betting lines – Disaesthetic

Looking Live at NFL Week 16, 2025

Ding-dong the witch is dead
Which old witch? The wicked witch
Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead

Finally, the Chiefs are done. The bread line… I mean the penalty line is closed until further notice. No more socialist handouts for Jawaan Taylor. No more Travis Kelce tantrums (although I’ve enjoyed two weeks of humiliation). No more glazing for Patrick Mahomes who can’t throw down field anymore, and essentially became a running quarterback. Of course it’s fun to bag on Kermit, he’s still great and I hope for a full recovery, but for the first time there’s adversity. Perhaps some doubt about how he and the organization bounces back. They are not one offseason away from another dynasty run.

Anyways, who cares about teams out of the playoffs. HA! Who am I kidding? Two of my favorite picks of the week involve non-playoff teams, like a real degenerate! Week 16 has a few loser leaves town showdowns and draft order implications. A Colts loss clinches playoff berths for most of the AFC teams ahead of them. The Giants, Titans, and my Raiders, all 2-12, need to keep losing to retain a top 3 draft choice, possibly the first overall pick. While not a QB heavy draft, these squads need all the help they can get from college prospects. They’ll all have new head coaches as well, including the Raiders who are working to put Sleepy Pete Carroll in the bingo club.

This offseason may be one of the most interesting in years. The Chiefs must rebuild their roster from the inside out. While many excuse their offensive line play with injuries, their performance does not meet the standard of a Super Bowl caliber team. Neither does their defensive line. “Chris Jones has lost a step” is a cruddy excuse. Jones is older sure, but he’s still playing at blue chip level. The rest of the defense needs to step up. Also, the zebras won’t be helping Jawaan and his remaining $27M salary.

Joe Burrow appears interested in greener pastures, or maybe Andrew Luck part deux (hopefully not). The Bengals, briefly, shook their “Bumgels” tag for a couple of seasons, but Mike Brown is still the owner. As a fan of Al Davis’ Raiders and a resident of the greater Dallas area I can tell Cincy fans you’ll never win anything while Mr. Brown owns the franchise.

Regardless of what happens in Baltimore, it’s time to move on from John Harbaugh. I suspect we may be in for a Bloody Monday which will also include the Cardinals, Falcons, Raiders, Browns, and should include the Dolphins and Bengals. I have serious doubts Mike Brown will fire Zac Taylor. The DJ may live to spin a few more records in Miami. Anyways, here’s Wonderwall.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Tennessee Titans O/U 37.5

This one opened at 11.5 before the Mahomes injury. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The 2-12 Titans have more motivation to keep losing to at least reach a top 3 draft choice, despite playing hard each week. QB Cam Ward has started every game this season and playing his ass off. Tennessee’s defense while ranked low by most outlets faces Gardner Minshew, a depleted offensive line, weak running backs, and receivers who wouldn’t start most teams. The defense plays hard and ranks poorly due to their offense. What kind of fight does this Chiefs team have? Not much if you ask me. Say what you will about him, Mahomes kept the offense relevant entirely on his own. Talking heads and blog boys have questioned Mahomes’ leadership, perhaps there’s some smoke, but we’ll find out Sunday how much mediocrity he covered up. I think we’re going to find a black mold infestation. Give me Titans +3 and over 37.5. Man if you took this at 11, walk up to the booth now.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins O/U 47.5

This pick comes from instinct rather than sabermetrics. Sometimes having kinetic intuition serves one better than analytics. For example last week I correctly surmised to bet against Tua in Pittsburgh on a December night. Now Tua is benched, Mike McDaniel still coaching for his job, and rookie Quinn Ewers gets his first start. Ewers is up for this. He starts at home, gets all the first team reps, and faces a Bengals defense dead last in total defense according to most outlets. His scouting report coming out of Texas was mixed. He gets credit for helping Sarkisian turn around the program, going 27-9, 11-1 on the road. In Texas’ first season in the SEC, Ewer’s last college season, he played 14 games, going 11-3, passed for 3,472 yds, 31 TDs, 12 INTs, 65.8% completion rate. Ewers set records with 1st in single-season 300+ yard passing games (6) for Texas, per CFBStats and NCAA data.

So what about the negatives? He’s criticized for being injured regularly and not having a strong enough arm. Well in the past 12 months Ewers has played little meanful football as a benchwarmer for Miami, and arm strength may be one of the most overrated desired traits. There’s consensus Ewers is a developmental QB, and we know arm strength can be developed. Where does Ewer excel? Short and intermediate routes, which require accuracy and precision. He’s had most of a season learning an offense which leans into quick short-intermediate passes to playmakers. The fins are clearly making changes for the future, and the Bengals? Only thing that’s changed is Joe Burrow’s attitude.

