Looking Live at NFL Thursday Night, Week 4

Summer is the busiest time of year for me professionally. My responsibilities as Project Manager varies in scope and in phases of that scope, but in the warm months I try to complete as many construction projects as possible. So… I just ran out or lacked the energy to write out my week 3 picks for the NFL spreads. My self esteem aches, just a bit, when I miss write out my weekly picks. Feels like failure. No one cares so it’s only a personal failure to me, but I detest missing a mandate I made for myself.

Anyways… My professional life has bled into my personal time, but the stress of deadlines and demands have started to calmed. I know I can write this post for Thursday Night Football in peace. I “plan” to make my picks for Sunday’s slate this weekend. I wish I had more to say other than I’m actually glad I made zero picks for week 3. Most teams who were projected to cover (by so called experts) failed harder than my own personal failure. I expect more of the same this week, but after week 5 we’ll know if teams like Buffalo, Kansas City, Minnesota, and others have the coaches, players, and organizational know how to make a deep run in January and beyond.

More on that after next week… We go to East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Thursday Night, Cowboys @ Giants: Giants +6, Under 45.5

Through 3 weeks of football, spreads of 6 or more have been covered 13 times already. Feels like a lot. Scoring and passing is down league wide. Run scoring is up significantly. Dallas doesn’t deserve 6 points on the road with their performance over the last two weeks. Do I feel confident in the Giants? Not really; however, Danny Dimes has connected with rookie stud Malik Naybers for 3 touchdowns over the last two weeks. The Giants feel like they’re on an upswing while Dallas sputters out of control. I wouldn’t touch the moneyline for either team here, and yes last year Dallas embarrassed the Giants winning by 32 points or more. But that was last year. This Dallas team is less talented, hasn’t found itself on defense, and can’t run the ball. Everything is on Dak Prescott and he’s not talented enough to carry the team as they figure themselves out in season. 6 is too many points. Giants cover and 45.5 points is too many if this season has taught me anything thus far.

Photo: Izaac Crayton

All spread from BetNow.eu

About to Spider 2 Y Banana These Wings!

There’s never been a more prolific start to an NFL season than the first two weeks of Pandemic football and offenses won’t slow down anytime soon.

Quarterback statistics are insane from mid-tier starters up to Russell Wilson who is completing over 80% of his passes with a 140 passer rating. Rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, with a pre-kickoff five minute heads up, have both played much better than most anticipated. Neither had a pre-season or the typical off-seasons rookies enjoy. Gardner Minshew looked like he’s sparking out there the first two weeks with a bunch of no name guys.

Why is this happen?

Offenses and defenses had the same off-seasons. There are still good defenses out there in Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The rule changes I’ve witnessed over the last twenty years have fully come into fruition. Those changes had already made the NFL an offensive league; however, with a global pandemic limiting clubs’ time to prepare the game shows clear favoritism towards offense.

This is what we all signed up for.

None of us are watching for the defenses. TV rating history tells us that. Anecdotally this is true. Rams and Pats played the last “bad” Super Bowl. Admittedly I enjoyed watching the defenses execute their schemes and make adjustments until half time. As the game wore on it felt excruciating watching Belichick and gang suffocate the breath out of the Rams.

I doubt we’ll have any such game this year. Every team so far has scored in the double digits.

The league only sells what the fans want to buy. If the public really loved watching defense the NFL would set rules allowing players to rough up receivers and obstruct them from catching passes. Obviously, that is not the case. As long as some of the defenses can stop a nosebleed or at least be competent it’s a great product. Especially if you love betting the lines.

My buddy Andrew and I started recording what has already been an annual affair in our ten year friendship. We will talk on the phone for an hour plus on Monday or Tuesday and react to each game from Sunday. Andrew will recall my infamous Peterman rant which really got us thinking about recording these conversations.

Let me set the scene for you. Raiders’ first season with Jon Gruden bombed. Almost everything he said turned into a meme or an embarrassing moment for the media grind their axes on. We were losing a lot that season and again I was embarrassed. I was driving home from work one December beaten down from work listening to a podcast when the hosts talked about the Raiders signing Nathan Peterman

I had my window down, stuck in 5 o’clock traffic, and wailed at the radio console “THE FUCKING PETERMAN?!”

At that moment I became completely unhinged. I picked up the phone and called Andrew immediately yammering away. Poor guy could not get a word in to even say hello. My main point of infuriating emphasis was the Peterman was now the fourth stringer. Fourth stringer… Gruden we can’t stop a fucking sneeze and you want another quarterback?!

“THAT’S GREAT WE’RE DEFINITELY GONNA WIN WITH FOUR FUCKIN’ QUARTERBACK?!” Andrew laughed hysterically.

Do I sound maniacal? Absolutely. That’s sports and being a fan, a fanatic. It makes us crazy, but we love it. Otherwise why come back every Sunday in September? I still pace and yell at the tv when the Raiders play. Talk to myself like there’s two of me in the room. Reasoning with myself how we might win this one. When we’re losing I lament how far we are away from hope.

I’m embarrassed. Why the fuck am I embarrassed? It’s just a game. I have no impact on the game. I’m not coaching, GMing, nor playing.

Being a sports fan is completely irrational. I’m all in for another Sunday.

As I mentioned earlier Andrew and I started recording our conversions this season and picking the lines. Minshew was all out of mana on Thursday completely blowing my prediction. I’m glad the Jags weren’t one of my top three lines of the week. I hope to make these predictions a regular blog routine prior to Sundays.

My pick of the week is Patriots over the Raiders -6.5. Patriots are coming off a close loss to the Seahawks that they could’ve won. Great Sunday night game. Raider’s had two close wins and they’re due to come back to earth.

Belichick is not going 1-2. Look for the Patriots to control the clock with an exotic running game and a great mix of passing plays when the Raiders can’t stop the run which they’ve been unable to do in the last two weeks. Cam just needs to hit them deep a few times to loosen the weak Raider defense up.

The Pats’ offensive plan is exactly what the Raiders would like to do themselves, but will not execute today. They will stop Josh Jacobs and force Derek Carr to throw too much against a great Patriot secondary. Bad match up for us. Take the Pats to win by a touchdown or more.

Second pick of the week, Titans at Vikings getting -2.5. Are you kidding me? The Viks are a complete shit show and quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins. Need I say more? I’ll take Tennessee to win by more than a field goal. This one will get ugly earlier if Derrick Henry trucks the defense. I feel bad for coach Zimmer. It’s not on him.

Last pick of the weekend, Lions at Cardinals with Arizona getting -5.5. Again, just say thank you and take the Cards. This is too easy. The Lions are coached by Matt Patricia… There’s not a nickname bad enough for this idiot. Never understood why Jim Caldwell got fired. I’m sure it has nothing to do with him being black…

Anyways, looking forward to week three of football Sunday. Enjoy America. We need the momentary distraction. Monday we’re back to business.