Tag: Buccaneers

Looking Live at NFL Week 1, 2025

The start of the football season varies for most people. For my dad, probably Labor Day. For me, Guess The Lines for week 1 on the Bill Simmons podcast. I have been miseribly awaiting for the NFL to return. Don’t talk to me about pre-season. Nobody likes army rations. We all suffered a sports draught this past July and August with no NBA and no Olympics. Love ya MLB but you can’t fill my fix. Neither could ESPN, FS1, and all the other media outlets. Even today, Labor Day, feels like the first day we’re getting serious football coverage, CFB or NFL.

I’m dying to be inundated with football talk, can’t get enough, and I’m just not getting it. Sure, Guess The Lines dropped last night but I want more. Where is it? Hopefully as ramp up to Thursday’s season opener kicks in we’ll have more non-stop NFL programming. We need to hear more about player injuries (some key ones coming up!) and betting trends. There are 9 divisional games in week 1, the most in week 1 since 2020, so you’d think we’d hear more about divisional trends. Well the Action Network has the goods. Week 1 divisional home dogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010. Point? Over the past 15 years home divisional dogs cover greater than 76% of the time in week 1. In the past 7 years that rate is over 83%!

Let’s look big picture now. Underdogs, in week 1, of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since 2006. Dogs are under .500 ATS in just 1 of those 19 seasons. We’ve got 4 matchups in week 1 of 6.5 or higher. Best believe folks will betting on those dogs to cover. Since 2016, underdogs are 132-90-6 ATS in week 1 covering 60% of the spread. Dogs are at least .500 ATS or better every single year the last 9 years. Basically, if in doubt bet the dogs, which is music to my ears. I picked 8 dogs in week 1, speaking of which I decided to track my picks each week (for better or worse) for the public to see.

I may not be podcasting anymore or have the same time to research as I did in the past, but dammit I need this action. Every week I still want to go through this like a routine. Who cares if I suck at it. I HAD TO GET ON MAN!!! Ok, enough posturing. Here are my three favorites of week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons, O/U 46 ½

Soooooooo… I know a few paragraphs ago I wrote divisional home dogs in the past 7 years cover 83% of the time in week 1… But I’m taking my Bucs to cover on in Atlanta. While many have the Falcons offensive line ranked in the top 10 this offseason, I do not, they lost starting RT Kaleb McGary for the season. McGary was arguably their most valuable player lead blocking for RB Bijan Robinson and protecting the blindside of the left-handed franchise QB Michael Penix Jr. This is Penix’s first season at the helm from jump street. Losing a blue chipper like McGary will haunt this team for the entire 2025 campaign.

The Falcons have addressed this problem by shifting Elijah Wilkinson and trading for Michael Jerrell. These are band-aids players not replacements for McGary. Wilkinson had penalty problems in the past, which bodes well for Super Bowl level Bucs defense. And yes, the Bucs have injury problems too with LT Tristan Wirfs out a few weeks, but the Bucs have known this for several weeks now while the Falcons lost McGary 6 days ago. Overall, I have liked this Bucs team since they acquired QB Baker Mayfield. This year feels like it could be special run with this group. GM, Head Coach, and QB advantage for the Bucs over the Falcons all day everyday for me. While I’m excited to watch Penix run this thing from training camp onward he hasn’t faced this defense before. Also, until proven otherwise, Atlanta’s defense is a joke. Bucs cover and give me over as well.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 47 ½

Cleveland can never justify letting Joe Flacco walk prior to the 2024 campaign. I remind you Flacco signed with the Colts as a backup instead. Watson had a lengthy injury history to begin with. Why not pay for a proven insurance plan? While the Bengals played their starters in the pre-season I’m not buying they’ll magically start faster in the first month of the season. Especially against a rival whose defense will punish them win, lose, or draw. I repeat again, divisional home dogs in week 1 cover over 83% of the time. While the line is under 6.5 I still buy into the data of big dogs covering most of the time in week 1. This may be my favorite spread of the week and I’ll be honing in on the Browns these first 4 weeks as they face 4 Super Bowl contenders in the early Sunday window. I’m assuming they’ll be big to big-ish dogs in each game. I like them a lot right now. Admittedly it’s a gut feeling more than data driven decision. Browns cover. Under 47.5 which is just too damn high.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-6.5), O/U 45 ½

