Tag: Arizona

Looking Live at NFL Week 3, 2025

Woof! Rough 7 days for your buy. Since my last very scrambled, by the seat of my pants, post I have been under the weather, traveled our east for wedding, and came back home to immediately get back to work. My career has reached new peaks of responsibility and pushed my bandwidth professionally and personally wider. I’m learning to manage it all. Feels like things always slip. I want to just hammer this post to keep it going and look forward to better days. There’s only one more wedding, a few work trips, and then finally the holidays for me to slow down and have more time to watch and think about football. Shoot, I almost paid for subscription for VSIN’s platform to better monitor the public betting market so I can watch how the squares and sharps bet. I do truly want to improve my betting knowledge and acumen. To do that though involves more money and time. Browns defense clench the explosive Baltimore offense for as long as possible.

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 41 ½

Cleveland let me down last week, but I’m still buying the Browns to cover this week (and most likely next week). With 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter the Browns only trailed 10 points after scoring a touchdown. Unfortunately the Browns continue to turn the ball over in pu pu platter of turnovers. Pencil QB Joe Flacco in for at least one interception, should be -1.5 INTs every game, and maybe a fumble too. Still, I’m buying Browns covers if you’re selling. Packers have looked dominate through two weeks against a middling Commanders defense and a Lions defense ranked around 10 or 11th in total defense (but haven’t looked it). They now face a Browns defense ranked first in total defense. First in rushing defense and third in passing defense. Take the Packers moneyline but give me Browns covering 7.5 and under 41.5 points. Monitoring public betting via Sports Betting Dime at the start of the week most of the bets and money were for the Browns covering when the line opened at 5.5 points. 59% of the tickets are still on the Browns but the money is split 50/50 24 hours before the game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5), O/U 44 ½

This is the first sharp lead bet for me in 2025. 64% of the tickets are on the Eagles to cover but 67% of the money is on the Rams. I like the Rams straight up and under 44.5 points. The Eagles are also due for a loss. The won and covered a wacky season opener to the Cowboys which DT Jalen Carter kicked out before the first snap of the game and a long rain delay. Cowboys looked pretty good in that game, who knows what happens if there is no rain delay. I was certain last week the Chiefs would win straight up to avoid going 0-2. The Eagles took care of business in an unsexy but business like manner. I have a newfound respect for QB Jalen Hurts when he says “we won the fucking game” to DT Chris Jones. So many quarterbacks like Bears QB Caleb Williams are more interested in playing hero ball or doing something interesting instead of just playing to win the game. QB Matthew Stafford plays to win too. The Texans defense presented a great defensive challenge, but the Rams won and covered. They played a very frisky Titans team who gave them all they could handle until the Rams pulled away late in the third quarter. The Rams are ready for this challenge too.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5), O/U 45 ½

I kick myself last week for not making the 49ers one of my top 3 picks. Perhaps the news of QB Mac Jones getting the start late in the week prevented me from doing so. I told my football text group I loved Jones getting the start and he rewarded my faith going 26/39, 279 YDs, and 3 TDs on the road! I expect more of the same at home versus a Cardinals team who is 2-0 against the Saints and Panthers. I was traveling last weekend as I wrote in the intro, so I have no idea what was said on the pregame shows, but let’s not forget Jones was the player Head Coach Kyle Shanahan wanted. I expect Jones to maintain the ship while Purdy recovers from turf toe. I’ll continue monitoring the Niners for their success until further notice. The Cards however are a bottom half offense and defense who have beat up on two lottery teams. We’ll learn a lot about both teams, but this is about betting before the outcome occurs. I’m buying the 49ers under Mac Jones until further notice, and I have never bought a Kyler Murray lead squad in the NFL, to Kevin Clark’s SHOCK!!! 49ers covers and over 45.5 point.

NFL 2025 Pick Tracker | Photo by Adrian Curiel

Toughest Beat of the Week #1

The NFL story of the week belongs to Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals and the now infamous homework clause.

Murray officially signed his new five-year $230 million extension on Monday. Later that same day Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network tweeted a screenshot of an “Independent Study” contract addendum which stipulates Murray must complete 4 hours of study per game week, excluding bye weeks, during the contract term.

