5 Overs for 2025

Pacers finished the Knicks Saturday night to make only their second NBA Finals appearance in their existence. My dad called the Pacers winning by 20 points, spread was Pacers -4. Siakam winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the team advancing to the Finals had some incredible futures.

It’s been a great story, but the ride ends in Oklahoma City with a gentleman’s sweep. The end can’t come fast enough either. I’m ready for football. I’m not sure how many more podcasts I can stand without listening to Cousin Sal or Shea in Irving lament the Cowboys. Or Bill Simmons exclaiming the Saints are the new 99 Rams.

SGA, Haliburton, or Giannis trade destinations aren’t doing it for me. Neither’s another Pablo Torre “investigation” into Bill Belichick where Pablo denies his interest in their age difference while spiraling into the same depravity as Belichick. No more farewell pods or Youtube homages for Inside The NBA. It’ll be back on ESPN (unless they fuck it up). I just can’t do more of these…

Ok well maybe more pods about Zion’s rape and abuse allegations. The man’s a victim of hubris, pussy, and Popeyes. A combination I can almost understand. I too get high and mighty about my cats and fried chicken.

No! I’m ready for football! And I’m ready to be wrong and hurt again!!! Let’s do some fucking futures baby. I’ve got two teams who’ve been good to me, two new teams I’m falling in like with, and one team that keeps shoving a freshly sharpened Ticonderoga up my ass each year. And yet… I CAN’T QUIT YOU!!!

We are NOT going 8-8 again!!!

Los Angeles Rams, Over 9.5 Wins
Rams have been 10-7 two years in a row and this improving roaster gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles all the could handle in the divisional round. The year before the Rams almost beat a red hot Lions squad. Rams get the AFC South this season which is at least three easy wins (Colts, Titans, Jags). I like the Rams to win at least 10 games and make another run all the way to lose in the NFC Championship, which you can get on Draft Kings at +850. Love that value. You can get over 9.5 at around -150.

You’re not you when you’re sacked

Carolina Panthers, Over 6.5 Wins
After their week 11 bye the Panthers started showing signs geniune development. Carolina gave the Eagles and Chiefs a hell of a fight, took their rival Buccaneers to OT, and eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs. They finished 5-12, but Bryce Young showed the team and every Ringer employee he was no bust. The draft proved the team has invested its future into Bryce. Outside of their division, the schedule isn’t rosey. Drawing the AFC East won’t be easy with the exception of the Dolphins. Even the Jets with seemingly legitimate head coaching will be a long day. But they do get the Jaguars in the opener. 7 wins for a team that covered 5 of 7 game spreads against several playoff teams after the bye piques my interest.

I’m Vita Vea’s replacement (in two years)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Over 9.5 Wins
I admit, the Bucs are a weird fucking team. They were 4-6 going into their bye week and had lost 4 games in a row. Maybe they spent their bye on Isla de Muerta to pick up cursed gold cuz those guys went 6-1, if not for the Cowboys, the rest of the way. They lost to an incredible Commanders team in close fashion who went on to the NFC title game. The prior year also had a 4 game losing streak which was matched by a 4 game winning streak and a hard fought division round loss against the Lions.

The Bucs snagged WR Emeka Egbuka in the draft for the future with veterans Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin nearing the ends of their careers. CBs Benjamin Morris and Jacob Pariah fill needs in an always injured secondary force to call upon the practice squad. Oh! And they signed 6′ 6″ 464 LB undrafted free agent defensive tackle Desmond Watson, the heaviest player in NFL history, destined to replace Vita Vea.

Head Coach Todd Bowles told ESPN’s Jenna Laine “to judge him right now is very early, and we didn’t get him for the tush push — we got him because we really thought he could play.” Bowles continued “right now, we just have to see how long he can stay on the field, andnput him on a program where we think he can make some progress.” Watson still needs to make the roster but he’s slimmed down 27 LBs while in rookie mini-camp. I’m clearly way too invested in his success.

This team has veterans under contract, except Evans who is entering his final year, and bunch of young new players. 10-7 again in a division they’ve won two years straight makes a lot of sense. They’re by far the most stable franchise in the division too. Where things might go off the rails for this team though will be weeks 16 and 18 when the Bucs play their rival Panthers twice in three weeks. Those games will likely decide who wins the NFC South. Until I see someone consistently beat them for the division I’ll stick with the Bucs.

CJ? More like JC!

Houston Texans, Over 9.5 Wins
The CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans Texans regime finished it’s first two years losing in the divisional round to the well established Ravens and Super Bowl champion Chiefs… But apparently they’ll have to prove themselves to Mt. Carmel High School coach Diante Lee.

Anyways… I’m feeling pretty good about my Texans PROVING themselves to ole Diante, a man with more football credibility than anyone I’ve ever known, after going 10-7 (and hitting the over) two seasons in a row. Just to appetize even more, you can get the over at +100. They’ll taste the AFC Championship this year (+950). Two years of close losses in the Divisional they’re ready for the next logical progression. They’ve continued to draft well adding WRs Jaylen Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and resigning key contributors to the team.

The strength of schedule for the Texans is middling amongst most evaluators, although I see this schedule in the top third of difficulty. The NFC West is a clunky division with the Rams looking to make another run, an aging but retooling 49ers, and two pretty beatable teams in Seattle and Arizona. Not fun to have to play the Bucs out of conference, Ravens, and everyone in the AFC West, my pick for toughest division. Still, 10 wins getting to play the Colts, Titans, and Jags is likely 5 to 6 wins right there. They should at least split the NFC West. Maybe even split the AFC West. 10 wins should be easy money at +100 with a PROVEN track record.

