Tag: football

Looking Live at NFL Thursday Night, Week 4

Summer is the busiest time of year for me professionally. My responsibilities as Project Manager varies in scope and in phases of that scope, but in the warm months I try to complete as many construction projects as possible. So… I just ran out or lacked the energy to write out my week 3 picks for the NFL spreads. My self esteem aches, just a bit, when I miss write out my weekly picks. Feels like failure. No one cares so it’s only a personal failure to me, but I detest missing a mandate I made for myself.

Anyways… My professional life has bled into my personal time, but the stress of deadlines and demands have started to calmed. I know I can write this post for Thursday Night Football in peace. I “plan” to make my picks for Sunday’s slate this weekend. I wish I had more to say other than I’m actually glad I made zero picks for week 3. Most teams who were projected to cover (by so called experts) failed harder than my own personal failure. I expect more of the same this week, but after week 5 we’ll know if teams like Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, and others have the coaches, players, and organizational know how to make a deep run in January and beyond.

More on that after next week… We go to East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Thursday Night, Cowboys @ Giants: Giants +6, Under 45.5

Through 3 weeks of football, spreads of 6 or more have been covered 13 times already. Feels like a lot. Scoring and passing is down league wide. Run scoring is up significantly. Dallas doesn’t deserve 6 points on the road with their performance over the last two weeks. Do I feel confident in the Giants? Not really; however, Danny Dimes has connected with rookie stud Malik Naybers for 3 touchdowns over the last two weeks. The Giants feel like they’re on an upswing while Dallas sputters out of control. I wouldn’t touch the moneyline for either team here, and yes last year Dallas embarrassed the Giants winning by 32 points or more. But that was last year. This Dallas team is less talented, hasn’t found itself on defense, and can’t run the ball. Everything is on Dak Prescott and he’s not talented enough to carry the team as they figure themselves out in season. 6 is too many points. Giants cover and 45.5 points is too many if this season has taught me anything thus far.

Photo: Izaac Crayton

All spread from BetNow.eu

Looking Live at NFL Week 2, 2024

It’s been a hell of a long week… My work has burned me out so let’s just get to the goods:

Chris Berman Primetime Block
  1. Sunday, Bucs @ Lions: Bucs +7.5, Under 51.5
    • Reading the injury reports, I understand the line moving up a point to a point and half, but I don’t care. I like this Bucs team for the season, and they exceeded my expectations last week. I expect the Lions to win at home, but not by more than 7 points. No sir. Both teams at their core are mostly the same and sured up their rosters over the offseason. Through 3 quarters in the divisional round last post-season the Bucs were even with the Lions. In the 4th quarter the Lions pulled ahead but the Bucs were driving down to try to even the score. Mayfield turned it over but that game was incredibly competitive. I will be expecting more of the same this Sunday.
  2. Sunday, Bengals @ Chiefs: Bengals +6, Under 48
    • This may be the trickiest spread of the week. When Mahomes is favored by 3 or less he covers, 4 or more the dog catches him. Thanks Mike! But the Bengals were a mess last week, and historically “start slow” the first 4 weeks of the season. I have to expect a better outing from the Bengals this week, even if they lose. Winning by more than a touchdown is unlikely if the Bengals play their game.
B-Dubs Express (The Watchables)
  1. Sunday, Colts @ Packers: Colts -2.5, Over 40.5
    • This is a once in a lifetime opportunity… Don’t get Jedi mind tricked. This is most likely the last time have the good fortune to beat against Malik Willis. That’s it. That’s my analysis. Malik Willis is starting. Don’t over think it. Also Richardson is gonna have a day. I can feel it.
  2. Sunday, 49ers @ Vikings: 49ers -4.5, Over 46
    • I’m soooooo tempted to pick the Vikings to cover, especially at home, but the 49ers know Sam Darnold well. Kyle Shanahan’s program keeps rolling like a Terminator. They didn’t skip a beat without their McCaffrey. I expect more of the same this week.
  3. Sunday, Rams @ Card: Rams PK, Over 47.5
    • This should be a whole lot of fun! Rams will win. I realize they have a lot of injuries but this is a program I trust. The Cards covered last week (barely) but I can’t stand Kyler and I don’t believe in him.
Phil Simms Bland Bananas (Barely Watchable)
  1. Sunday, Saints @ Cowboys: Cowboys -6, Under 46.5
    • Half the league can probably put 40 on the Panthers. I doubt Derek Carr and gang can put up more than 30 on the Cowboys on the road. No, I think they come back to earth and the Cowboy go another weak feasting on subpar organizations.
  2. Sunday, Browns @ Jags: Jags -3, Under 41
    • I don’t trust the Jags, but this is a pick against the Deshaun Watson and a Browns defense that’s not been same on the road under Jim Schwartz. Sliding doors, again, as I wrote for Thursday Night, Jags were just a few yards short of putting the Fins away last week. Now they are home when it’s probably the hottest and most humid during the day. I expect a bounce back for the Jags by more than 3 points.
  3. Sunday, Jets @ Titans: Titans +3.5, Under 41
    • Ah shit… Here we go again… Titans should’ve had it last week. Aaron Rodgers ain’t no rookie, but the Jets offensive and defensive lines are still quite questionable. Their depth not as great as they allude to the media. Rob Saleh will lose his job this year, probably when the season ends. Jets fans are in for a rough one. I will say if the Titans fail to cover again I’m out on them, but cheese was pretty good last week.
Bridge to Nowhere
  1. Sunday, Chargers @ Panthers: Chargers -5, Over 38.5
    • The Panthers are again the worst team in the NFL. Bryce Young is on track to get benched this season. I expect the Chargers to smoke the Panthers by more than a touchdown.
  2. Sunday, Seahawks @ Pats: Seahawks -3, Under 38
    • Patriots fall back to earth this week and Seattle take care of business on the road. I’m sure the Pats will play hard and keep it close for a while, but Seattle just has more talent and seem far more prepared. One area of concern though, Seattle’s offensive line is weak. This is the one area the Pats can exploit.
  3. Sunday Night, Bears @ Texans: Texans -6.5, Under 45
    • You know how I feel about my Texans and the Titans handed the Bears a W last week. This one should be on BLOW OUT alert. You thought Tennessee was fast last week Caleb? Get ready for the Ryans defense.
Montezuma’s Revenge
  1. Sunday, Raiders @ Ravens: Ravens -9, Under 41.5
    • Yeah… My team stinks, there are better days in the next few weeks but this offense is a mess. Luke Getsy will coach for University of America Samoa in two years. The Ravens cannot afford to go 0-2 and have their shit together more than my dumb team which wouldn’t go for it on 4th down on inside enemy territory. No we are not worth of 9 points to this team.
  2. Sunday, Giants @ Condoms: Condoms -1, Under 43
    • These may be two of the worst 5 teams in the NFL. Perhaps the significance here may lie in potential draft order in 2025. The Condoms have the worst defense and protection (pregnable) in the NFL, at least that I saw last week. The Giants overall may be one of the worst 3 teams in the NFL right now. This feels like one of those slap fighting matches I saw at the Diegueno Middle School library between two nerds who disagreed over a Yu-Gi-Oh match. At least the Condoms have an offense that should improve from week 1.
  3. Sunday, Steelers @ Donkeys: Steelers -2.5, Under 36.5
    • Yeah this might be the most physical, smash mouth, ugly game of the week. Not a nexus of unwatchableness like the Condoms and Giants, but ugly. Donkeys being dogs at home is rough, but both defenses are tough. I expect a similar type scoring game the Steelers played last week. If Bo Nix thought the Seahawks were tough get ready for Mike Tomlin, TJ Watt, and the Steelers curtain of brutality. Nix will have better days but this will be hard game for him. I don’t expect much from Fields either but enough to put up field goals.
  4. Monday Night, Falcons @ Eagles: Eagles -6.5, Under 47.5
    • This will be a route of the Falcons. They let the Steelers put up 18 points with Justin Fields… This Eagles team is looking forward to giving their home opener a smashing rosing of the Falcan’ts.

