Sebastian Langkilde

Looking Live at NFL Week 15, 2025

Yeah… so I didn’t keep my promise to myself to write these hook or by crook. Still, no sense in giving up writing. What excuses do I have? I dunno, I got tired. 4 weddings, 8 business trips, and 24 total flights in 2025. Didn’t track my mileage and I won’t do it. My career (thankfully) has finally taken off, the future is bright, and I’ve never travelled more in life. Point is I’ve never watched less football, and yet I have no FOMO. This season has been incredibly… Mediocre.

Ten weeks ago, 40 different QBs had already started an NFL game, the most since 2019. The record for most back-up QBs starting a game in a season was 66 in 2022. This season we are approaching 70 different starting QBs. There’s your moment med-zen.

Since I last wrote, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have losing records and will likely miss the playoffs, Bo Nix and Drake Maye brawling for the one seed, Maye and Matthew Stafford scrapping for MVP, and the Carolina Panthers in position to win the NFC South and host a playoff home game. I had Carolina over 6.5 wins but not winning the division. Tampa lost to a desultory Falcons with no direction put themselves in position to miss the playoffs entirely.

I’ll give myself a pat on the back though for my pre-season picks. At worst I’ll be 2-5, at best 4-5, and most likely 3-5. The Raiders, of course, had their annual colonoscopy out of contention months ago.

New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5), O/U 41.5

Ok, why am I picking this albatross, poo poo platter, Montezuma’s revenge of a game? If you made it this far, you’re reading a blog about point spreads from an amataur, you degenerate. GamblingProblem.com can’t help you. You’re in! There’s no going back. For us, the action IS the juice! This game cascades like the Epstein files. Spread opened at Jags -9.5 and jumped to two touchdowns. Every media outlet tripped over themselves to report it’s the biggest spread favoring the Jags since 2007.

So why this game? Well what game in 2007 and did the Jags cover? Took a minute but rode my time machine back to December 23, 2007, in Jacksonville when the Oakland Raiders visited Duval County. Whatever the spread was that day, the Jags covered! They smashed the Raiders 49 to 11 behind 3 Jamarcus Russell apple turnovers and 3 Jags rushing TDs. If you look back over the past 6 seasons the Jags have only been favored by 10 points or more once, and failed to cover.

The question is do you trust Trevor Lawrence to cover two touchdowns over third string undrafted rookie Brady Cook? Conversely, do you trust head coach Aaron Glenn and rookie Brady Cook to cover two touchdowns? Did Epstein really hang himself? Why are there so many pictures of and documents pertaining to President Trump in Jeffrey Epstein’s estate? Why are there so many flaws in the Warren Report? Where do the aliens really hide under our oceans? DO YOU BELIEVE?!?! I believe in the Jags -13.5, over 41.5 points. I think you can count on Trevor beating up on the hapless Jets, just like aliens being real.

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5), O/U 48.5

Don’t worry, I’m not writing another Joe Rogan monologue for this pick. You don’t need to say much for a Cowboys squad whose record (6-6-1) nearly matches their ATS (7-6). Cowboys are 2-4 ATS as favorites. The line opened at Cowboys -7.5 and haven’t been favored by more than 6 point thus far in 2025. 63% of the public money has gone to the Cowboys, according to the Action Network. Sure, CeeDee Lamb cleared concussion protocol and returned to practice as a full participant on Thursday. Not too confident Lamb will just go off like nothing happened. Minnesota’s defense and JJ McCarthy seem to be getting healthy and have not been eliminated from the playoffs, yet. Give me the Vikings to cover and over 48.5 points.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburg Steelers (-3), O/U 42.5

Another short take based on intuition and the fact I have vision is 20/20. Tua is averaging 21.25 pass attempts over their last 4 wins, completing on average 13.5 passes (63.53%). Do you trust Tua on a December night in Pittsburg? Against a team with weird luck who needs to keep stacking wins to win their division? Miami is due for a loss (their owner should be praying for one so they can fire McDaniel), and betting against Tua in the winter elements is money! I started looking to build the stats to support this claim, but was too busy running over state lines to place my bet. This one is my favorite of the week. Steelers cover, over 42.5 points.