I’ll be honest, half the reason for picking this spread is so I can refer to the Commanders as The Condoms, and for week 1 get a pregnancy test. Abdul Carter and Sexy Dexy are going to get more penetration than Michael B. Jordan at a sorority party. The Condoms won’t cover this time. Last season was magical and a complete organizational and brand rebound for the Condoms, yet they faced very few top tier QBs. Sure they beat Joe Burrow but the Bengals overall were a disappointment. This season they play multiple playoff QBs and face the AFC West. Dogs in week 1 of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since over the past 19 years. Giants win total is set at 5.5 but I expect this team to be frisky dog with the defense alone. Down the road with QB Jaxson Dart at the helm perhaps the team could be a hot team to fade or perhaps bandwagon with. Either way I expect the Giants to see big spreads and salivate my dog chops. Give me the Giants to cover and under 45.5.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Mick Haupt

5 Overs for 2025

Pacers finished the Knicks Saturday night to make only their second NBA Finals appearance in their existence. My dad called the Pacers winning by 20 points, spread was Pacers -4. Siakam winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the team advancing to the Finals had some incredible futures.

It’s been a great story, but the ride ends in Oklahoma City with a gentleman’s sweep. The end can’t come fast enough either. I’m ready for football. I’m not sure how many more podcasts I can stand without listening to Cousin Sal or Shea in Irving lament the Cowboys. Or Bill Simmons exclaiming the Saints are the new 99 Rams.

SGA, Haliburton, or Giannis trade destinations aren’t doing it for me. Neither’s another Pablo Torre “investigation” into Bill Belichick where Pablo denies his interest in their age difference while spiraling into the same depravity as Belichick. No more farewell pods or Youtube homages for Inside The NBA. It’ll be back on ESPN (unless they fuck it up). I just can’t do more of these…

Ok well maybe more pods about Zion’s rape and abuse allegations. The man’s a victim of hubris, pussy, and Popeyes. A combination I can almost understand. I too get high and mighty about my cats and fried chicken.

No! I’m ready for football! And I’m ready to be wrong and hurt again!!! Let’s do some fucking futures baby. I’ve got two teams who’ve been good to me, two new teams I’m falling in like with, and one team that keeps shoving a freshly sharpened Ticonderoga up my ass each year. And yet… I CAN’T QUIT YOU!!!

We are NOT going 8-8 again!!!

Los Angeles Rams, Over 9.5 Wins
Rams have been 10-7 two years in a row and this improving roaster gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles all the could handle in the divisional round. The year before the Rams almost beat a red hot Lions squad. Rams get the AFC South this season which is at least three easy wins (Colts, Titans, Jags). I like the Rams to win at least 10 games and make another run all the way to lose in the NFC Championship, which you can get on Draft Kings at +850. Love that value. You can get over 9.5 at around -150.

You’re not you when you’re sacked

Carolina Panthers, Over 6.5 Wins
After their week 11 bye the Panthers started showing signs geniune development. Carolina gave the Eagles and Chiefs a hell of a fight, took their rival Buccaneers to OT, and eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs. They finished 5-12, but Bryce Young showed the team and every Ringer employee he was no bust. The draft proved the team has invested its future into Bryce. Outside of their division, the schedule isn’t rosey. Drawing the AFC East won’t be easy with the exception of the Dolphins. Even the Jets with seemingly legitimate head coaching will be a long day. But they do get the Jaguars in the opener. 7 wins for a team that covered 5 of 7 game spreads against several playoff teams after the bye piques my interest.

I’m Vita Vea’s replacement (in two years)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Over 9.5 Wins
I admit, the Bucs are a weird fucking team. They were 4-6 going into their bye week and had lost 4 games in a row. Maybe they spent their bye on Isla de Muerta to pick up cursed gold cuz those guys went 6-1, if not for the Cowboys, the rest of the way. They lost to an incredible Commanders team in close fashion who went on to the NFC title game. The prior year also had a 4 game losing streak which was matched by a 4 game winning streak and a hard fought division round loss against the Lions.

The Bucs snagged WR Emeka Egbuka in the draft for the future with veterans Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin nearing the ends of their careers. CBs Benjamin Morris and Jacob Pariah fill needs in an always injured secondary force to call upon the practice squad. Oh! And they signed 6′ 6″ 464 LB undrafted free agent defensive tackle Desmond Watson, the heaviest player in NFL history, destined to replace Vita Vea.

