The league took me to the cleaners last week. I still stand by my Panthers pick, the rain didn’t help. I should have known better with the 49ers, no excuse, but I just didn’t trust Sam Darnold. I still don’t. The witchcraft Steelers continue practicing santeria somehow upset Baltimore. I knew I was in trouble when DeAndre Hopkins misread the situation with 39 seconds left in the game. Baltimore should’ve gone up 31-26. Forgot D-Hop was still in the league!
This weekend I need a repeat of my performances in weeks 15 and 16, going 5/6 on my picks. Like Walter Abrams I have something to sell. Stats are not enough. Bettors are ready to risk what they can’t afford, for what they can’t have! In an uncertain world, where Iran is on the cusp of regime change, Venezuela will change regimes, I’m selling the world’s rarest commodity: certainty. Let’s make some money.
Shakey’s Game: Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 45.5
This spread opened at 10 and only moved up half a point. Historically 10 or more point dogs in the playoffs are a mixed bag. 3 years ago Tua and Miami covered as 13.5 point dogs during winter in Buffalo. Just last year the Steelers were 10 point dogs in Baltimore and lost by 14. Most famously in 2011 the 7-9 Seahawks beat the defending champion Saints as 10 point dogs at home (best case for the Panthers). My immediate instinct was sprint to the booth for a Panthers +10 ticket. The argument against, of course, go against the public and Matt Stafford won’t throw 3 picks again, even though he did it the following week. Most of the money and tickets are on Carolina to cover. All fair, but this is the Shakey’s game. For 3 quarters the Rams will dominate and control the game, and in the 4th quarter Carolina weasels to a backdoor cover. Carolina +10.5, over 45.5.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bears, O/U 44.5
Matt LaFleur is about to enjoy beating Ben Johnson twice a year. The Bears have beaten three teams with a winning record. Their defense is atrocious. Johnson talks a lot of shit and enjoys being the aggressor. But like most bullies he’s a bug eyed weirdo with a lot of hype but no real accomplishments. Many readers (and listeners) know I enjoyed criticizing LaFleur in the past, but he’s had the job for 7 years now, 3-5 in the playoffs, and has reached the NFC championship. This is more of a pick driven by my contempt for Johnson, and LaFleur’s experience. Look for Green Bay to shutdown the run game, force Caleb Williams to be the hero (he’ll fail), and rested Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, and offensive line throwing all over the Bears. Most of the betting public is on Chicago. I fucking love the pain the books are about to inflict on people’s wallets. This is easy, lock of the weekend, Packers -1.5, over 44.5.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 51.5
How are the Bills with its abysmal rushing defense, worst of the remaining playoff teams, favored against the red hot Jaguars, at home, who have the best ranked rushing defense? This line is solely based on Josh Allen alone. RAT LINE ALERT! Let’s start with some easy stuff. Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game. The franchise has lost eight straight road playoff games and hasn’t won a road playoff game since the 1992. Jaguars are 7-2 ats at home. 12-5 ats overall with a 13-4 record. While the Bills are 12-5, they’re 8-9 ats. Jacksonville’s game plan will likely take out Buffalo’s rushing attack and force their receivers to make a play. I remind you Brandin Cooks might be their best receiver. I favor defenses in these types best offense vs best defense scenarios. I also believe in Trevor Lawrence. He has “the look” of a guy ready to solidify his status as one of the tier 2 QBs in the league, below Mahomes who is in a tier of his own. Jaguars straight-up, over 51.5.
Shakey’s 2.0: San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), O/U 44.5
If you wanted a two for one special at Shakey’s, you can get in Philadelphia. The Mojo combo featuring the 49ers and Eagles offers something for everyone! Injury plagued Niners. Ice pick in eyes Eagles offense. 49er fans have already accused the NFL of mailing in the fix with assigned head zebra Allen Eck. In games lead by Eck, the Eagles are 8-1, including their victory over the 49ers in the 2023 NFC Championship. Brock Purdy was knocked out of that game with an elbow injury in the first half. The 49ers are 3-6 in games reffed by Eck. The line opened at Eagles -3.5, but now at -5.5 I like the 49ers. Feels too high for a Philly offense which has the entertainment value of paint drying. I realize the line moved up due to the 49ers’ mounting injuries, especially on defense, but Trent Williams seems to be trending towards playing. If he plays, which I’m betting he will, 49ers will make this game competitive. Weather conditions may slog-up the game. 49ers +5.5, BIG under 44.5.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots (-3.5), O/U 45.5
This game I had the hardest time deciding my position. New England will win the game, but it’s their first playoff game with this young core. Weather in Foxborough is gonna suck. I copped out and texted Andrew Murray, Chargers Fan (ha!), his bottomline take. Their line has been a problem all year, but especially since Joe Alt went down. Andrew also hates the Chargers OC Greg Roman. Charger fans complaints center around Roman’s repudiation of solidifying long-term adjustments. The man always returns to his base scheme the following week after correcting an in game issue the previous week. Seems like Charger fans hope to find a new OC in the near future. They might be first in line! Offensively the Pats may be slow out the gate but they’ll likely overwhelm LA in time of position. Chargers may struggle to anything going offensively and be forced into a one-dimensional passing offense. Patriots -3.5, under 45.5.
Houston Texans (-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 38.5
The Voodoo Steelers were a nice story, but the neighborhood Hoodoo has run out of dolls, pins, and mojo bags. The Texans have the best defense in the NFL. They don’t play like a pack of wolves, they’re the white blood cells in your body. If the Steelers manage to get past or even block (for a play) Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., Sheldon Rankins, and Denico Autry (good luck with that) the Texans’ linebackers will locate and erase the ball carrier. The secondary routinely blankets receivers. Sure, DK Metcalf returns after suspension and… It won’t make the difference. Kenneth Gainwell’s quickness might be the tougher assignment for the Texans. Offensively the Texans make timely explosive plays. CJ Stroud and OC Nick Caley found their footing in recent weeks despite inconsistent offensive line and running back play. This will be an ugly, boa constrictor, game in Caribbean Pittsburgh. Texans -3, under 38.5.
Disaesthetic 