Photo: Dave Adamson

All spread from BetNow.eu

Looking Live at NFL Week 1, 2024

The NFL put the word out there on Thursday and Friday, “we back up.” Yeah I’m watching The Wire, again, question is why ain’t you? Bless Baltimore. Sorry for your loss. Still got a lot to prove Lamar and team, but I know their squad will see the Chiefs down the road.

Can’t say I’m shocked by the performance Thursday night by the second son of a zebra Shawn Hochuli. I did, however, disappoint my dad when I finally told him last night I won’t be continuing The Wheelhouse Podcast this year. I’ve intentionally avoided this admission for a long time publicly and privately. This is hard to admit because it feels like failure.

Part of me has to admit the work of editing and scheduling the podcast with my partner Andrew was agonizing, but reality is my career and personal life made ending the podcast (for now) necessary. Andrew already knows this, but I’m so grateful for his time doing these podcast with me. I made this decision because of travel for work now on top of visiting Thailand this year makes consistent podcasting unrealistic. Still, none of this changes my love of the sport. I spam my father and Andrew in our group chat with my shitty takes almost everyday.

Finally, football sundays are back! In lieu of a podcast I will endeavor to give you, as I have for three years, my picks on each game each week. I’ll give you my three favorites too. I love this shit, and you know I mean what I say.