Ok…

First of all this seems unprecedented for an NFL player’s contract. Per one ProFootballTalk source, it is and does not violate the CBA. With careers like Michael Vick’s in the rearview mirror it’s surprising a contract term of this kind hasn’t happened or gone public before. 

The fact this addendum even exists seems extremely problematic for everyone involved, especially the NFL itself. Is this the first of more homework clauses to come? I hear the drum beat of curmudgeons detesting the dissemination of NBA’s influence.

Extensive film study has been synonymous with not just elite modern quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, but also defensive legend Ray Lewis. I recall Lewis pontificating how the challenging of facing Manning wasn’t primarily on the field but off it. Lewis spent hours upon hours at home watching film and demanded others join him because Peyton was “clickin” the film remote.

Murray on the other hand does not believe he requires intensive studying outside the Cardinals facility. 

“I think I was blessed with the cognitive skills to just go out there and just see it before it happens. I’m not one of those guys that’s going to sit there and kill myself watching film. I don’t sit there for 24 hours and break down this team and that team and watch every game because, in my head, I see so much.”

Kyler Murray to The New York Times

In his playoff debut this past season, the wunderkind posted a blistering 19-34 for 137 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions, before boldly pulling himself from the game.

Colt McCoy not knowing his damn place encouraged Murray to finished the game but that was it for boy wonder.

I can’t, respectfully, only grill Murray for his horrid performance. Head coach Biff… I mean Kliff Kingsberry coaches like DJ Press Play. The Rams physically abused the offensive line and scheme inside and out.

There were seemingly no adjustments in the first half of the game before going into halftime down 21 to zero. Murray look distressed and eventually unhinged when he threw a pick-six in desperation to complete a 6 yard pass.

Not even a healthy DeAndre Hopkins would not have tipped the outcome of the game.

Throw the ball Kyler… Throw the fucking ball!!!

The Rams pressured Murray constantly, covered their receivers, and contained Murray from making plays with his legs.

Was Murray injured? Possibly, but everyone is battling injuries in at this point of the season. Either way the Rams offered very limited opportunities for Murray and his legs to bail out the offense.

The coach is there to support the players and put them in the situations to succeed and win ball games. Kingsberry has never demonstrated consistently this coaching competency.

On the other hand Murray already conceded he can “just see it before it happens” though…

So who should the court of public opinion blame?

Bad coachin’, bad general management (can’t just rely on one receiver), and feeble quarterbacking led to a playoff fiasco. Complete organizational failure.

This homework clause amounts to gross incompetence. You know… I planned to publish this piece on Tuesday. Thankfully life got in the way.

The beat got even tougher!

Thursday evening reports surface the Cardinals removed the independent study addendum amid public scrutiny.

When I drive make a wrong turn I commit to the mistake and get back on course safely, but not these guys.

Both the Cardinals and Murray already agreed to the homework clause. Sure the headlines were embarrassing but don’t forget why you even had it in the first place.

Kyler Murray needs to spend more time preparing during the season, and the fact the Cardinals felt they had to put into his contract screams to the fundamental issue.

Since drafting Murray the Cardinals have coddled and enabled the player.

No one should be surprised at Murray’s behavior and attitude since becoming an NFL prospect whether it’s his awkward pre-draft interview with Dan Patrick, unfollowing and purging all Cardinals related content from his Instagram, or having his agent issue a ransom letter with two years remaining on his contract.

You don’t have to be Adam Schefter to grasp from afar Murray behaves like a stereotypical 24 year older zoomer. Poor “whatever” body language. Facial indifference. Boomers aren’t the only ones guessing he plays COD to relax.

No one is asking Kyler Murray to show archetypal quarterback traits we’ve seen in Patrick Mahomes or even Lamar Jackson. But he does have to show his teammates and the organization he hates losing. That he covets winning.

Holding the team hostage with two years left on your contract after a pathetic playoff performance and a serious lack of commitment to preparation shows Kyler Murray cares more about what comes with being an NFL quarterback than actually being one.

The Cardinals have appeased Kyler with the keys to the team.