Tag: espn

Looking Live at NFL Week 2, 2025

The first week of NFL action is in the books! Last week I hit 2/3 of my favorite spreads and 2/3 on my over/under picks. Overall I was 8-8 against the spread (ats) and only hit 7/16 on the over/unders. I definitely care most about my ats record with a goal of 55% ats for the season. We certainly learned the Bills and Packers may have dominate regular season. Currently the Bills are favored in every regular season game so far. The Packer may be favored in all but 1 or 2 games for the rest of the regular season. We also learned it may be time to short the Dolphins and Giants for the rest of the year. Sure Giants LT Andrew Thomas being out certainly hurt the team, but he’s not helping the Giants offense enough to compete with the Commanders, Eagles, or Cowboys. Thomas is no stranger to injury and it’s unclear when he will return from said injury.

I had several notes and ideas of what we learned from week 1 and a few awards. Browns QB Joe Flacco certainly won the Joe Harris Award for “this guy can do some things” still in this league. Browns should have never let him walk in 2024. But I’m tired and it’s nearly midnight. Here are my top 3 favorite for week 2.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5), O/U 42 ½

“Short everything that man has touched” is what Mark Baum in The Big Short would say if the movie was about Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. “Nerd Boy” as ESPN’s Rex Ryan affectionately calls him leads the pack at -200 for first NFL head coach fired, per Covers. The Colts lead 30-0 before Miami scored half way through the 4th quarter in junk time. Sure, give new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo credit for building a competent scheme and strategy after years of Gus Bradley. If Nerd Boy is such an offensive guru why could he not adjust or even foresee such an onslaught from the Colts in all phases? QB Daniel Jones craved up Miami’s defense with relative ease. The Colts dominated the lines of scrimmage throughout the game. Perhaps I’m putting too much weight on McDaniel and not criticizing roster construction more; however, this team is a reflection of McDaniel’s offensive philosophy and ideas of how he wants to attack opponents.

Rex Ryan simply said the obvious, whether people want to hear it or not. The Miami Dolphins are soft, a story reported in joint practices several times, and McDaniel seems visibly ill-equipped and incompetent as far as leading football players. The guy can be an incredible coordinator but he’s not a legitimate head coach right now. New Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel clearly outclasses McDaniel overseeing a team in all three phases of the game. The Patriots defensive line is strong enough to pressure Tua. Vrabel just needs to watch the Colts tape for simple plan of attack. Patriots straight-up (SU) under 42.5 points. This game would likely not be on anyone’s multiview screen, but buy as many Miami Credit Default Swaps as possible.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-11.5), O/U 44 ½

As I predicted last week the Browns are gonna be big dogs often in the first 4 games of the season, and I’m buying! From 2019 Baltimore has only covered 12 or more points in 3 games against the Browns, one of which was in week 18 last year when the Browns were dying to end the season. Flacco looked solid back with the Browns and we’ll likely get the best out of Flacco in the first 4 weeks of the season. Oddly enough Flacco has never played the Raven as a Brown, and only played his former team as a Jet in 2022. He’s yet to have revenge against the Ravens. I’ll take the Ravens to win the game as they can’t attempt fate again like last year starting 0-2. Only thing that worries me is only 17% of the public betting money is on the Browns to cover. While 83% of the bets are on the Browns to cover but most of the money is on the Ravens. Smells like sharp money, but they’re wrong. The Ravens have rarely trucened the Brown over the past 5 season, and are barely over .500 ats versus the Browns. Give me the Browns getting 11.5 and under 44.5 points.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs, O/U 46 ½

The last time the Chiefs went 0-2 was in 2014. The team went 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The Chiefs middled for a few seasons until they drafted QB Patrick Mahomes in 2017. This is only the third time in his career Mahomes has been a home dog with a 1-1 record. The “home” game he won was in Germany. The other was in Kansas City against Buffalo, and the Bills covered. If you’re picking Philly to cover or even taking the Philly moneyline (-108), you’re essentially betting the Chiefs will likely miss the playoffs. Only 35 teams have made the playoffs since 1990 after starting 0-2. Granted, the Ravens, Broncos, and Rams all made the playoffs last year after starting 0-2; however, 288 teams since 1990 have started 0-2 and only 35 (12.15%) of those teams made the playoffs.

I’m not buying the Chiefs going 0-2. Chiefs SU and over 46.5 points. Grab that +105 moneyline too. While I’m down on the Chiefs (I picked the Chargers straight up) I have too much respect for this team, especially Mahomes who may be the greatest underdog in all of sports. He’s 10-3 SU as an underdog regular and post-season. The Eagles already won a sketchy game against the Cowboys. Chiefs need this one more. Being home in Kansas City should help too. Per Sports Betting Dime 65% of the bets and 83% of the money is going to Philly. Hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes going 0-2 for the first time while still in his prime with at least an average to above average roster. Hell of a Monday morning on the talk shows if they go 0-2.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by César Hernández

The Fall Guys

C'mon Man

As the NFL season approaches, ESPN has cut some old Countdown faces and added new voices to their programming. The Mothership completely ousted Ray Lewis and Cris Carter while retaining Mike Ditka, but removing him from Countdown. Matt Hasslebeck, Randy Moss, and my man and former Raider great Charles Woodson will fill out Countdown. Trent Dilfer may also be out of ESPN though nothing has been officially reported yet. Either way the purging in Bristol continues almost everyday.

