Tag: Joe Flacco

Looking Live at NFL Week 3, 2025

Woof! Rough 7 days for your buy. Since my last very scrambled, by the seat of my pants, post I have been under the weather, traveled our east for wedding, and came back home to immediately get back to work. My career has reached new peaks of responsibility and pushed my bandwidth professionally and personally wider. I’m learning to manage it all. Feels like things always slip. I want to just hammer this post to keep it going and look forward to better days. There’s only one more wedding, a few work trips, and then finally the holidays for me to slow down and have more time to watch and think about football. Shoot, I almost paid for subscription for VSIN’s platform to better monitor the public betting market so I can watch how the squares and sharps bet. I do truly want to improve my betting knowledge and acumen. To do that though involves more money and time. Browns defense clench the explosive Baltimore offense for as long as possible.

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 41 ½

Cleveland let me down last week, but I’m still buying the Browns to cover this week (and most likely next week). With 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter the Browns only trailed 10 points after scoring a touchdown. Unfortunately the Browns continue to turn the ball over in pu pu platter of turnovers. Pencil QB Joe Flacco in for at least one interception, should be -1.5 INTs every game, and maybe a fumble too. Still, I’m buying Browns covers if you’re selling. Packers have looked dominate through two weeks against a middling Commanders defense and a Lions defense ranked around 10 or 11th in total defense (but haven’t looked it). They now face a Browns defense ranked first in total defense. First in rushing defense and third in passing defense. Take the Packers moneyline but give me Browns covering 7.5 and under 41.5 points. Monitoring public betting via Sports Betting Dime at the start of the week most of the bets and money were for the Browns covering when the line opened at 5.5 points. 59% of the tickets are still on the Browns but the money is split 50/50 24 hours before the game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5), O/U 44 ½

This is the first sharp lead bet for me in 2025. 64% of the tickets are on the Eagles to cover but 67% of the money is on the Rams. I like the Rams straight up and under 44.5 points. The Eagles are also due for a loss. The won and covered a wacky season opener to the Cowboys which DT Jalen Carter kicked out before the first snap of the game and a long rain delay. Cowboys looked pretty good in that game, who knows what happens if there is no rain delay. I was certain last week the Chiefs would win straight up to avoid going 0-2. The Eagles took care of business in an unsexy but business like manner. I have a newfound respect for QB Jalen Hurts when he says “we won the fucking game” to DT Chris Jones. So many quarterbacks like Bears QB Caleb Williams are more interested in playing hero ball or doing something interesting instead of just playing to win the game. QB Matthew Stafford plays to win too. The Texans defense presented a great defensive challenge, but the Rams won and covered. They played a very frisky Titans team who gave them all they could handle until the Rams pulled away late in the third quarter. The Rams are ready for this challenge too.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5), O/U 45 ½

I kick myself last week for not making the 49ers one of my top 3 picks. Perhaps the news of QB Mac Jones getting the start late in the week prevented me from doing so. I told my football text group I loved Jones getting the start and he rewarded my faith going 26/39, 279 YDs, and 3 TDs on the road! I expect more of the same at home versus a Cardinals team who is 2-0 against the Saints and Panthers. I was traveling last weekend as I wrote in the intro, so I have no idea what was said on the pregame shows, but let’s not forget Jones was the player Head Coach Kyle Shanahan wanted. I expect Jones to maintain the ship while Purdy recovers from turf toe. I’ll continue monitoring the Niners for their success until further notice. The Cards however are a bottom half offense and defense who have beat up on two lottery teams. We’ll learn a lot about both teams, but this is about betting before the outcome occurs. I’m buying the 49ers under Mac Jones until further notice, and I have never bought a Kyler Murray lead squad in the NFL, to Kevin Clark’s SHOCK!!! 49ers covers and over 45.5 point.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Adrian Curiel

Looking Live at NFL Week 2, 2025

The first week of NFL action is in the books! Last week I hit 2/3 of my favorite spreads and 2/3 on my over/under picks. Overall I was 8-8 against the spread (ats) and only hit 7/16 on the over/unders. I definitely care most about my ats record with a goal of 55% ats for the season. We certainly learned the Bills and Packers may have dominate regular season. Currently the Bills are favored in every regular season game so far. The Packer may be favored in all but 1 or 2 games for the rest of the regular season. We also learned it may be time to short the Dolphins and Giants for the rest of the year. Sure Giants LT Andrew Thomas being out certainly hurt the team, but he’s not helping the Giants offense enough to compete with the Commanders, Eagles, or Cowboys. Thomas is no stranger to injury and it’s unclear when he will return from said injury.