Jim Harbaugh: “I’m just here so I won’t get fined.”

Las Vegas Raiders, Over 6.5 Wins
Maybe this will be the year I won’t thrust another pencil up my anus after another lost Raider season. No, this year does indeed feel different. The hiring of GM John Spytek and Head Coach Pete Carroll states an organizational goal of regaining credibility and respect in this league. New minority owner and Mark Davis whisperer Tom Brady provides stability at the top this team lost after Al Davis just simply got too old. Gruden had the team moving in the right direction before Daniel Snyder allegedly leaked his emails to the New York Times.

Since their Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneer the Raiders have only had two seasons of note. Both of which ended with Derek Carr breaking his fibula and Derek Carr mismanaging the end of game clock versus Cincinnati. I don’t give a rat’s ass what anyone thinks, if Carr just manages the clock correctly Raiders win that game. Cincy went on to lose in the Super Bowl.

This new administration completely fabrises the stench of Antonio Pierce, Josh McDaniels, Carr, and Gru who returned to the FFCA feeling nicey! Spytek spent his first draft truly building a team from both need and value. Admittedly I didn’t love the Jeanty pick at first; however, you combine him with the best quarterback they’ve had since MVP Rich Gannon, incredible skill players lead by Brock Bowers, and an improving line with LT Kolton Miller and C Jackson Powers-Johnson there’s enough talent (finally) to be a serious threat on offense every Sunday.

Funny how Geno Smith hasn’t even taken an in game snap and I’ve already anointed him the best Raiders QB since Gannon. That should tell all you non-Raider and Saint fans what it’s like living in QB mediocrity-hell.

Raiders added WR Jack Bech from TCU in the second round who will immediately contribute as a rookie both inside and out. By seasons end he’ll be the number 2 receiver. The Raiders used their high end picks to accumulate more picks which they used to bluster both sides of the line and the receiver room.

Regaining credibility is the prime objective this season. Raiders shouldn’t be favored in most games but I’m calling a split in the AFC West with all their rivals in the back half of the season (hopefully fucking over the Chiefs in the regular season finale). We also get the Bears, Titans, Browns, Giants, Jags, and Cowboys at home. For some reason we’ve been a thorn in Dallas’s side over the past few years.

There’s a clear road to 7 wins for this squad looking to gain back the honor to which their used to mean something in this league. There’s gonna be an upset win against a playoff team I can’t predict. Mostly, I just don’t want my hemorrhoids popped by lead point again.

Win Total Data: Vegas Insider

The Malzahn Special

Sorry Andrew but your ducks blew it. The Mallards started hot with two quick touchdowns but struggled once Auburn’s defense caught its breath and Oregon ran out of plays for it’s limited receiving core. Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn seemed determined to serve the ducks his read option meatball special featuring true freshman, and perfectly named dixy quarterback, Bo Nix, who sprinkled in two interceptions and 42% passer rating for good measure. Despite their depleted forces, Oregon had the ingredients for an easy win until old habits came to Jerry’s World to roost.

Dropped passes, one in the end zone, and bad penalties (from the fucking punter) weren’t even the worst of it. Two uncalled for timeouts exposed Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal had no situational awareness nor plan for us back-up QB. The whole stadium knew you were gonna run the damn ball. Perfect opportunity for a play action pass but nah let’s be predictable. Can’t wait for the NFL season to start. Sure you still have your Jason Garrett’s in the pros but at least there’s some sophistication in their offense and defense.

Anyways, I digress. Auburn in defiance of its inept coaching found a victory through unrelenting defense and a great last drive by Nix. Let’s not start ranting and raving “Bo Knows Comebacks.” It was one game. He stared down his receiver for the last touchdown and played like shit for three quarters. Nix could have easily been the talk of disappointment in college football, but he won his first game while covering the spread. Tip of the cap. Congratulations to my roommate Amelia and the War Eagle faithful.

Gus

The spelling of Bo’s name turned into a debate at our party with some advocating for B-e-a-u versus B-o. If you’re born and raised a War Eagle fan it’s Bo, end of discussion. Unfortunately for Andrew and Puddles the game left them and Ducks nation disappointed once again. Will this be another wasted season for Oregon QB Justin Herbert? The shadow of Chip Kelly looms. I share in Andrew’s pain with my Raiders heading into what feels like a catastrophic season, courtesy of Hard Knocks. It’s officially football season.

Before the Auburn game, the Texans traded Jadeveon Clowney to the Seahawks for a third rounder, essentially bailing Seattle out of the void left by Frank Clark. Then Miami fleeced them for two first rounders, a second, and two throw-away players in exchange for Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills, and a fourth rounder. Ryan Grigson must have Vince McMahoned in his chair. Bruce Allen frothing with envy in Washington. Even in retirement Andrew Luck owns the Texans. Kansas also took advantage dealing Carlos Hyde to Houston which opened their roaster for Shady McCoy.

Nothing excites me more for the season to officially start than awful management of a professional football team. That’s what being a fan is all about. False hope your team becomes a contender, but they won’t. Calling plays from the La-Z-Boy like you’re Belichick (you ain’t). Thinking you know better than the jerk running the team which you don’t, with the exception of the Texans. They gave up more for their offensive needs than the Bears and Browns gave up for Odell Beckham Jr and Khail Mack. Anyone could use those precedents to bargain a better deal, but what do I know? I’m just an anthropologist.

Happy Labor Day!