Tag: Bucs

Looking Live at NFL Week 15, 2025

Yeah… so I didn’t keep my promise to myself to write these hook or by crook. Still, no sense in giving up writing. What excuses do I have? I dunno, I got tired. 4 weddings, 8 business trips, and 24 total flights in 2025. Didn’t track my mileage and I won’t do it. My career (thankfully) has finally taken off, the future is bright, and I’ve never travelled more in life. Point is I’ve never watched less football, and yet I have no FOMO. This season has been incredibly… Mediocre.

Ten weeks ago, 40 different QBs had already started an NFL game, the most since 2019. The record for most back-up QBs starting a game in a season was 66 in 2022. This season we are approaching 70 different starting QBs. There’s your moment med-zen.

Since I last wrote, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have losing records and will likely miss the playoffs, Bo Nix and Drake Maye brawling for the one seed, Maye and Matthew Stafford scrapping for MVP, and the Carolina Panthers in position to win the NFC South and host a playoff home game. I had Carolina over 6.5 wins but not winning the division. Tampa lost to a desultory Falcons with no direction put themselves in position to miss the playoffs entirely.

I’ll give myself a pat on the back though for my pre-season picks. At worst I’ll be 2-5, at best 4-5, and most likely 3-5. The Raiders, of course, had their annual colonoscopy out of contention months ago.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5), O/U 41.5

Ok, why am I picking this albatross, poo poo platter, Montezuma’s revenge of a game? If you made it this far, you’re reading a blog about point spreads from an amataur, you degenerate. GamblingProblem.com can’t help you. You’re in! There’s no going back. For us, the action IS the juice! This game cascades like the Epstein files. Spread opened at Jags -9.5 and jumped to two touchdowns. Every media outlet tripped over themselves to report it’s the biggest spread favoring the Jags since 2007.

So why this game? Well what game in 2007 and did the Jags cover? Took a minute but rode my time machine back to December 23, 2007, in Jacksonville when the Oakland Raiders visited Duval County. Whatever the spread was that day, the Jags covered! They smashed the Raiders 49 to 11 behind 3 Jamarcus Russell apple turnovers and 3 Jags rushing TDs. If you look back over the past 6 seasons the Jags have only been favored by 10 points or more once, and failed to cover.

The question is do you trust Trevor Lawrence to cover two touchdowns over third string undrafted rookie Brady Cook? Conversely, do you trust head coach Aaron Glenn and rookie Brady Cook to cover two touchdowns? Did Epstein really hang himself? Why are there so many pictures of and documents pertaining to President Trump in Jeffrey Epstein’s estate? Why are there so many flaws in the Warren Report? Where do the aliens really hide under our oceans? DO YOU BELIEVE?!?! I believe in the Jags -13.5, over 41.5 points. I think you can count on Trevor beating up on the hapless Jets, just like aliens being real.

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5), O/U 48.5

Don’t worry, I’m not writing another Joe Rogan monologue for this pick. You don’t need to say much for a Cowboys squad whose record (6-6-1) nearly matches their ATS (7-6). Cowboys are 2-4 ATS as favorites. The line opened at Cowboys -7.5 and haven’t been favored by more than 6 point thus far in 2025. 63% of the public money has gone to the Cowboys, according to the Action Network. Sure, CeeDee Lamb cleared concussion protocol and returned to practice as a full participant on Thursday. Not too confident Lamb will just go off like nothing happened. Minnesota’s defense and JJ McCarthy seem to be getting healthy and have not been eliminated from the playoffs, yet. Give me the Vikings to cover and over 48.5 points.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburg Steelers (-3), O/U 42.5

Another short take based on intuition and the fact I have vision is 20/20. Tua is averaging 21.25 pass attempts over their last 4 wins, completing on average 13.5 passes (63.53%). Do you trust Tua on a December night in Pittsburg? Against a team with weird luck who needs to keep stacking wins to win their division? Miami is due for a loss (their owner should be praying for one so they can fire McDaniel), and betting against Tua in the winter elements is money! I started looking to build the stats to support this claim, but was too busy running over state lines to place my bet. This one is my favorite of the week. Steelers cover, over 42.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 5, 2025

I won’t be watching football this weekend, nor have I watched any this week. I’m celebrating my anniversary. Two glorious years! I jokingly told my wife over crab mac and cheese “here’s to two more years” which she took to mean our marriage would only last two more years… I recovered quickly by claiming I was starting a tradition. Every anniversary I will proclaim “here’s to [insert anniversary year milestone] more years” to expand upon the many positive years to look forward to. She wondered what I will say on our 50th anniversary. Obviously another 50 years! What else? We’re not dying right?