“He’s a headcase” as my dad would say. Burrow is justified to be in his feelings. He’s closer to becoming Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer than he is Luka Doncic. He may be checked out; meanwhile, the Bumgals concern themselves with denying per diem, garage sales, limiting Gatorade to the players, saving on podiums, and google the rest of the stories. Mike Brown is a cheap bastard, and the league will be better off when he no longer owns the team. Until then, they’re the Bumgals. Give me Miami +3.5 and over 47.5. Wrote way too much for this poo poo platter game!

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) O/U 48.5

How the hell are the Ravens favored? This is a damn rat line. Something’s wrong with Lamar Jackson. I don’t care that he won last week. The guy was 8-12 passing and still managed to throw a pick to the scoreless Bumgals who are done and checked out. Now he faces a tough Pats team, coming off a loss, who needs to keep winning. Yeah I don’t think so. This one will be short and sweet. Patriots straight up and over 48.5. Now, I will acknowledge the public is all over New England on this one (85%). I don’t give a shit. Pats are 6-0 on the road. I do not believe in this Ravens team. This feels like the game that gets John Harbaugh fired. The Ravens feel overdue for big organization changes.

Looking Live at NFL Week 3, 2025

Woof! Rough 7 days for your buy. Since my last very scrambled, by the seat of my pants, post I have been under the weather, traveled our east for wedding, and came back home to immediately get back to work. My career has reached new peaks of responsibility and pushed my bandwidth professionally and personally wider. I’m learning to manage it all. Feels like things always slip. I want to just hammer this post to keep it going and look forward to better days. There’s only one more wedding, a few work trips, and then finally the holidays for me to slow down and have more time to watch and think about football. Shoot, I almost paid for subscription for VSIN’s platform to better monitor the public betting market so I can watch how the squares and sharps bet. I do truly want to improve my betting knowledge and acumen. To do that though involves more money and time. Browns defense clench the explosive Baltimore offense for as long as possible.

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 41 ½

Cleveland let me down last week, but I’m still buying the Browns to cover this week (and most likely next week). With 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter the Browns only trailed 10 points after scoring a touchdown. Unfortunately the Browns continue to turn the ball over in pu pu platter of turnovers. Pencil QB Joe Flacco in for at least one interception, should be -1.5 INTs every game, and maybe a fumble too. Still, I’m buying Browns covers if you’re selling. Packers have looked dominate through two weeks against a middling Commanders defense and a Lions defense ranked around 10 or 11th in total defense (but haven’t looked it). They now face a Browns defense ranked first in total defense. First in rushing defense and third in passing defense. Take the Packers moneyline but give me Browns covering 7.5 and under 41.5 points. Monitoring public betting via Sports Betting Dime at the start of the week most of the bets and money were for the Browns covering when the line opened at 5.5 points. 59% of the tickets are still on the Browns but the money is split 50/50 24 hours before the game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5), O/U 44 ½

This is the first sharp lead bet for me in 2025. 64% of the tickets are on the Eagles to cover but 67% of the money is on the Rams. I like the Rams straight up and under 44.5 points. The Eagles are also due for a loss. The won and covered a wacky season opener to the Cowboys which DT Jalen Carter kicked out before the first snap of the game and a long rain delay. Cowboys looked pretty good in that game, who knows what happens if there is no rain delay. I was certain last week the Chiefs would win straight up to avoid going 0-2. The Eagles took care of business in an unsexy but business like manner. I have a newfound respect for QB Jalen Hurts when he says “we won the fucking game” to DT Chris Jones. So many quarterbacks like Bears QB Caleb Williams are more interested in playing hero ball or doing something interesting instead of just playing to win the game. QB Matthew Stafford plays to win too. The Texans defense presented a great defensive challenge, but the Rams won and covered. They played a very frisky Titans team who gave them all they could handle until the Rams pulled away late in the third quarter. The Rams are ready for this challenge too.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5), O/U 45 ½

I kick myself last week for not making the 49ers one of my top 3 picks. Perhaps the news of QB Mac Jones getting the start late in the week prevented me from doing so. I told my football text group I loved Jones getting the start and he rewarded my faith going 26/39, 279 YDs, and 3 TDs on the road! I expect more of the same at home versus a Cardinals team who is 2-0 against the Saints and Panthers. I was traveling last weekend as I wrote in the intro, so I have no idea what was said on the pregame shows, but let’s not forget Jones was the player Head Coach Kyle Shanahan wanted. I expect Jones to maintain the ship while Purdy recovers from turf toe. I’ll continue monitoring the Niners for their success until further notice. The Cards however are a bottom half offense and defense who have beat up on two lottery teams. We’ll learn a lot about both teams, but this is about betting before the outcome occurs. I’m buying the 49ers under Mac Jones until further notice, and I have never bought a Kyler Murray lead squad in the NFL, to Kevin Clark’s SHOCK!!! 49ers covers and over 45.5 point.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Adrian Curiel

Looking Live at NFL Week 1, 2025

The start of the football season varies for most people. For my dad, probably Labor Day. For me, Guess The Lines for week 1 on the Bill Simmons podcast. I have been miseribly awaiting for the NFL to return. Don’t talk to me about pre-season. Nobody likes army rations. We all suffered a sports draught this past July and August with no NBA and no Olympics. Love ya MLB but you can’t fill my fix. Neither could ESPN, FS1, and all the other media outlets. Even today, Labor Day, feels like the first day we’re getting serious football coverage, CFB or NFL.

