5 Overs for 2025

Pacers finished the Knicks Saturday night to make only their second NBA Finals appearance in their existence. My dad called the Pacers winning by 20 points, spread was Pacers -4. Siakam winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the team advancing to the Finals had some incredible futures.

It’s been a great story, but the ride ends in Oklahoma City with a gentleman’s sweep. The end can’t come fast enough either. I’m ready for football. I’m not sure how many more podcasts I can stand without listening to Cousin Sal or Shea in Irving lament the Cowboys. Or Bill Simmons exclaiming the Saints are the new 99 Rams.

SGA, Haliburton, or Giannis trade destinations aren’t doing it for me. Neither’s another Pablo Torre “investigation” into Bill Belichick where Pablo denies his interest in their age difference while spiraling into the same depravity as Belichick. No more farewell pods or Youtube homages for Inside The NBA. It’ll be back on ESPN (unless they fuck it up). I just can’t do more of these…

Ok well maybe more pods about Zion’s rape and abuse allegations. The man’s a victim of hubris, pussy, and Popeyes. A combination I can almost understand. I too get high and mighty about my cats and fried chicken.

No! I’m ready for football! And I’m ready to be wrong and hurt again!!! Let’s do some fucking futures baby. I’ve got two teams who’ve been good to me, two new teams I’m falling in like with, and one team that keeps shoving a freshly sharpened Ticonderoga up my ass each year. And yet… I CAN’T QUIT YOU!!!

We are NOT going 8-8 again!!!

Los Angeles Rams, Over 9.5 Wins
Rams have been 10-7 two years in a row and this improving roaster gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles all the could handle in the divisional round. The year before the Rams almost beat a red hot Lions squad. Rams get the AFC South this season which is at least three easy wins (Colts, Titans, Jags). I like the Rams to win at least 10 games and make another run all the way to lose in the NFC Championship, which you can get on Draft Kings at +850. Love that value. You can get over 9.5 at around -150.

You’re not you when you’re sacked

Carolina Panthers, Over 6.5 Wins
After their week 11 bye the Panthers started showing signs geniune development. Carolina gave the Eagles and Chiefs a hell of a fight, took their rival Buccaneers to OT, and eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs. They finished 5-12, but Bryce Young showed the team and every Ringer employee he was no bust. The draft proved the team has invested its future into Bryce. Outside of their division, the schedule isn’t rosey. Drawing the AFC East won’t be easy with the exception of the Dolphins. Even the Jets with seemingly legitimate head coaching will be a long day. But they do get the Jaguars in the opener. 7 wins for a team that covered 5 of 7 game spreads against several playoff teams after the bye piques my interest.

I’m Vita Vea’s replacement (in two years)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Over 9.5 Wins
I admit, the Bucs are a weird fucking team. They were 4-6 going into their bye week and had lost 4 games in a row. Maybe they spent their bye on Isla de Muerta to pick up cursed gold cuz those guys went 6-1, if not for the Cowboys, the rest of the way. They lost to an incredible Commanders team in close fashion who went on to the NFC title game. The prior year also had a 4 game losing streak which was matched by a 4 game winning streak and a hard fought division round loss against the Lions.

The Bucs snagged WR Emeka Egbuka in the draft for the future with veterans Mike Evans and Chris Goodwin nearing the ends of their careers. CBs Benjamin Morris and Jacob Pariah fill needs in an always injured secondary force to call upon the practice squad. Oh! And they signed 6′ 6″ 464 LB undrafted free agent defensive tackle Desmond Watson, the heaviest player in NFL history, destined to replace Vita Vea.

Head Coach Todd Bowles told ESPN’s Jenna Laine “to judge him right now is very early, and we didn’t get him for the tush push — we got him because we really thought he could play.” Bowles continued “right now, we just have to see how long he can stay on the field, andnput him on a program where we think he can make some progress.” Watson still needs to make the roster but he’s slimmed down 27 LBs while in rookie mini-camp. I’m clearly way too invested in his success.