I had several notes and ideas of what we learned from week 1 and a few awards. Browns QB Joe Flacco certainly won the Joe Harris Award for “this guy can do some things” still in this league. Browns should have never let him walk in 2024. But I’m tired and it’s nearly midnight. Here are my top 3 favorite for week 2.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5), O/U 42 ½

“Short everything that man has touched” is what Mark Baum in The Big Short would say if the movie was about Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. “Nerd Boy” as ESPN’s Rex Ryan affectionately calls him leads the pack at -200 for first NFL head coach fired, per Covers. The Colts lead 30-0 before Miami scored half way through the 4th quarter in junk time. Sure, give new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo credit for building a competent scheme and strategy after years of Gus Bradley. If Nerd Boy is such an offensive guru why could he not adjust or even foresee such an onslaught from the Colts in all phases? QB Daniel Jones craved up Miami’s defense with relative ease. The Colts dominated the lines of scrimmage throughout the game. Perhaps I’m putting too much weight on McDaniel and not criticizing roster construction more; however, this team is a reflection of McDaniel’s offensive philosophy and ideas of how he wants to attack opponents.

Rex Ryan simply said the obvious, whether people want to hear it or not. The Miami Dolphins are soft, a story reported in joint practices several times, and McDaniel seems visibly ill-equipped and incompetent as far as leading football players. The guy can be an incredible coordinator but he’s not a legitimate head coach right now. New Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel clearly outclasses McDaniel overseeing a team in all three phases of the game. The Patriots defensive line is strong enough to pressure Tua. Vrabel just needs to watch the Colts tape for simple plan of attack. Patriots straight-up (SU) under 42.5 points. This game would likely not be on anyone’s multiview screen, but buy as many Miami Credit Default Swaps as possible.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), O/U 44 ½

As I predicted last week the Browns are gonna be big dogs often in the first 4 games of the season, and I’m buying! From 2019 Baltimore has only covered 12 or more points in 3 games against the Browns, one of which was in week 18 last year when the Browns were dying to end the season. Flacco looked solid back with the Browns and we’ll likely get the best out of Flacco in the first 4 weeks of the season. Oddly enough Flacco has never played the Raven as a Brown, and only played his former team as a Jet in 2022. He’s yet to have revenge against the Ravens. I’ll take the Ravens to win the game as they can’t attempt fate again like last year starting 0-2. Only thing that worries me is only 17% of the public betting money is on the Browns to cover. While 83% of the bets are on the Browns to cover but most of the money is on the Ravens. Smells like sharp money, but they’re wrong. The Ravens have rarely trucened the Brown over the past 5 season, and are barely over .500 ats versus the Browns. Give me the Browns getting 11.5 and under 44.5 points.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 46 ½

The last time the Chiefs went 0-2 was in 2014. The team went 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The Chiefs middled for a few seasons until they drafted QB Patrick Mahomes in 2017. This is only the third time in his career Mahomes has been a home dog with a 1-1 record. The “home” game he won was in Germany. The other was in Kansas City against Buffalo, and the Bills covered. If you’re picking Philly to cover or even taking the Philly moneyline (-108), you’re essentially betting the Chiefs will likely miss the playoffs. Only 35 teams have made the playoffs since 1990 after starting 0-2. Granted, the Ravens, Broncos, and Rams all made the playoffs last year after starting 0-2; however, 288 teams since 1990 have started 0-2 and only 35 (12.15%) of those teams made the playoffs.

I’m not buying the Chiefs going 0-2. Chiefs SU and over 46.5 points. Grab that +105 moneyline too. While I’m down on the Chiefs (I picked the Chargers straight up) I have too much respect for this team, especially Mahomes who may be the greatest underdog in all of sports. He’s 10-3 SU as an underdog regular and post-season. The Eagles already won a sketchy game against the Cowboys. Chiefs need this one more. Being home in Kansas City should help too. Per Sports Betting Dime 65% of the bets and 83% of the money is going to Philly. Hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes going 0-2 for the first time while still in his prime with at least an average to above average roster. Hell of a Monday morning on the talk shows if they go 0-2.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by César Hernández