Tag: Buccaneers

Looking Live at NFL Week 18, 2025

Life… is a game of inches. So is football. These wise words come from Coach Tony D’Amato in 1999’s Any Given Sunday. Tony understood the duality of life and football existed only in inches. The margin for error so small anymore than a fingernail could mean life or death. That, dear reader, is football.

You may have surmised by now I watched Any Given Sunday today, and you’re damn right. The movie prophesied the state of the NFL two plus decades into the future. Hotshot wunderkind offensive coordinators like Nick Crozier vying for the head coaching crown. Managing and disguising concussions so your starters keep playing. The emergence of the Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes prototype quarterbacks in late 2010’s. Sure we had Aaron Brooks and Michael Vick in the early 2000’s, but they were nowhere near what Mahomes, Jackson, or even Jalen Hurts have achieved. Willie Beamen would have kept the Chiefs playoff hopes alive, if he weren’t fictional.

Any Given Sunday cemented several character tropes seen daily on the national talking head shows and in the league today. Dr. Harvey Mandrake needs his own Ballers type mini-series on HBO. Ole Harvey, played by James Woods, loves the action and loves the players, in his own fucked up way. Kind of like Dee Dee Blanchard. “These men are gladiators, warriors!” And according to Harvey, football players made that choice a long time ago. While true, players then and now, understand the physical cost of football they still deserve to know what’s happening to their bodies. Harvey forgot that part.

Jack Rose and his midday cable show dished straight hot takes 4 years before Cold Pizza and a dozen years before Stephen A. Smith permanently sat across Skip Bayless on First Take. John C. McGinley, who portrays Jack, based his performance on Jim Rome, although he reminds me much more of Colin Cowherd and his cowturd take on being a sports media personality.

Most walk away from Any Given Sunday with Al Pacino’s speech as Tony D’Amato. It’s by far what should be remembered at the very least. Life is a game of inches, and so is football. The inches are everywhere around us, and when you add up all those inches that’s gonna make the fucking difference between winning and losing! That’s all I have to say to the following six teams playing this weekend to get in the tournament. Winner takes all. Loser leaves town. Living and dying! Football, dear reader. Now, are you gonna pick the dog? Or Tease the favorites?

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) O/U 43.5

Bryce Young might play a home game in the playoffs. How did we get here? Two years ago he was deemed a bust. Saturday he may help the Panthers win the NFC South for the first time in a decade! The Bucs should have wrapped this division up months ago. Baker Mayfield lead the MVP pack for a few weeks. Since the Ram loss and Baker’s shoulder strain the team has gone 1-4. The defense’s secondary was broken over this 4 game losing streak. Todd Bowles’s voice no longer resonates with his players. The Tampa Meltdown is imminent. I grant you, the Panthers aren’t a steady team. One week they beat the Rams or a healthier Packer team. The next week they blow it to the Saints. The Buccaneers however have found innovative ways to lose for month. This is a team ready to crator. Bowles, who I support, but lost the team, will likely update his LinkedIn to “Open to Work” by Black Monday. This team may see major departures from long tenured plays. The Panthers are ready to meet the moment of tasting the postseason. Panthers straight-up, over 43.5 points.

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) @ San Francisco 49ers O/U 49.5

How are the Seahawks favored? This is another rat line. I sniffed out some rodenticide two weeks ago when the Patriots “upset” the Ravens on the road. Wasn’t an upset to me. Seattle being favored at home is one thing, but on the road? If the Seahawks win on Saturday and they earn the 1 seed in the NFC. A loss may result going on the road to the NFC South champion. I’m having deja vu… Sam Darnold found himself in the same scenario almost one year to the day while on the Vikings facing the Detroit on the road week 18 2024. This time Darnold is favored. Look, Seattle beating the Rams was probably the best regular season game of the 2025 season. It was incredible and who wasn’t thrilled for Darnold? Sure we all were, but the guy throws interceptions almost every week. Most times multiple picks. The Rams win doesn’t look as good after another stunning loss Monday night to the eliminated Falcons. Rams are trending down, the 49ers have been trending up over a 6 game winning streak. 49ers straight-up, under 49.5 points.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 40.5