So far I’m failing, hard, at my picks. Rather than blame myself I’ll borrow from Tom Brady’s assessment of the NFL’s current QB’s and the CBA. Today’s college prospects are less prepared for the NFL than ever. While the transfer portal and NIL has provide the “student athletes” freedom to own their own destiny (and rightfully so), college players seem more focused on collecting every endorsement dollar possible rather than develop their skills for the professional level. Obviously most athletes peak at the collegiate level and thus we ought to encourage them to make good on their brief financial opportunities. Still most of them don’t realize they’re not cut out for the NFL and still persist towards the league.

Gone, likely, are the days of a Tom Brady sticking it out at one university and fighting up the bottom of the depth chart to starter. QB’s especially need a certain number of college starts, wins, and pass attempts before having preparedness for the NFL. The Bill Parcell Rules are a great starting point: be a three-year starter, senior and graduate from college, start 30 games and win at least 23, 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and complete at least 60% of pass attempts. While these rules aren’t fool-proof (look at Tom Brady) it’s a great starting point. I can overlook college wins if the prospect played with weaker talent but still performed well. Starting 30 or more games over 3 years plus 2:1 TDs-to-INTs on a high volume of pass attempts means more to me.

Cam Ward had 2330 passes in college. Anthony Richardson only had 393 attempts. Ward is on a horrible team with a worse coaching staff, yet watching him on Sundays you can see he’s not the problem. Put him on the Colts at the start of the off-season and he plays as good as Danny Dimes. Richardson would be lucky to make any team’s practice squad.

Add these ill-prepared and limited number of fine college prospects to the current NFL CBA. The number of padded practices during the season and training camp are limited, as well as full-contact practice which also mandates recovery days. Two-a-day practices are extinct. The CBA also limits the length and intensity of off-season workouts and in-season practices to promote player safety. I’m not here to do away with these rules; however, these limitations have constrained player development to a point where it affects the quality of the game and overall the product. The player safety paradigm has swung too far towards safety. The game is inherently unsafe and we ought to accept the obvious truth.

We need relinquish some of these limits, otherwise we’ll continue to look at weeks 1 through 4 has the preseason. The three preseason games we have now do not server to prepare starters for the regular season. Over the past 25 years the preseason as mattered less and less as clubs sought to avoid injuries to star and key players. While preseason games told us little about the teams until week 1 it still served developing rookies or developmental players on the fringe. Doesn’t seem to serve any purpose anymore other than to provide on-air content. These inefficiencies in the NFL product will get better. The game has only gotten better in its history and overcome conflicts like domestic violence and chronic head injuries. It will be a few years before the collegiate level figures out how to control and manage the portal and NIL. The current NFL CBA. expires after the 2030 season. Things will change, but not for at least another 5 seasons.

Anyways, I’m not going to pick every game as I usually do. I’ll give my 3 picks, which will be purely based on gut feeling rather than some research and analysis with my gut. Knowing my luck week 5 will be steller with great performances from contending teams while I drive home from the Gulf Coast. I’m giving 4 picks this week. Just had to. You’ll see why.

Giants +3.5

Eagles -3.5

Panthers +1.5*

Buccaneers +4.5

*Fuck it I’m shorting the Dolphins again!!!

Looking Live at NFL Week 1, 2025

The start of the football season varies for most people. For my dad, probably Labor Day. For me, Guess The Lines for week 1 on the Bill Simmons podcast. I have been miseribly awaiting for the NFL to return. Don’t talk to me about pre-season. Nobody likes army rations. We all suffered a sports draught this past July and August with no NBA and no Olympics. Love ya MLB but you can’t fill my fix. Neither could ESPN, FS1, and all the other media outlets. Even today, Labor Day, feels like the first day we’re getting serious football coverage, CFB or NFL.

