Tag: betting

Looking Live at NFL Week 16, 2025

Ding-dong the witch is dead
Which old witch? The wicked witch
Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead

Finally, the Chiefs are done. The bread line… I mean the penalty line is closed until further notice. No more socialist handouts for Jawaan Taylor. No more Travis Kelce tantrums (although I’ve enjoyed two weeks of humiliation). No more glazing for Patrick Mahomes who can’t throw down field anymore, and essentially became a running quarterback. Of course it’s fun to bag on Kermit, he’s still great and I hope for a full recovery, but for the first time there’s adversity. Perhaps some doubt about how he and the organization bounces back. They are not one offseason away from another dynasty run.

Anyways, who cares about teams out of the playoffs. HA! Who am I kidding? Two of my favorite picks of the week involve non-playoff teams, like a real degenerate! Week 16 has a few loser leaves town showdowns and draft order implications. A Colts loss clinches playoff berths for most of the AFC teams ahead of them. The Giants, Titans, and my Raiders, all 2-12, need to keep losing to retain a top 3 draft choice, possibly the first overall pick. While not a QB heavy draft, these squads need all the help they can get from college prospects. They’ll all have new head coaches as well, including the Raiders who are working to put Sleepy Pete Carroll in the bingo club.

This offseason may be one of the most interesting in years. The Chiefs must rebuild their roster from the inside out. While many excuse their offensive line play with injuries, their performance does not meet the standard of a Super Bowl caliber team. Neither does their defensive line. “Chris Jones has lost a step” is a cruddy excuse. Jones is older sure, but he’s still playing at blue chip level. The rest of the defense needs to step up. Also, the zebras won’t be helping Jawaan and his remaining $27M salary.

Joe Burrow appears interested in greener pastures, or maybe Andrew Luck part deux (hopefully not). The Bengals, briefly, shook their “Bumgels” tag for a couple of seasons, but Mike Brown is still the owner. As a fan of Al Davis’ Raiders and a resident of the greater Dallas area I can tell Cincy fans you’ll never win anything while Mr. Brown owns the franchise.

Regardless of what happens in Baltimore, it’s time to move on from John Harbaugh. I suspect we may be in for a Bloody Monday which will also include the Cardinals, Falcons, Raiders, Browns, and should include the Dolphins and Bengals. I have serious doubts Mike Brown will fire Zac Taylor. The DJ may live to spin a few more records in Miami. Anyways, here’s Wonderwall.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Tennessee Titans O/U 37.5

This one opened at 11.5 before the Mahomes injury. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. The 2-12 Titans have more motivation to keep losing to at least reach a top 3 draft choice, despite playing hard each week. QB Cam Ward has started every game this season and playing his ass off. Tennessee’s defense while ranked low by most outlets faces Gardner Minshew, a depleted offensive line, weak running backs, and receivers who wouldn’t start most teams. The defense plays hard and ranks poorly due to their offense. What kind of fight does this Chiefs team have? Not much if you ask me. Say what you will about him, Mahomes kept the offense relevant entirely on his own. Talking heads and blog boys have questioned Mahomes’ leadership, perhaps there’s some smoke, but we’ll find out Sunday how much mediocrity he covered up. I think we’re going to find a black mold infestation. Give me Titans +3 and over 37.5. Man if you took this at 11, walk up to the booth now.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Miami Dolphins O/U 47.5

This pick comes from instinct rather than sabermetrics. Sometimes having kinetic intuition serves one better than analytics. For example last week I correctly surmised to bet against Tua in Pittsburgh on a December night. Now Tua is benched, Mike McDaniel still coaching for his job, and rookie Quinn Ewers gets his first start. Ewers is up for this. He starts at home, gets all the first team reps, and faces a Bengals defense dead last in total defense according to most outlets. His scouting report coming out of Texas was mixed. He gets credit for helping Sarkisian turn around the program, going 27-9, 11-1 on the road. In Texas’ first season in the SEC, Ewer’s last college season, he played 14 games, going 11-3, passed for 3,472 yds, 31 TDs, 12 INTs, 65.8% completion rate. Ewers set records with 1st in single-season 300+ yard passing games (6) for Texas, per CFBStats and NCAA data.

So what about the negatives? He’s criticized for being injured regularly and not having a strong enough arm. Well in the past 12 months Ewers has played little meanful football as a benchwarmer for Miami, and arm strength may be one of the most overrated desired traits. There’s consensus Ewers is a developmental QB, and we know arm strength can be developed. Where does Ewer excel? Short and intermediate routes, which require accuracy and precision. He’s had most of a season learning an offense which leans into quick short-intermediate passes to playmakers. The fins are clearly making changes for the future, and the Bengals? Only thing that’s changed is Joe Burrow’s attitude.

