Tag: betting

Looking Live at NFL Week 4, 2025

Mabel had anaphylaxis on Monday. Anaphylaxis is a severe life-threatening allergic reaction that can occur in dogs. Histamine and other chemicals are released from the body’s immune system in response to an allergen. Causes of anaphylaxis are insect bites and stings, food allergies, mediciations, and chemicals.

The day started routinely. I woke up with Mabel, equipped her harness and leash, and walked the blocked. She performed her lavatory business, as usual, and I started my work day in the office. At around 9 AM Mabel vomited her entire breakfast and staggered outside our bedroom. A lone piece of excrement in the corner of the hallway to the bedroom. My wife, Lili, an accomplished veterinarian, sprung into action. She checked Mabel’s gums and saw they were pale, almost white.

“It’s probably anaphylaxis.” Mabel began defecating. “I’m taking her to work.” I stayed behind to clean up before leaving to meet my pride and joy, and my wife. A doctor cautiously diagnosed Mabel with anaphylaxis based on her symptoms. Later the blood work all but confirmed it. Anaphylaxis is difficult to diagnose without observing the exact moment a dog interacts with causing agent, for example a wayward ant. The doctor hospitalized Mabel for 12 hours. We picked her up after midnight.

Mabel is fine, but clearly a little traumatized from the event. She didn’t understand what happened to her. Tuesday and Wednesday were spent resting and recovering. Since then she’s back to her old self, thankfully. So how do I transition this into NFL spreads? Poorly, but I will endeavor. The Raiders defecated twos in a row… See! Poorly! Let’s just get into it. The Preseason (weeks 1-4) is nearly over. After this slate we should understand these teams more clearly and better project the remaining three quarters of the season.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 41.5

I don’t care this game is being played in Dublin. Pittsburgh can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers cannot handle push rush pressure this season. Rodgers has been pressured on 30.2% (ranked 27th) of his 96 drop backs, according to Pro Football Focus, going 6/22 passing, 146 YDs, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Granted his line isn’t offering adequate protection but in his prime pressure didn’t bother Rodgers, and that’s the point. He’s not who he once was. This Pittsburgh team as it’s been for over a decade is just middling. I really don’t care who is playing quarterback for Minnesota. I trust Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. Vikings cover and over 41.5 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), O/U 46.5

After two weeks of investing in the 49ers I’m shorting them this week. The quarterback position seems incredibly volatile in San Francisco. Sure Brock Purdy has been cleared to start but back-up Mac Jones is questionable and was limited in practice this week. Both WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are also questionable. Admittedly both teams are a little messy. 49ers beat up on the Saints and failed to cover against the Cards. They were lucky to beat the Seahawks who are looking strong after 4 weeks at 3-1 (3-1 ATS). The 2-1 Jags are 2-1 ATS and are teetering on the “we’re a good bad team” to a good team fault line. Instinctually I’m taking the Jags to cover and under 46.5 points. Just too many points, and the 49ers capricious QB room makes me nervous. Also the 49ers special teams are ass.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5), O/U 44.5

I don’t give two fucks, I’m shorting the Dolphins again. Sure both teams are 0-3 but the Jets are 2-1 ATS while Miami is 1-2. The Jets could be 2-1. In no universe is Miami anything other than 0-3 and they’ll be 0-4 Monday night. I’m not surprised the Fins are favored. Look at the public treads, most of the tickets (57%) and money (53%) are on the Fins to cover (even more so on the moneyline). People just can’t quit a team that was hot for 11 weeks 2-3 years ago. I’m old enough to have seen trendy teams come and go, like the band Fun or the 15 minute celebrity of Sabrina Carpenter. We’ll forget her in a year or two. We’ll also hopefully forget Chris Grier, the longest tenured GM without a playoff win, who has achieved nothing since his hiring in 2016. Nerdboy Mike McDaniel will be back on the 49ers this season or next as some sort of consultant or coordinate. Miami will dump Tua and his salary like Mabel trying to expel the allergic reaction she had from her anus. The longest-tenured current NFL general manager without a playoff win.