Chris Berman Primetime Block
  1. Sunday, Texans @ Colts: Texans -2.5, Over 48.5
    • I’m biased and unabashed about my love for the Texans. I don’t care if the public puts too much money on them. I don’t care that year two should be a regression. Both the Colts and Texans had a nice offseason improving their teams. Big difference between them? Anthony Richardson has started 17 games since high school and 501 in-game drop backs since the start of the 2021 season. Yeah let that sink in… I know this logic will befuddle the great mind of one Andrew Murray but what proof is there Richardson is any good? To piss off my man here some more Richardson is just the next edition of the Trey Lance legacy. CJ Stroud on the other hand is the best rookie I’ve ever seen. He turned a joke of a franchise into one that seems the most likely to someday dethrone the Chiefs. The Texans are fixin to become the next dynasty, if they don’t get too ahead of themselves. This will be one of the most important games week one that may down the road decide who wins the division. Take. Care. Of. Your. Business.
  2. Sunday Night, Rams @ Lions: Rams +4, Under 52 (Favorite #2)
    • Who doesn’t love an epic wild card rematch? I expect the Lions to win at home but not by more than a field goal. Last time came down to the wire and both teams are primed to make another run for the crown. Expect more of the same from January. Also, McVay as a dog?! Come on now!
  3. Monday Night, Jets @ 49ers: 49ers -4.5, over 43.5
    • Too much money coming in on the Jets, who until further notice are still the Yets, and 49ers have the organizational advantage in every conceivable way over the Yets. Yeah, the 49ers had too much drama this off-season but everyone is basically back. Let me see the Yets actually block a real defense before I start calling them the Jets.
B-Dubs Express (The Watchables)
  1. Sunday, Jags @ Fins: Jags +3.5, Over 49 (Favorite of the Week)
    • This is my first favorite of the year. Love the over! I think the Fins regress overall this year and Jags exceed expectations. Usually Miami getting teams at home in September is a huge advantage, and usually a W, but not against a fellow Floridian squad. The Fins have several questionable players suiting up tomorrow while the Jags start fairly healthy. Defensively the Fins will see the most regression losing Wilkins to my Raiders and Fanny Pack to the Eagles.
  2. Sunday, Titans @ Bears: Titans +3.5, Under 44.5
    • This is the most puzzling spread of the week for me. Bears are favored but the money is coming in on the Titans 60/40. It’s hard to imagine the Titans improving without Mike Vrabel, but week 1 is one of the best times to surprise an opponent. What makes this tricky is too much money is coming in on the Titans yet the Bears are overhyped in every possible way. Covering 3.5 seems difficult even against supposedly inferior talent. I’ll take the points here but I’m extremely uneasy here, which should make for a good game.
  3. Sunday, Raiders @ Chargers: Raiders +3, Over 40
    • Oh yeah, hell of a way to start the 2024 season for me. This game never disappoints. I know the Chargers want this one bad after that 63 ass whoopin! This will be a brass knuckle fight. Harbaugh and Pierce are both cut from the same cloth. The guys go to mat covered with blood. This lends itself to a close game. Raiders lose Koonce in this rematch which troubles me. Still, Chargers have their hands full with Wilkins and Crosby. I’m looking to see if Tyree Wilson can make good on his development. Admittedly I’m curious to see the Harbaugh brand of Chargers football.
  4. Sunday, Broncos @ Seahawks: Seahawks -6, Over 41
    • I’m high on the Seahawks this season. It’s pretty simple: Mike McDonald is our latest example of the New Coach Theory and rookie DT Byron Murphy is a 3 technique who somehow slipped to 16 in the draft. Almost every team needs a Murphy yet chumps like the Falcons passed him up. Wonder why they’re always disappointing… Anyways, I expect the Broncos to improve with Nix under center and Payton having the team he REALLY wants, but I like the fact most of the money is going to them and Seahawks are ready to surprise the rest of the league and exede all expectations.
Phil Simms Bland Bananas (Barely Watchable)
  1. Sunday, Vikings @ Giants: Vikings -1, Under 41
  2. Sunday, Pats @ Bengals: Pats + 7.5, Under 41
    • This one makes me frisky too. You can get the Pats +8 some places. Bengals historically have started seasons slow since the arrival of Joe Burrow. Nothing wrong with it. We’ll see’em in the playoffs if Joe stays healthy, but like the Brady and Belichick Patriots the first quarter of the season is usually a pre-season for them. 7.5 to 8 points feels like a lot and the squares are slamming the Bengals too much for my taste.
  3. Sunday, Condoms @ Bucs: Buc -3.5, Under 42.5 (Favorite #3)
    • I know everyone is hyped for Trojan’s new line of Condoms… I mean everyone is stoked for the new look Commanders. Major Tuddy in da house!!!!! Still, the Bucs have Super Bowl pedigree defensively, there is continuity with the whole squad, they beat the Eagles in the playoffs and took it to the Lions, and switching Josh Harris for Daniel Synder doesn’t quench the stench of Tuddy’s pig pen. Also, ask 76er fans about the Josh Harris era…
Bridge to Nowhere
  1. Sunday, Steelers @ Falcons: Falcons -3.5, Under 41.5
  2. Sunday, Cards @ Bills: Bills -6.5, Over 47
    • If you know me, my distaste for Kyler Murray is no secret. Take my opinion as extremely biased but nothing has changed about Kyler Murray except he was appeased contractually and he has achieved nothing in his NFL career other than hype from the fellatio experts over at ESPN, The Ringer, Twitter, you know the places. I’ll begrudgingly give the touchdown to the Bills who I don’t believe in much as a serious contender with their head coach likely on the hot seat, $60 million of dead money, and a defense in tathers. Still, fuck the Cards and the roadrunner.
  3. Sunday, Cowboys @ Browns: Browns 2.5, Under 41
    • Don’t love either team. Neither is a serious contender. Too much money is going to the Cowboys, which is not unusual. Question is how much of it is Cowboy fans and how much is sharp money. Either way I love the Browns at home. On the road is another story. Can’t wait for Shea in Irving to lose his mind on Monday.
Montezuma’s Special
  1. Sunday, Panthers @ Saints, Panthers +4, Over 41.5
    • Per the Action Network, the money coming in on both teams is pretty even. I’m feeling frisky and taking the cheese on the Panthers. 4 points seems nice for a team with the new coach theory potentially in effect. Last year the Panthers may as well have had Urban Meyer at head coach. The malpractice with coaching alone is enough to make the team with new blood more competent in 2024. The Saints are still paying for my old problem, Derek Carr. They seem like Southwest Airlines these days. Massive debts, little profit. A hostile takeover might be on the horizon…

Photo by Daniel Álvasd