Loser leaves town? More like loser joins the ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX media carousel. Whoever loses will likely part ways with their head coach. Whomever wins will host the Shakey’s Bowl during wild card weekend, and lose at home. Either way, Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh will likely be looking for new employment. Both are great coaches, deserve another opportunity, and will have success again, but their time in the AFC North is done. Both teams must ponder overhauling their organization top down. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have come to another crossroads. There are plenty of rumors but no reports of Baltimore seriously considering moving on from Jackson. There’s enough smoke to indicate discontent among management and his fellow players. Something has to change, but not until their season ends. It won’t end Sunday night. Baltimore’s defense has enough talent to suppress Pittsburgh’s decrepit offense. Snoop Huntley and another 30 carry effort from Derrick Henry should be enough to roll over an ancient Steeler defense. Don’t be afraid to lay the points. Ravens cover, under 40.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 15, 2025

Yeah… so I didn’t keep my promise to myself to write these hook or by crook. Still, no sense in giving up writing. What excuses do I have? I dunno, I got tired. 4 weddings, 8 business trips, and 24 total flights in 2025. Didn’t track my mileage and I won’t do it. My career (thankfully) has finally taken off, the future is bright, and I’ve never travelled more in life. Point is I’ve never watched less football, and yet I have no FOMO. This season has been incredibly… Mediocre.

Ten weeks ago, 40 different QBs had already started an NFL game, the most since 2019. The record for most back-up QBs starting a game in a season was 66 in 2022. This season we are approaching 70 different starting QBs. There’s your moment med-zen.

Since I last wrote, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have losing records and will likely miss the playoffs, Bo Nix and Drake Maye brawling for the one seed, Maye and Matthew Stafford scrapping for MVP, and the Carolina Panthers in position to win the NFC South and host a playoff home game. I had Carolina over 6.5 wins but not winning the division. Tampa lost to a desultory Falcons with no direction put themselves in position to miss the playoffs entirely.

I’ll give myself a pat on the back though for my pre-season picks. At worst I’ll be 2-5, at best 4-5, and most likely 3-5. The Raiders, of course, had their annual colonoscopy out of contention months ago.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5), O/U 41.5

Ok, why am I picking this albatross, poo poo platter, Montezuma’s revenge of a game? If you made it this far, you’re reading a blog about point spreads from an amataur, you degenerate. GamblingProblem.com can’t help you. You’re in! There’s no going back. For us, the action IS the juice! This game cascades like the Epstein files. Spread opened at Jags -9.5 and jumped to two touchdowns. Every media outlet tripped over themselves to report it’s the biggest spread favoring the Jags since 2007.

So why this game? Well what game in 2007 and did the Jags cover? Took a minute but rode my time machine back to December 23, 2007, in Jacksonville when the Oakland Raiders visited Duval County. Whatever the spread was that day, the Jags covered! They smashed the Raiders 49 to 11 behind 3 Jamarcus Russell apple turnovers and 3 Jags rushing TDs. If you look back over the past 6 seasons the Jags have only been favored by 10 points or more once, and failed to cover.

The question is do you trust Trevor Lawrence to cover two touchdowns over third string undrafted rookie Brady Cook? Conversely, do you trust head coach Aaron Glenn and rookie Brady Cook to cover two touchdowns? Did Epstein really hang himself? Why are there so many pictures of and documents pertaining to President Trump in Jeffrey Epstein’s estate? Why are there so many flaws in the Warren Report? Where do the aliens really hide under our oceans? DO YOU BELIEVE?!?! I believe in the Jags -13.5, over 41.5 points. I think you can count on Trevor beating up on the hapless Jets, just like aliens being real.

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5), O/U 48.5

Don’t worry, I’m not writing another Joe Rogan monologue for this pick. You don’t need to say much for a Cowboys squad whose record (6-6-1) nearly matches their ATS (7-6). Cowboys are 2-4 ATS as favorites. The line opened at Cowboys -7.5 and haven’t been favored by more than 6 point thus far in 2025. 63% of the public money has gone to the Cowboys, according to the Action Network. Sure, CeeDee Lamb cleared concussion protocol and returned to practice as a full participant on Thursday. Not too confident Lamb will just go off like nothing happened. Minnesota’s defense and JJ McCarthy seem to be getting healthy and have not been eliminated from the playoffs, yet. Give me the Vikings to cover and over 48.5 points.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburg Steelers (-3), O/U 42.5