I’m dying to be inundated with football talk, can’t get enough, and I’m just not getting it. Sure, Guess The Lines dropped last night but I want more. Where is it? Hopefully as ramp up to Thursday’s season opener kicks in we’ll have more non-stop NFL programming. We need to hear more about player injuries (some key ones coming up!) and betting trends. There are 9 divisional games in week 1, the most in week 1 since 2020, so you’d think we’d hear more about divisional trends. Well the Action Network has the goods. Week 1 divisional home dogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010. Point? Over the past 15 years home divisional dogs cover greater than 76% of the time in week 1. In the past 7 years that rate is over 83%!

Let’s look big picture now. Underdogs, in week 1, of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since 2006. Dogs are under .500 ATS in just 1 of those 19 seasons. We’ve got 4 matchups in week 1 of 6.5 or higher. Best believe folks will betting on those dogs to cover. Since 2016, underdogs are 132-90-6 ATS in week 1 covering 60% of the spread. Dogs are at least .500 ATS or better every single year the last 9 years. Basically, if in doubt bet the dogs, which is music to my ears. I picked 8 dogs in week 1, speaking of which I decided to track my picks each week (for better or worse) for the public to see.

I may not be podcasting anymore or have the same time to research as I did in the past, but dammit I need this action. Every week I still want to go through this like a routine. Who cares if I suck at it. I HAD TO GET ON MAN!!! Ok, enough posturing. Here are my three favorites of week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons, O/U 46 ½

Soooooooo… I know a few paragraphs ago I wrote divisional home dogs in the past 7 years cover 83% of the time in week 1… But I’m taking my Bucs to cover on in Atlanta. While many have the Falcons offensive line ranked in the top 10 this offseason, I do not, they lost starting RT Kaleb McGary for the season. McGary was arguably their most valuable player lead blocking for RB Bijan Robinson and protecting the blindside of the left-handed franchise QB Michael Penix Jr. This is Penix’s first season at the helm from jump street. Losing a blue chipper like McGary will haunt this team for the entire 2025 campaign.

The Falcons have addressed this problem by shifting Elijah Wilkinson and trading for Michael Jerrell. These are band-aids players not replacements for McGary. Wilkinson had penalty problems in the past, which bodes well for Super Bowl level Bucs defense. And yes, the Bucs have injury problems too with LT Tristan Wirfs out a few weeks, but the Bucs have known this for several weeks now while the Falcons lost McGary 6 days ago. Overall, I have liked this Bucs team since they acquired QB Baker Mayfield. This year feels like it could be special run with this group. GM, Head Coach, and QB advantage for the Bucs over the Falcons all day everyday for me. While I’m excited to watch Penix run this thing from training camp onward he hasn’t faced this defense before. Also, until proven otherwise, Atlanta’s defense is a joke. Bucs cover and give me over as well.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 47 ½

Cleveland can never justify letting Joe Flacco walk prior to the 2024 campaign. I remind you Flacco signed with the Colts as a backup instead. Watson had a lengthy injury history to begin with. Why not pay for a proven insurance plan? While the Bengals played their starters in the pre-season I’m not buying they’ll magically start faster in the first month of the season. Especially against a rival whose defense will punish them win, lose, or draw. I repeat again, divisional home dogs in week 1 cover over 83% of the time. While the line is under 6.5 I still buy into the data of big dogs covering most of the time in week 1. This may be my favorite spread of the week and I’ll be honing in on the Browns these first 4 weeks as they face 4 Super Bowl contenders in the early Sunday window. I’m assuming they’ll be big to big-ish dogs in each game. I like them a lot right now. Admittedly it’s a gut feeling more than data driven decision. Browns cover. Under 47.5 which is just too damn high.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-6.5), O/U 45 ½

I’ll be honest, half the reason for picking this spread is so I can refer to the Commanders as The Condoms, and for week 1 get a pregnancy test. Abdul Carter and Sexy Dexy are going to get more penetration than Michael B. Jordan at a sorority party. The Condoms won’t cover this time. Last season was magical and a complete organizational and brand rebound for the Condoms, yet they faced very few top tier QBs. Sure they beat Joe Burrow but the Bengals overall were a disappointment. This season they play multiple playoff QBs and face the AFC West. Dogs in week 1 of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since over the past 19 years. Giants win total is set at 5.5 but I expect this team to be frisky dog with the defense alone. Down the road with QB Jaxson Dart at the helm perhaps the team could be a hot team to fade or perhaps bandwagon with. Either way I expect the Giants to see big spreads and salivate my dog chops. Give me the Giants to cover and under 45.5.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Mick Haupt