Honorable Mention: Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5), O/U 43.5

I texted my dad and my good friend Andrew Murray my picks (I didn’t think I’d finish this blog). I only pick 3 spreads a week but this one really has my attention. The Falcons were just boat raced 0-30 by a terrible Panthers team. After a loss like that statistically teams bounce back and cover the spread over 70% of the time. But this is Atlanta… I don’t take them seriously organizationally on down from their “Super Bowl Winning” GM Terry Fontenot, as Michael Lombardi would say (I miss him podcasting). Washington on the other hand is a well built team and stellar organization. They won easily with Marcus Mariota. I expect more of the same this week. Condoms straight up! Over 43.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 3, 2025

Woof! Rough 7 days for your buy. Since my last very scrambled, by the seat of my pants, post I have been under the weather, traveled our east for wedding, and came back home to immediately get back to work. My career has reached new peaks of responsibility and pushed my bandwidth professionally and personally wider. I’m learning to manage it all. Feels like things always slip. I want to just hammer this post to keep it going and look forward to better days. There’s only one more wedding, a few work trips, and then finally the holidays for me to slow down and have more time to watch and think about football. Shoot, I almost paid for subscription for VSIN’s platform to better monitor the public betting market so I can watch how the squares and sharps bet. I do truly want to improve my betting knowledge and acumen. To do that though involves more money and time. Browns defense clench the explosive Baltimore offense for as long as possible.

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 41 ½

Cleveland let me down last week, but I’m still buying the Browns to cover this week (and most likely next week). With 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter the Browns only trailed 10 points after scoring a touchdown. Unfortunately the Browns continue to turn the ball over in pu pu platter of turnovers. Pencil QB Joe Flacco in for at least one interception, should be -1.5 INTs every game, and maybe a fumble too. Still, I’m buying Browns covers if you’re selling. Packers have looked dominate through two weeks against a middling Commanders defense and a Lions defense ranked around 10 or 11th in total defense (but haven’t looked it). They now face a Browns defense ranked first in total defense. First in rushing defense and third in passing defense. Take the Packers moneyline but give me Browns covering 7.5 and under 41.5 points. Monitoring public betting via Sports Betting Dime at the start of the week most of the bets and money were for the Browns covering when the line opened at 5.5 points. 59% of the tickets are still on the Browns but the money is split 50/50 24 hours before the game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5), O/U 44 ½

This is the first sharp lead bet for me in 2025. 64% of the tickets are on the Eagles to cover but 67% of the money is on the Rams. I like the Rams straight up and under 44.5 points. The Eagles are also due for a loss. The won and covered a wacky season opener to the Cowboys which DT Jalen Carter kicked out before the first snap of the game and a long rain delay. Cowboys looked pretty good in that game, who knows what happens if there is no rain delay. I was certain last week the Chiefs would win straight up to avoid going 0-2. The Eagles took care of business in an unsexy but business like manner. I have a newfound respect for QB Jalen Hurts when he says “we won the fucking game” to DT Chris Jones. So many quarterbacks like Bears QB Caleb Williams are more interested in playing hero ball or doing something interesting instead of just playing to win the game. QB Matthew Stafford plays to win too. The Texans defense presented a great defensive challenge, but the Rams won and covered. They played a very frisky Titans team who gave them all they could handle until the Rams pulled away late in the third quarter. The Rams are ready for this challenge too.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5), O/U 45 ½

I kick myself last week for not making the 49ers one of my top 3 picks. Perhaps the news of QB Mac Jones getting the start late in the week prevented me from doing so. I told my football text group I loved Jones getting the start and he rewarded my faith going 26/39, 279 YDs, and 3 TDs on the road! I expect more of the same at home versus a Cardinals team who is 2-0 against the Saints and Panthers. I was traveling last weekend as I wrote in the intro, so I have no idea what was said on the pregame shows, but let’s not forget Jones was the player Head Coach Kyle Shanahan wanted. I expect Jones to maintain the ship while Purdy recovers from turf toe. I’ll continue monitoring the Niners for their success until further notice. The Cards however are a bottom half offense and defense who have beat up on two lottery teams. We’ll learn a lot about both teams, but this is about betting before the outcome occurs. I’m buying the 49ers under Mac Jones until further notice, and I have never bought a Kyler Murray lead squad in the NFL, to Kevin Clark’s SHOCK!!! 49ers covers and over 45.5 point.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Adrian Curiel

Looking Live at NFL Week 1, 2025

The start of the football season varies for most people. For my dad, probably Labor Day. For me, Guess The Lines for week 1 on the Bill Simmons podcast. I have been miseribly awaiting for the NFL to return. Don’t talk to me about pre-season. Nobody likes army rations. We all suffered a sports draught this past July and August with no NBA and no Olympics. Love ya MLB but you can’t fill my fix. Neither could ESPN, FS1, and all the other media outlets. Even today, Labor Day, feels like the first day we’re getting serious football coverage, CFB or NFL.