Head Coach Todd Bowles told ESPN’s Jenna Laine “to judge him right now is very early, and we didn’t get him for the tush push — we got him because we really thought he could play.” Bowles continued “right now, we just have to see how long he can stay on the field, andnput him on a program where we think he can make some progress.” Watson still needs to make the roster but he’s slimmed down 27 LBs while in rookie mini-camp. I’m clearly way too invested in his success.

This team has veterans under contract, except Evans who is entering his final year, and bunch of young new players. 10-7 again in a division they’ve won two years straight makes a lot of sense. They’re by far the most stable franchise in the division too. Where things might go off the rails for this team though will be weeks 16 and 18 when the Bucs play their rival Panthers twice in three weeks. Those games will likely decide who wins the NFC South. Until I see someone consistently beat them for the division I’ll stick with the Bucs.

CJ? More like JC!

Houston Texans, Over 9.5 Wins
The CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans Texans regime finished it’s first two years losing in the divisional round to the well established Ravens and Super Bowl champion Chiefs… But apparently they’ll have to prove themselves to Mt. Carmel High School coach Diante Lee.

Anyways… I’m feeling pretty good about my Texans PROVING themselves to ole Diante, a man with more football credibility than anyone I’ve ever known, after going 10-7 (and hitting the over) two seasons in a row. Just to appetize even more, you can get the over at +100. They’ll taste the AFC Championship this year (+950). Two years of close losses in the Divisional they’re ready for the next logical progression. They’ve continued to draft well adding WRs Jaylen Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and resigning key contributors to the team.

The strength of schedule for the Texans is middling amongst most evaluators, although I see this schedule in the top third of difficulty. The NFC West is a clunky division with the Rams looking to make another run, an aging but retooling 49ers, and two pretty beatable teams in Seattle and Arizona. Not fun to have to play the Bucs out of conference, Ravens, and everyone in the AFC West, my pick for toughest division. Still, 10 wins getting to play the Colts, Titans, and Jags is likely 5 to 6 wins right there. They should at least split the NFC West. Maybe even split the AFC West. 10 wins should be easy money at +100 with a PROVEN track record.

Jim Harbaugh: “I’m just here so I won’t get fined.”

Las Vegas Raiders, Over 6.5 Wins
Maybe this will be the year I won’t thrust another pencil up my anus after another lost Raider season. No, this year does indeed feel different. The hiring of GM John Spytek and Head Coach Pete Carroll states an organizational goal of regaining credibility and respect in this league. New minority owner and Mark Davis whisperer Tom Brady provides stability at the top this team lost after Al Davis just simply got too old. Gruden had the team moving in the right direction before Daniel Snyder allegedly leaked his emails to the New York Times.

Since their Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneer the Raiders have only had two seasons of note. Both of which ended with Derek Carr breaking his fibula and Derek Carr mismanaging the end of game clock versus Cincinnati. I don’t give a rat’s ass what anyone thinks, if Carr just manages the clock correctly Raiders win that game. Cincy went on to lose in the Super Bowl.

This new administration completely fabrises the stench of Antonio Pierce, Josh McDaniels, Carr, and Gru who returned to the FFCA feeling nicey! Spytek spent his first draft truly building a team from both need and value. Admittedly I didn’t love the Jeanty pick at first; however, you combine him with the best quarterback they’ve had since MVP Rich Gannon, incredible skill players lead by Brock Bowers, and an improving line with LT Kolton Miller and C Jackson Powers-Johnson there’s enough talent (finally) to be a serious threat on offense every Sunday.

Funny how Geno Smith hasn’t even taken an in game snap and I’ve already anointed him the best Raiders QB since Gannon. That should tell all you non-Raider and Saint fans what it’s like living in QB mediocrity-hell.

Raiders added WR Jack Bech from TCU in the second round who will immediately contribute as a rookie both inside and out. By seasons end he’ll be the number 2 receiver. The Raiders used their high end picks to accumulate more picks which they used to bluster both sides of the line and the receiver room.

Regaining credibility is the prime objective this season. Raiders shouldn’t be favored in most games but I’m calling a split in the AFC West with all their rivals in the back half of the season (hopefully fucking over the Chiefs in the regular season finale). We also get the Bears, Titans, Browns, Giants, Jags, and Cowboys at home. For some reason we’ve been a thorn in Dallas’s side over the past few years.

There’s a clear road to 7 wins for this squad looking to gain back the honor to which their used to mean something in this league. There’s gonna be an upset win against a playoff team I can’t predict. Mostly, I just don’t want my hemorrhoids popped by lead point again.

Win Total Data: Vegas Insider