I have to say these acquisitions are upgrades over the last incarnation of the program. Ditka is uninteresting or uninsightful. Hasslebeck has been talked up over the years as a sharp guy. I expect his long career as a back-up and franchise player to bring a modern perspective the show has needed for a while. I’m sure people still want Berman and Tom Jackson out of Countdown. Wingo is the man, but there is still a bit of magic and nostalgia when I see those two together. They have a distinct chemistry that takes years of working together and a bit of luck. It’s kinda like the Spurs. Surround the old fading guys with new fresh talent. They keep the ship up but the old anchors bring the experience I like in key moments. I’m sure they and ESPN know Woodson, Moss, and Hasslebeck will carry the weight and bring a modern perspective to Countdown.

Hasslebeck recently backed-up Andrew Luck which should bring unequaled insight to his development as a player and the Colts organization. Their GM Ryan Grigson sucks. He’s only employed thanks to Andrew Luck, not even Al Davis couldn’t fuck that up, and his boss happens to be Jim Irsay. Not a man or family known for making good decisions. Hasslebeck also helped take the Seahawks to their first Super Bowl and once backed up Brett Farve. He should bring an intelligent take on many situations that will arise each NFL season. I look forward to seeing if he can separate himself from other former-commenting-players on TV.

The other two analysts seem more unknown but have retired more recently from the NFL. Maybe they can offer more contemporary opinions. Moss was at Fox for a few years but I saw him maybe once on air. I’d bet most of America never saw him on Fox. This will definitely raise his public profile. Woodson is a complete mystery however. Just retired from the league, I biasedly expect him to be good eventually but it may take the season for him to learn and feel out his new job. Over the next few seasons I expect my Raiders to start competing for the playoffs and hopefully someday contend for a deep run. It seems unlikely now but many of the key pieces are in place with Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper, a strong offensive line, and a developing defense. As the team grows and gains success Woodson’s relationship with the team may help him on Countdown.

I like these new hirings for ESPN. They’ve been taking a beating, rightfully so, for cutting and losing former employees. These changes were smart and probably cheaper. It’s not clear what lead the Mothership to dropping Carter and Lewis. Their contracts may be up. ESPN usually extends contracts before the last year is up according to Dan Patrick. If you check in after his interview with Mike Tirico he mentions this practice. Perhaps they planned on letting Lewis and Carter go for cheaper replacements. They certainly have excuses for letting each of them walk. Lewis was never great. He ended up relying on cliches and couldn’t give viewers insights on the game like a Cris Collinsworth. I don’t remember a time where he pointed out a nuance in a game that we as the viewer could never see without a solid analyst. Carter was far better than Lewis but he’s definitely replaceable. The fall guy comment with Warren Sapp doesn’t help either. He might get a job elsewhere. As NFL Memes said, R.I.P. C’mon Man.

What Up ESPN?

Any-Given-Wednesday-with-Bill-Simmons-TV-show-on-HBO-season-1-premiere-canceled-or-renewed

New HBO talent and one of my favorites Bill Simmons finally announced his new show last week and formally announced it on his podcast today. As the image above mentions the debut episode will air June 22nd at 10 PM. The first season will consist of twenty 30 minute episodes with various guests. Simmons indicated with guest Michael Rapaport these episodes will feature multiple guests. Perhaps more than one guest per episode and will focus on conversations about sports and pop culture. Certainly the strongest elements of Bill’s ideas and opinions.

I’m definitely curious about who he will have on the show and what exactly he wants to talk about with his guests. Simmons does interviews but exactly like a Dan Patrick or Rachel Nichols. He’s far more conversational, likes a laugh, gossip, and sharing stories. His unique personality and approach garners a different type of show from what’s been out there on TV for ages. I expect something new, refreshing, and most importantly an invite to a hilarious conversation at a modern kick back, whether at a sports bar, club, or however you enjoy getting your buzz on.

Hopefully Michael Rapaport will guest on an episode like they suggested on today’s podcast. Their conversations about famous cocksmen like Burgess Meredith, Dr. J, and Matt Dillon kill me. Especially the one about Burgess, the stickman of his day. I’ll be interested in seeing if it will be celebrity or athlete heavy. The old BS Report and Grantland regulars should come by as well. I’m looking for Chuck Klosterman and guys like that to guest on the show regularly.