“He’s a headcase” as my dad would say. Burrow is justified to be in his feelings. He’s closer to becoming Andrew Luck and Carson Palmer than he is Luka Doncic. He may be checked out; meanwhile, the Bumgals concern themselves with denying per diem, garage sales, limiting Gatorade to the players, saving on podiums, and google the rest of the stories. Mike Brown is a cheap bastard, and the league will be better off when he no longer owns the team. Until then, they’re the Bumgals. Give me Miami +3.5 and over 47.5. Wrote way too much for this poo poo platter game!

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) O/U 48.5

How the hell are the Ravens favored? This is a damn rat line. Something’s wrong with Lamar Jackson. I don’t care that he won last week. The guy was 8-12 passing and still managed to throw a pick to the scoreless Bumgals who are done and checked out. Now he faces a tough Pats team, coming off a loss, who needs to keep winning. Yeah I don’t think so. This one will be short and sweet. Patriots straight up and over 48.5. Now, I will acknowledge the public is all over New England on this one (85%). I don’t give a shit. Pats are 6-0 on the road. I do not believe in this Ravens team. This feels like the game that gets John Harbaugh fired. The Ravens feel overdue for big organization changes.

Looking Live at NFL Week 15, 2025

Yeah… so I didn’t keep my promise to myself to write these hook or by crook. Still, no sense in giving up writing. What excuses do I have? I dunno, I got tired. 4 weddings, 8 business trips, and 24 total flights in 2025. Didn’t track my mileage and I won’t do it. My career (thankfully) has finally taken off, the future is bright, and I’ve never travelled more in life. Point is I’ve never watched less football, and yet I have no FOMO. This season has been incredibly… Mediocre.

Ten weeks ago, 40 different QBs had already started an NFL game, the most since 2019. The record for most back-up QBs starting a game in a season was 66 in 2022. This season we are approaching 70 different starting QBs. There’s your moment med-zen.

Since I last wrote, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have losing records and will likely miss the playoffs, Bo Nix and Drake Maye brawling for the one seed, Maye and Matthew Stafford scrapping for MVP, and the Carolina Panthers in position to win the NFC South and host a playoff home game. I had Carolina over 6.5 wins but not winning the division. Tampa lost to a desultory Falcons with no direction put themselves in position to miss the playoffs entirely.

I’ll give myself a pat on the back though for my pre-season picks. At worst I’ll be 2-5, at best 4-5, and most likely 3-5. The Raiders, of course, had their annual colonoscopy out of contention months ago.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5), O/U 41.5

Ok, why am I picking this albatross, poo poo platter, Montezuma’s revenge of a game? If you made it this far, you’re reading a blog about point spreads from an amataur, you degenerate. GamblingProblem.com can’t help you. You’re in! There’s no going back. For us, the action IS the juice! This game cascades like the Epstein files. Spread opened at Jags -9.5 and jumped to two touchdowns. Every media outlet tripped over themselves to report it’s the biggest spread favoring the Jags since 2007.

So why this game? Well what game in 2007 and did the Jags cover? Took a minute but rode my time machine back to December 23, 2007, in Jacksonville when the Oakland Raiders visited Duval County. Whatever the spread was that day, the Jags covered! They smashed the Raiders 49 to 11 behind 3 Jamarcus Russell apple turnovers and 3 Jags rushing TDs. If you look back over the past 6 seasons the Jags have only been favored by 10 points or more once, and failed to cover.

The question is do you trust Trevor Lawrence to cover two touchdowns over third string undrafted rookie Brady Cook? Conversely, do you trust head coach Aaron Glenn and rookie Brady Cook to cover two touchdowns? Did Epstein really hang himself? Why are there so many pictures of and documents pertaining to President Trump in Jeffrey Epstein’s estate? Why are there so many flaws in the Warren Report? Where do the aliens really hide under our oceans? DO YOU BELIEVE?!?! I believe in the Jags -13.5, over 41.5 points. I think you can count on Trevor beating up on the hapless Jets, just like aliens being real.