This team has veterans under contract, except Evans who is entering his final year, and bunch of young new players. 10-7 again in a division they’ve won two years straight makes a lot of sense. They’re by far the most stable franchise in the division too. Where things might go off the rails for this team though will be weeks 16 and 18 when the Bucs play their rival Panthers twice in three weeks. Those games will likely decide who wins the NFC South. Until I see someone consistently beat them for the division I’ll stick with the Bucs.

CJ? More like JC!

Houston Texans, Over 9.5 Wins
The CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans Texans regime finished it’s first two years losing in the divisional round to the well established Ravens and Super Bowl champion Chiefs… But apparently they’ll have to prove themselves to Mt. Carmel High School coach Diante Lee.

Anyways… I’m feeling pretty good about my Texans PROVING themselves to ole Diante, a man with more football credibility than anyone I’ve ever known, after going 10-7 (and hitting the over) two seasons in a row. Just to appetize even more, you can get the over at +100. They’ll taste the AFC Championship this year (+950). Two years of close losses in the Divisional they’re ready for the next logical progression. They’ve continued to draft well adding WRs Jaylen Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and resigning key contributors to the team.

The strength of schedule for the Texans is middling amongst most evaluators, although I see this schedule in the top third of difficulty. The NFC West is a clunky division with the Rams looking to make another run, an aging but retooling 49ers, and two pretty beatable teams in Seattle and Arizona. Not fun to have to play the Bucs out of conference, Ravens, and everyone in the AFC West, my pick for toughest division. Still, 10 wins getting to play the Colts, Titans, and Jags is likely 5 to 6 wins right there. They should at least split the NFC West. Maybe even split the AFC West. 10 wins should be easy money at +100 with a PROVEN track record.

Jim Harbaugh: “I’m just here so I won’t get fined.”

Las Vegas Raiders, Over 6.5 Wins
Maybe this will be the year I won’t thrust another pencil up my anus after another lost Raider season. No, this year does indeed feel different. The hiring of GM John Spytek and Head Coach Pete Carroll states an organizational goal of regaining credibility and respect in this league. New minority owner and Mark Davis whisperer Tom Brady provides stability at the top this team lost after Al Davis just simply got too old. Gruden had the team moving in the right direction before Daniel Snyder allegedly leaked his emails to the New York Times.

Since their Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneer the Raiders have only had two seasons of note. Both of which ended with Derek Carr breaking his fibula and Derek Carr mismanaging the end of game clock versus Cincinnati. I don’t give a rat’s ass what anyone thinks, if Carr just manages the clock correctly Raiders win that game. Cincy went on to lose in the Super Bowl.

This new administration completely fabrises the stench of Antonio Pierce, Josh McDaniels, Carr, and Gru who returned to the FFCA feeling nicey! Spytek spent his first draft truly building a team from both need and value. Admittedly I didn’t love the Jeanty pick at first; however, you combine him with the best quarterback they’ve had since MVP Rich Gannon, incredible skill players lead by Brock Bowers, and an improving line with LT Kolton Miller and C Jackson Powers-Johnson there’s enough talent (finally) to be a serious threat on offense every Sunday.

Funny how Geno Smith hasn’t even taken an in game snap and I’ve already anointed him the best Raiders QB since Gannon. That should tell all you non-Raider and Saint fans what it’s like living in QB mediocrity-hell.

Raiders added WR Jack Bech from TCU in the second round who will immediately contribute as a rookie both inside and out. By seasons end he’ll be the number 2 receiver. The Raiders used their high end picks to accumulate more picks which they used to bluster both sides of the line and the receiver room.

Regaining credibility is the prime objective this season. Raiders shouldn’t be favored in most games but I’m calling a split in the AFC West with all their rivals in the back half of the season (hopefully fucking over the Chiefs in the regular season finale). We also get the Bears, Titans, Browns, Giants, Jags, and Cowboys at home. For some reason we’ve been a thorn in Dallas’s side over the past few years.

There’s a clear road to 7 wins for this squad looking to gain back the honor to which their used to mean something in this league. There’s gonna be an upset win against a playoff team I can’t predict. Mostly, I just don’t want my hemorrhoids popped by lead point again.