Looking Live at NFL Week 5, 2025

I won’t be watching football this weekend, nor have I watched any this week. I’m celebrating my anniversary. Two glorious years! I jokingly told my wife over crab mac and cheese “here’s to two more years” which she took to mean our marriage would only last two more years… I recovered quickly by claiming I was starting a tradition. Every anniversary I will proclaim “here’s to [insert anniversary year milestone] more years” to expand upon the many positive years to look forward to. She wondered what I will say on our 50th anniversary. Obviously another 50 years! What else? We’re not dying right?

So far I’m failing, hard, at my picks. Rather than blame myself I’ll borrow from Tom Brady’s assessment of the NFL’s current QB’s and the CBA. Today’s college prospects are less prepared for the NFL than ever. While the transfer portal and NIL has provide the “student athletes” freedom to own their own destiny (and rightfully so), college players seem more focused on collecting every endorsement dollar possible rather than develop their skills for the professional level. Obviously most athletes peak at the collegiate level and thus we ought to encourage them to make good on their brief financial opportunities. Still most of them don’t realize they’re not cut out for the NFL and still persist towards the league.

Gone, likely, are the days of a Tom Brady sticking it out at one university and fighting up the bottom of the depth chart to starter. QB’s especially need a certain number of college starts, wins, and pass attempts before having preparedness for the NFL. The Bill Parcell Rules are a great starting point: be a three-year starter, senior and graduate from college, start 30 games and win at least 23, 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and complete at least 60% of pass attempts. While these rules aren’t fool-proof (look at Tom Brady) it’s a great starting point. I can overlook college wins if the prospect played with weaker talent but still performed well. Starting 30 or more games over 3 years plus 2:1 TDs-to-INTs on a high volume of pass attempts means more to me.

Cam Ward had 2330 passes in college. Anthony Richardson only had 393 attempts. Ward is on a horrible team with a worse coaching staff, yet watching him on Sundays you can see he’s not the problem. Put him on the Colts at the start of the off-season and he plays as good as Danny Dimes. Richardson would be lucky to make any team’s practice squad.

Add these ill-prepared and limited number of fine college prospects to the current NFL CBA. The number of padded practices during the season and training camp are limited, as well as full-contact practice which also mandates recovery days. Two-a-day practices are extinct. The CBA also limits the length and intensity of off-season workouts and in-season practices to promote player safety. I’m not here to do away with these rules; however, these limitations have constrained player development to a point where it affects the quality of the game and overall the product. The player safety paradigm has swung too far towards safety. The game is inherently unsafe and we ought to accept the obvious truth.

We need relinquish some of these limits, otherwise we’ll continue to look at weeks 1 through 4 has the preseason. The three preseason games we have now do not server to prepare starters for the regular season. Over the past 25 years the preseason as mattered less and less as clubs sought to avoid injuries to star and key players. While preseason games told us little about the teams until week 1 it still served developing rookies or developmental players on the fringe. Doesn’t seem to serve any purpose anymore other than to provide on-air content. These inefficiencies in the NFL product will get better. The game has only gotten better in its history and overcome conflicts like domestic violence and chronic head injuries. It will be a few years before the collegiate level figures out how to control and manage the portal and NIL. The current NFL CBA. expires after the 2030 season. Things will change, but not for at least another 5 seasons.

Anyways, I’m not going to pick every game as I usually do. I’ll give my 3 picks, which will be purely based on gut feeling rather than some research and analysis with my gut. Knowing my luck week 5 will be steller with great performances from contending teams while I drive home from the Gulf Coast. I’m giving 4 picks this week. Just had to. You’ll see why.

Giants +3.5

Eagles -3.5

Panthers +1.5*

Buccaneers +4.5

*Fuck it I’m shorting the Dolphins again!!!

Looking Live at NFL Week 4, 2025

Mabel had anaphylaxis on Monday. Anaphylaxis is a severe life-threatening allergic reaction that can occur in dogs. Histamine and other chemicals are released from the body’s immune system in response to an allergen. Causes of anaphylaxis are insect bites and stings, food allergies, mediciations, and chemicals.