Another short take based on intuition and the fact I have vision is 20/20. Tua is averaging 21.25 pass attempts over their last 4 wins, completing on average 13.5 passes (63.53%). Do you trust Tua on a December night in Pittsburg? Against a team with weird luck who needs to keep stacking wins to win their division? Miami is due for a loss (their owner should be praying for one so they can fire McDaniel), and betting against Tua in the winter elements is money! I started looking to build the stats to support this claim, but was too busy running over state lines to place my bet. This one is my favorite of the week. Steelers cover, over 42.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 5, 2025

I won’t be watching football this weekend, nor have I watched any this week. I’m celebrating my anniversary. Two glorious years! I jokingly told my wife over crab mac and cheese “here’s to two more years” which she took to mean our marriage would only last two more years… I recovered quickly by claiming I was starting a tradition. Every anniversary I will proclaim “here’s to [insert anniversary year milestone] more years” to expand upon the many positive years to look forward to. She wondered what I will say on our 50th anniversary. Obviously another 50 years! What else? We’re not dying right?

So far I’m failing, hard, at my picks. Rather than blame myself I’ll borrow from Tom Brady’s assessment of the NFL’s current QB’s and the CBA. Today’s college prospects are less prepared for the NFL than ever. While the transfer portal and NIL has provide the “student athletes” freedom to own their own destiny (and rightfully so), college players seem more focused on collecting every endorsement dollar possible rather than develop their skills for the professional level. Obviously most athletes peak at the collegiate level and thus we ought to encourage them to make good on their brief financial opportunities. Still most of them don’t realize they’re not cut out for the NFL and still persist towards the league.

Gone, likely, are the days of a Tom Brady sticking it out at one university and fighting up the bottom of the depth chart to starter. QB’s especially need a certain number of college starts, wins, and pass attempts before having preparedness for the NFL. The Bill Parcell Rules are a great starting point: be a three-year starter, senior and graduate from college, start 30 games and win at least 23, 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and complete at least 60% of pass attempts. While these rules aren’t fool-proof (look at Tom Brady) it’s a great starting point. I can overlook college wins if the prospect played with weaker talent but still performed well. Starting 30 or more games over 3 years plus 2:1 TDs-to-INTs on a high volume of pass attempts means more to me.

Cam Ward had 2330 passes in college. Anthony Richardson only had 393 attempts. Ward is on a horrible team with a worse coaching staff, yet watching him on Sundays you can see he’s not the problem. Put him on the Colts at the start of the off-season and he plays as good as Danny Dimes. Richardson would be lucky to make any team’s practice squad.

Add these ill-prepared and limited number of fine college prospects to the current NFL CBA. The number of padded practices during the season and training camp are limited, as well as full-contact practice which also mandates recovery days. Two-a-day practices are extinct. The CBA also limits the length and intensity of off-season workouts and in-season practices to promote player safety. I’m not here to do away with these rules; however, these limitations have constrained player development to a point where it affects the quality of the game and overall the product. The player safety paradigm has swung too far towards safety. The game is inherently unsafe and we ought to accept the obvious truth.

We need relinquish some of these limits, otherwise we’ll continue to look at weeks 1 through 4 has the preseason. The three preseason games we have now do not server to prepare starters for the regular season. Over the past 25 years the preseason as mattered less and less as clubs sought to avoid injuries to star and key players. While preseason games told us little about the teams until week 1 it still served developing rookies or developmental players on the fringe. Doesn’t seem to serve any purpose anymore other than to provide on-air content. These inefficiencies in the NFL product will get better. The game has only gotten better in its history and overcome conflicts like domestic violence and chronic head injuries. It will be a few years before the collegiate level figures out how to control and manage the portal and NIL. The current NFL CBA. expires after the 2030 season. Things will change, but not for at least another 5 seasons.

Anyways, I’m not going to pick every game as I usually do. I’ll give my 3 picks, which will be purely based on gut feeling rather than some research and analysis with my gut. Knowing my luck week 5 will be steller with great performances from contending teams while I drive home from the Gulf Coast. I’m giving 4 picks this week. Just had to. You’ll see why.

Giants +3.5

Eagles -3.5

Panthers +1.5*

Buccaneers +4.5

*Fuck it I’m shorting the Dolphins again!!!