Win Total Data: Vegas Insider

Looking Live at NFL Thursday Night, Week 4

Summer is the busiest time of year for me professionally. My responsibilities as Project Manager varies in scope and in phases of that scope, but in the warm months I try to complete as many construction projects as possible. So… I just ran out or lacked the energy to write out my week 3 picks for the NFL spreads. My self esteem aches, just a bit, when I miss write out my weekly picks. Feels like failure. No one cares so it’s only a personal failure to me, but I detest missing a mandate I made for myself.

Anyways… My professional life has bled into my personal time, but the stress of deadlines and demands have started to calmed. I know I can write this post for Thursday Night Football in peace. I “plan” to make my picks for Sunday’s slate this weekend. I wish I had more to say other than I’m actually glad I made zero picks for week 3. Most teams who were projected to cover (by so called experts) failed harder than my own personal failure. I expect more of the same this week, but after week 5 we’ll know if teams like Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, and others have the coaches, players, and organizational know how to make a deep run in January and beyond.

More on that after next week… We go to East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Thursday Night, Cowboys @ Giants: Giants +6, Under 45.5

Through 3 weeks of football, spreads of 6 or more have been covered 13 times already. Feels like a lot. Scoring and passing is down league wide. Run scoring is up significantly. Dallas doesn’t deserve 6 points on the road with their performance over the last two weeks. Do I feel confident in the Giants? Not really; however, Danny Dimes has connected with rookie stud Malik Naybers for 3 touchdowns over the last two weeks. The Giants feel like they’re on an upswing while Dallas sputters out of control. I wouldn’t touch the moneyline for either team here, and yes last year Dallas embarrassed the Giants winning by 32 points or more. But that was last year. This Dallas team is less talented, hasn’t found itself on defense, and can’t run the ball. Everything is on Dak Prescott and he’s not talented enough to carry the team as they figure themselves out in season. 6 is too many points. Giants cover and 45.5 points is too many if this season has taught me anything thus far.

Photo: Izaac Crayton

All spread from BetNow.eu

Looking Live at NFL Week 2, 2024

It’s been a hell of a long week… My work has burned me out so let’s just get to the goods:

Chris Berman Primetime Block
  1. Sunday, Bucs @ Lions: Bucs +7.5, Under 51.5
    • Reading the injury reports, I understand the line moving up a point to a point and half, but I don’t care. I like this Bucs team for the season, and they exceeded my expectations last week. I expect the Lions to win at home, but not by more than 7 points. No sir. Both teams at their core are mostly the same and sured up their rosters over the offseason. Through 3 quarters in the divisional round last post-season the Bucs were even with the Lions. In the 4th quarter the Lions pulled ahead but the Bucs were driving down to try to even the score. Mayfield turned it over but that game was incredibly competitive. I will be expecting more of the same this Sunday.
  2. Sunday, Bengals @ Chiefs: Bengals +6, Under 48
    • This may be the trickiest spread of the week. When Mahomes is favored by 3 or less he covers, 4 or more the dog catches him. Thanks Mike! But the Bengals were a mess last week, and historically “start slow” the first 4 weeks of the season. I have to expect a better outing from the Bengals this week, even if they lose. Winning by more than a touchdown is unlikely if the Bengals play their game.
B-Dubs Express (The Watchables)
  1. Sunday, Colts @ Packers: Colts -2.5, Over 40.5
    • This is a once in a lifetime opportunity… Don’t get Jedi mind tricked. This is most likely the last time have the good fortune to beat against Malik Willis. That’s it. That’s my analysis. Malik Willis is starting. Don’t over think it. Also Richardson is gonna have a day. I can feel it.
  2. Sunday, 49ers @ Vikings: 49ers -4.5, Over 46
    • I’m soooooo tempted to pick the Vikings to cover, especially at home, but the 49ers know Sam Darnold well. Kyle Shanahan’s program keeps rolling like a Terminator. They didn’t skip a beat without their McCaffrey. I expect more of the same this week.
  3. Sunday, Rams @ Card: Rams PK, Over 47.5
    • This should be a whole lot of fun! Rams will win. I realize they have a lot of injuries but this is a program I trust. The Cards covered last week (barely) but I can’t stand Kyler and I don’t believe in him.
Phil Simms Bland Bananas (Barely Watchable)
  1. Sunday, Saints @ Cowboys: Cowboys -6, Under 46.5
    • Half the league can probably put 40 on the Panthers. I doubt Derek Carr and gang can put up more than 30 on the Cowboys on the road. No, I think they come back to earth and the Cowboy go another weak feasting on subpar organizations.
  2. Sunday, Browns @ Jags: Jags -3, Under 41
    • I don’t trust the Jags, but this is a pick against the Deshaun Watson and a Browns defense that’s not been same on the road under Jim Schwartz. Sliding doors, again, as I wrote for Thursday Night, Jags were just a few yards short of putting the Fins away last week. Now they are home when it’s probably the hottest and most humid during the day. I expect a bounce back for the Jags by more than 3 points.
  3. Sunday, Jets @ Titans: Titans +3.5, Under 41
    • Ah shit… Here we go again… Titans should’ve had it last week. Aaron Rodgers ain’t no rookie, but the Jets offensive and defensive lines are still quite questionable. Their depth not as great as they allude to the media. Rob Saleh will lose his job this year, probably when the season ends. Jets fans are in for a rough one. I will say if the Titans fail to cover again I’m out on them, but cheese was pretty good last week.
Bridge to Nowhere
  1. Sunday, Chargers @ Panthers: Chargers -5, Over 38.5
    • The Panthers are again the worst team in the NFL. Bryce Young is on track to get benched this season. I expect the Chargers to smoke the Panthers by more than a touchdown.
  2. Sunday, Seahawks @ Pats: Seahawks -3, Under 38
    • Patriots fall back to earth this week and Seattle take care of business on the road. I’m sure the Pats will play hard and keep it close for a while, but Seattle just has more talent and seem far more prepared. One area of concern though, Seattle’s offensive line is weak. This is the one area the Pats can exploit.
  3. Sunday Night, Bears @ Texans: Texans -6.5, Under 45
    • You know how I feel about my Texans and the Titans handed the Bears a W last week. This one should be on BLOW OUT alert. You thought Tennessee was fast last week Caleb? Get ready for the Ryans defense.
Montezuma’s Revenge
  1. Sunday, Raiders @ Ravens: Ravens -9, Under 41.5
    • Yeah… My team stinks, there are better days in the next few weeks but this offense is a mess. Luke Getsy will coach for University of America Samoa in two years. The Ravens cannot afford to go 0-2 and have their shit together more than my dumb team which wouldn’t go for it on 4th down on inside enemy territory. No we are not worth of 9 points to this team.
  2. Sunday, Giants @ Condoms: Condoms -1, Under 43
    • These may be two of the worst 5 teams in the NFL. Perhaps the significance here may lie in potential draft order in 2025. The Condoms have the worst defense and protection (pregnable) in the NFL, at least that I saw last week. The Giants overall may be one of the worst 3 teams in the NFL right now. This feels like one of those slap fighting matches I saw at the Diegueno Middle School library between two nerds who disagreed over a Yu-Gi-Oh match. At least the Condoms have an offense that should improve from week 1.
  3. Sunday, Steelers @ Donkeys: Steelers -2.5, Under 36.5
    • Yeah this might be the most physical, smash mouth, ugly game of the week. Not a nexus of unwatchableness like the Condoms and Giants, but ugly. Donkeys being dogs at home is rough, but both defenses are tough. I expect a similar type scoring game the Steelers played last week. If Bo Nix thought the Seahawks were tough get ready for Mike Tomlin, TJ Watt, and the Steelers curtain of brutality. Nix will have better days but this will be hard game for him. I don’t expect much from Fields either but enough to put up field goals.
  4. Monday Night, Falcons @ Eagles: Eagles -6.5, Under 47.5
    • This will be a route of the Falcons. They let the Steelers put up 18 points with Justin Fields… This Eagles team is looking forward to giving their home opener a smashing rosing of the Falcan’ts.

Photo: Dave Adamson

All spread from BetNow.eu