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5), O/U 48.5

Don’t worry, I’m not writing another Joe Rogan monologue for this pick. You don’t need to say much for a Cowboys squad whose record (6-6-1) nearly matches their ATS (7-6). Cowboys are 2-4 ATS as favorites. The line opened at Cowboys -7.5 and haven’t been favored by more than 6 point thus far in 2025. 63% of the public money has gone to the Cowboys, according to the Action Network. Sure, CeeDee Lamb cleared concussion protocol and returned to practice as a full participant on Thursday. Not too confident Lamb will just go off like nothing happened. Minnesota’s defense and JJ McCarthy seem to be getting healthy and have not been eliminated from the playoffs, yet. Give me the Vikings to cover and over 48.5 points.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburg Steelers (-3), O/U 42.5

Another short take based on intuition and the fact I have vision is 20/20. Tua is averaging 21.25 pass attempts over their last 4 wins, completing on average 13.5 passes (63.53%). Do you trust Tua on a December night in Pittsburg? Against a team with weird luck who needs to keep stacking wins to win their division? Miami is due for a loss (their owner should be praying for one so they can fire McDaniel), and betting against Tua in the winter elements is money! I started looking to build the stats to support this claim, but was too busy running over state lines to place my bet. This one is my favorite of the week. Steelers cover, over 42.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 5, 2025

I won’t be watching football this weekend, nor have I watched any this week. I’m celebrating my anniversary. Two glorious years! I jokingly told my wife over crab mac and cheese “here’s to two more years” which she took to mean our marriage would only last two more years… I recovered quickly by claiming I was starting a tradition. Every anniversary I will proclaim “here’s to [insert anniversary year milestone] more years” to expand upon the many positive years to look forward to. She wondered what I will say on our 50th anniversary. Obviously another 50 years! What else? We’re not dying right?

So far I’m failing, hard, at my picks. Rather than blame myself I’ll borrow from Tom Brady’s assessment of the NFL’s current QB’s and the CBA. Today’s college prospects are less prepared for the NFL than ever. While the transfer portal and NIL has provide the “student athletes” freedom to own their own destiny (and rightfully so), college players seem more focused on collecting every endorsement dollar possible rather than develop their skills for the professional level. Obviously most athletes peak at the collegiate level and thus we ought to encourage them to make good on their brief financial opportunities. Still most of them don’t realize they’re not cut out for the NFL and still persist towards the league.

Gone, likely, are the days of a Tom Brady sticking it out at one university and fighting up the bottom of the depth chart to starter. QB’s especially need a certain number of college starts, wins, and pass attempts before having preparedness for the NFL. The Bill Parcell Rules are a great starting point: be a three-year starter, senior and graduate from college, start 30 games and win at least 23, 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and complete at least 60% of pass attempts. While these rules aren’t fool-proof (look at Tom Brady) it’s a great starting point. I can overlook college wins if the prospect played with weaker talent but still performed well. Starting 30 or more games over 3 years plus 2:1 TDs-to-INTs on a high volume of pass attempts means more to me.

Cam Ward had 2330 passes in college. Anthony Richardson only had 393 attempts. Ward is on a horrible team with a worse coaching staff, yet watching him on Sundays you can see he’s not the problem. Put him on the Colts at the start of the off-season and he plays as good as Danny Dimes. Richardson would be lucky to make any team’s practice squad.

Add these ill-prepared and limited number of fine college prospects to the current NFL CBA. The number of padded practices during the season and training camp are limited, as well as full-contact practice which also mandates recovery days. Two-a-day practices are extinct. The CBA also limits the length and intensity of off-season workouts and in-season practices to promote player safety. I’m not here to do away with these rules; however, these limitations have constrained player development to a point where it affects the quality of the game and overall the product. The player safety paradigm has swung too far towards safety. The game is inherently unsafe and we ought to accept the obvious truth.

We need relinquish some of these limits, otherwise we’ll continue to look at weeks 1 through 4 has the preseason. The three preseason games we have now do not server to prepare starters for the regular season. Over the past 25 years the preseason as mattered less and less as clubs sought to avoid injuries to star and key players. While preseason games told us little about the teams until week 1 it still served developing rookies or developmental players on the fringe. Doesn’t seem to serve any purpose anymore other than to provide on-air content. These inefficiencies in the NFL product will get better. The game has only gotten better in its history and overcome conflicts like domestic violence and chronic head injuries. It will be a few years before the collegiate level figures out how to control and manage the portal and NIL. The current NFL CBA. expires after the 2030 season. Things will change, but not for at least another 5 seasons.

Anyways, I’m not going to pick every game as I usually do. I’ll give my 3 picks, which will be purely based on gut feeling rather than some research and analysis with my gut. Knowing my luck week 5 will be steller with great performances from contending teams while I drive home from the Gulf Coast. I’m giving 4 picks this week. Just had to. You’ll see why.

Giants +3.5

Eagles -3.5

Panthers +1.5*

Buccaneers +4.5

*Fuck it I’m shorting the Dolphins again!!!