I’m dying to be inundated with football talk, can’t get enough, and I’m just not getting it. Sure, Guess The Lines dropped last night but I want more. Where is it? Hopefully as ramp up to Thursday’s season opener kicks in we’ll have more non-stop NFL programming. We need to hear more about player injuries (some key ones coming up!) and betting trends. There are 9 divisional games in week 1, the most in week 1 since 2020, so you’d think we’d hear more about divisional trends. Well the Action Network has the goods. Week 1 divisional home dogs are 23-7 ATS since 2010. Point? Over the past 15 years home divisional dogs cover greater than 76% of the time in week 1. In the past 7 years that rate is over 83%!

Let’s look big picture now. Underdogs, in week 1, of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since 2006. Dogs are under .500 ATS in just 1 of those 19 seasons. We’ve got 4 matchups in week 1 of 6.5 or higher. Best believe folks will betting on those dogs to cover. Since 2016, underdogs are 132-90-6 ATS in week 1 covering 60% of the spread. Dogs are at least .500 ATS or better every single year the last 9 years. Basically, if in doubt bet the dogs, which is music to my ears. I picked 8 dogs in week 1, speaking of which I decided to track my picks each week (for better or worse) for the public to see.

I may not be podcasting anymore or have the same time to research as I did in the past, but dammit I need this action. Every week I still want to go through this like a routine. Who cares if I suck at it. I HAD TO GET ON MAN!!! Ok, enough posturing. Here are my three favorites of week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons, O/U 46 ½

Soooooooo… I know a few paragraphs ago I wrote divisional home dogs in the past 7 years cover 83% of the time in week 1… But I’m taking my Bucs to cover on in Atlanta. While many have the Falcons offensive line ranked in the top 10 this offseason, I do not, they lost starting RT Kaleb McGary for the season. McGary was arguably their most valuable player lead blocking for RB Bijan Robinson and protecting the blindside of the left-handed franchise QB Michael Penix Jr. This is Penix’s first season at the helm from jump street. Losing a blue chipper like McGary will haunt this team for the entire 2025 campaign.

The Falcons have addressed this problem by shifting Elijah Wilkinson and trading for Michael Jerrell. These are band-aids players not replacements for McGary. Wilkinson had penalty problems in the past, which bodes well for Super Bowl level Bucs defense. And yes, the Bucs have injury problems too with LT Tristan Wirfs out a few weeks, but the Bucs have known this for several weeks now while the Falcons lost McGary 6 days ago. Overall, I have liked this Bucs team since they acquired QB Baker Mayfield. This year feels like it could be special run with this group. GM, Head Coach, and QB advantage for the Bucs over the Falcons all day everyday for me. While I’m excited to watch Penix run this thing from training camp onward he hasn’t faced this defense before. Also, until proven otherwise, Atlanta’s defense is a joke. Bucs cover and give me over as well.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 47 ½

Cleveland can never justify letting Joe Flacco walk prior to the 2024 campaign. I remind you Flacco signed with the Colts as a backup instead. Watson had a lengthy injury history to begin with. Why not pay for a proven insurance plan? While the Bengals played their starters in the pre-season I’m not buying they’ll magically start faster in the first month of the season. Especially against a rival whose defense will punish them win, lose, or draw. I repeat again, divisional home dogs in week 1 cover over 83% of the time. While the line is under 6.5 I still buy into the data of big dogs covering most of the time in week 1. This may be my favorite spread of the week and I’ll be honing in on the Browns these first 4 weeks as they face 4 Super Bowl contenders in the early Sunday window. I’m assuming they’ll be big to big-ish dogs in each game. I like them a lot right now. Admittedly it’s a gut feeling more than data driven decision. Browns cover. Under 47.5 which is just too damn high.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-6.5), O/U 45 ½

I’ll be honest, half the reason for picking this spread is so I can refer to the Commanders as The Condoms, and for week 1 get a pregnancy test. Abdul Carter and Sexy Dexy are going to get more penetration than Michael B. Jordan at a sorority party. The Condoms won’t cover this time. Last season was magical and a complete organizational and brand rebound for the Condoms, yet they faced very few top tier QBs. Sure they beat Joe Burrow but the Bengals overall were a disappointment. This season they play multiple playoff QBs and face the AFC West. Dogs in week 1 of 6.5 or more are 49-27 ATS since over the past 19 years. Giants win total is set at 5.5 but I expect this team to be frisky dog with the defense alone. Down the road with QB Jaxson Dart at the helm perhaps the team could be a hot team to fade or perhaps bandwagon with. Either way I expect the Giants to see big spreads and salivate my dog chops. Give me the Giants to cover and under 45.5.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Mick Haupt