram’s algorithm on point.
I’m not here to scribe a sophisticated review. I scoped it out on Spotify first but digital doesn’t do the analog justice. You have to pay those shipping fees, even if you have a basic stereo setup like I do, to fully appreciate the collaborative craftsmanship and labor of love in these eight tracks. There’s no linear style or singular theme. “Y” builds on a triumphant late 70’s rock lead with brass backing while “Glue” vibes like an indie jam at Bonnaroo. My favorite though “Aaaannnnteeeeennnaaaaaa” was made for Speaker City. There are no earmuffs for Kris Dunn, Jamal. Happy Dingus Day!
Disaesthetic 