I’m dying to be inundated with football talk, can’t get enough, and I’m just not getting it. Sure, Guess The Lines dropped last night but I want more. Where is it? Hopefully as ramp up to Thursday’s season opener kicks in we’ll have more non-stop NFL programming. We need to hear more about player injuries (some key ones coming up!) and betting trends. There are 9 divisional games in week 1, the most in week 1 since 2020, so you’d think we’d hear more about divisional trends. Well the Action Network has the goods. Week 1 divisional home dogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010. Point? Over the past 15 years home divisional dogs cover greater than 76% of the time in week 1. In the past 7 years that rate is over 83%!

Let’s look big picture now. Underdogs, in week 1, of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since 2006. Dogs are under .500 ATS in just 1 of those 19 seasons. We’ve got 4 matchups in week 1 of 6.5 or higher. Best believe folks will betting on those dogs to cover. Since 2016, underdogs are 132-90-6 ATS in week 1 covering 60% of the spread. Dogs are at least .500 ATS or better every single year the last 9 years. Basically, if in doubt bet the dogs, which is music to my ears. I picked 8 dogs in week 1, speaking of which I decided to track my picks each week (for better or worse) for the public to see.

I may not be podcasting anymore or have the same time to research as I did in the past, but dammit I need this action. Every week I still want to go through this like a routine. Who cares if I suck at it. I HAD TO GET ON MAN!!! Ok, enough posturing. Here are my three favorites of week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons, O/U 46 ½

Soooooooo… I know a few paragraphs ago I wrote divisional home dogs in the past 7 years cover 83% of the time in week 1… But I’m taking my Bucs to cover on in Atlanta. While many have the Falcons offensive line ranked in the top 10 this offseason, I do not, they lost starting RT Kaleb McGary for the season. McGary was arguably their most valuable player lead blocking for RB Bijan Robinson and protecting the blindside of the left-handed franchise QB Michael Penix Jr. This is Penix’s first season at the helm from jump street. Losing a blue chipper like McGary will haunt this team for the entire 2025 campaign.

The Falcons have addressed this problem by shifting Elijah Wilkinson and trading for Michael Jerrell. These are band-aids players not replacements for McGary. Wilkinson had penalty problems in the past, which bodes well for Super Bowl level Bucs defense. And yes, the Bucs have injury problems too with LT Tristan Wirfs out a few weeks, but the Bucs have known this for several weeks now while the Falcons lost McGary 6 days ago. Overall, I have liked this Bucs team since they acquired QB Baker Mayfield. This year feels like it could be special run with this group. GM, Head Coach, and QB advantage for the Bucs over the Falcons all day everyday for me. While I’m excited to watch Penix run this thing from training camp onward he hasn’t faced this defense before. Also, until proven otherwise, Atlanta’s defense is a joke. Bucs cover and give me over as well.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 47 ½

Cleveland can never justify letting Joe Flacco walk prior to the 2024 campaign. I remind you Flacco signed with the Colts as a backup instead. Watson had a lengthy injury history to begin with. Why not pay for a proven insurance plan? While the Bengals played their starters in the pre-season I’m not buying they’ll magically start faster in the first month of the season. Especially against a rival whose defense will punish them win, lose, or draw. I repeat again, divisional home dogs in week 1 cover over 83% of the time. While the line is under 6.5 I still buy into the data of big dogs covering most of the time in week 1. This may be my favorite spread of the week and I’ll be honing in on the Browns these first 4 weeks as they face 4 Super Bowl contenders in the early Sunday window. I’m assuming they’ll be big to big-ish dogs in each game. I like them a lot right now. Admittedly it’s a gut feeling more than data driven decision. Browns cover. Under 47.5 which is just too damn high.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-6.5), O/U 45 ½

I’ll be honest, half the reason for picking this spread is so I can refer to the Commanders as The Condoms, and for week 1 get a pregnancy test. Abdul Carter and Sexy Dexy are going to get more penetration than Michael B. Jordan at a sorority party. The Condoms won’t cover this time. Last season was magical and a complete organizational and brand rebound for the Condoms, yet they faced very few top tier QBs. Sure they beat Joe Burrow but the Bengals overall were a disappointment. This season they play multiple playoff QBs and face the AFC West. Dogs in week 1 of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since over the past 19 years. Giants win total is set at 5.5 but I expect this team to be frisky dog with the defense alone. Down the road with QB Jaxson Dart at the helm perhaps the team could be a hot team to fade or perhaps bandwagon with. Either way I expect the Giants to see big spreads and salivate my dog chops. Give me the Giants to cover and under 45.5.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Mick Haupt