The day started routinely. I woke up with Mabel, equipped her harness and leash, and walked the blocked. She performed her lavatory business, as usual, and I started my work day in the office. At around 9 AM Mabel vomited her entire breakfast and staggered outside our bedroom. A lone piece of excrement in the corner of the hallway to the bedroom. My wife, Lili, an accomplished veterinarian, sprung into action. She checked Mabel’s gums and saw they were pale, almost white.

“It’s probably anaphylaxis.” Mabel began defecating. “I’m taking her to work.” I stayed behind to clean up before leaving to meet my pride and joy, and my wife. A doctor cautiously diagnosed Mabel with anaphylaxis based on her symptoms. Later the blood work all but confirmed it. Anaphylaxis is difficult to diagnose without observing the exact moment a dog interacts with causing agent, for example a wayward ant. The doctor hospitalized Mabel for 12 hours. We picked her up after midnight.

Mabel is fine, but clearly a little traumatized from the event. She didn’t understand what happened to her. Tuesday and Wednesday were spent resting and recovering. Since then she’s back to her old self, thankfully. So how do I transition this into NFL spreads? Poorly, but I will endeavor. The Raiders defecated twos in a row… See! Poorly! Let’s just get into it. The Preseason (weeks 1-4) is nearly over. After this slate we should understand these teams more clearly and better project the remaining three quarters of the season.

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 41.5

I don’t care this game is being played in Dublin. Pittsburgh can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers cannot handle push rush pressure this season. Rodgers has been pressured on 30.2% (ranked 27th) of his 96 drop backs, according to Pro Football Focus, going 6/22 passing, 146 YDs, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Granted his line isn’t offering adequate protection but in his prime pressure didn’t bother Rodgers, and that’s the point. He’s not who he once was. This Pittsburgh team as it’s been for over a decade is just middling. I really don’t care who is playing quarterback for Minnesota. I trust Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. Vikings cover and over 41.5 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), O/U 46.5

After two weeks of investing in the 49ers I’m shorting them this week. The quarterback position seems incredibly volatile in San Francisco. Sure Brock Purdy has been cleared to start but back-up Mac Jones is questionable and was limited in practice this week. Both WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are also questionable. Admittedly both teams are a little messy. 49ers beat up on the Saints and failed to cover against the Cards. They were lucky to beat the Seahawks who are looking strong after 4 weeks at 3-1 (3-1 ATS). The 2-1 Jags are 2-1 ATS and are teetering on the “we’re a good bad team” to a good team fault line. Instinctually I’m taking the Jags to cover and under 46.5 points. Just too many points, and the 49ers capricious QB room makes me nervous. Also the 49ers special teams are ass.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5), O/U 44.5

I don’t give two fucks, I’m shorting the Dolphins again. Sure both teams are 0-3 but the Jets are 2-1 ATS while Miami is 1-2. The Jets could be 2-1. In no universe is Miami anything other than 0-3 and they’ll be 0-4 Monday night. I’m not surprised the Fins are favored. Look at the public treads, most of the tickets (57%) and money (53%) are on the Fins to cover (even more so on the moneyline). People just can’t quit a team that was hot for 11 weeks 2-3 years ago. I’m old enough to have seen trendy teams come and go, like the band Fun or the 15 minute celebrity of Sabrina Carpenter. We’ll forget her in a year or two. We’ll also hopefully forget Chris Grier, the longest tenured GM without a playoff win, who has achieved nothing since his hiring in 2016. Nerdboy Mike McDaniel will be back on the 49ers this season or next as some sort of consultant or coordinate. Miami will dump Tua and his salary like Mabel trying to expel the allergic reaction she had from her anus. The longest-tenured current NFL general manager without a playoff win.

Honorable Mention: Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5), O/U 43.5

I texted my dad and my good friend Andrew Murray my picks (I didn’t think I’d finish this blog). I only pick 3 spreads a week but this one really has my attention. The Falcons were just boat raced 0-30 by a terrible Panthers team. After a loss like that statistically teams bounce back and cover the spread over 70% of the time. But this is Atlanta… I don’t take them seriously organizationally on down from their “Super Bowl Winning” GM Terry Fontenot, as Michael Lombardi would say (I miss him podcasting). Washington on the other hand is a well built team and stellar organization. They won easily with Marcus Mariota. I expect more of the same this week. Condoms straight up! Over 43.5 points.